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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $112.53EOD only

Max Pain

$126.00

Next expiry Jun 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$10.33

9.2% from close

Price Gap

+13.47

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

100

High premium

P/C OI

0.96

Balanced positioning

Consensus

6.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 18, 2026 close

MSTR Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 22, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Mixed: high vol and bearish flow countered by gamma pinning toward $116 max pain. Confidence neutral at 5.

Confidence:

5 / 10

Base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 5.6% from MP; +1 VIX 17.

Supports: Gamma pinning, positive GEX, DEX long dealers
Conflicts: Bearish flow, spot below MP, high vol

📌Max pain $116 on 6/26 expiry; spot 5.6% below

⚡Gamma flip risk at $90 (17.8% below spot)

📊VIX at 17, elevated but not extreme

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

Vol is High, IV elevated relative to typical range, consistent with event uncertainty.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Gamma positive ($240K GEX) suggesting pinning, but spot below $116 max pain, flip risk ~$90.

Flow Regime

Bearish

Net flow is Bearish per premium context, though absolute size not detailed.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot is 5.6% below max pain $116, indicating potential upward drift toward pin.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Clustered option expiries (6/26, 7/2, 7/10) create event-driven dynamics.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$97.68$121.23

Pin to $116 max pain; $97.68 EM support.

Next 2 weeks

$94.41$124.51

Resistance $124.51; support $94.41.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $116 (2026-06-26); $135 (2026-07-02); $135 (2026-07-10)

EM guardrails: 1w $97.68/$121.23

Support: $100.00 · $94.41

Resistance: $116.00 · $119.00 · $124.51

Gamma flip: ~$90.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 15,262 (17.8% below spot)

Structural: Max pain pins $116 (6/26), $135 (7/2), $135 (7/10); EM 1w $97.68/$121.23; gamma flip ~$90; support $100/$94.41; resistance $116/$119/$124.51.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+240K

DEX: +47.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$90 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 15,262 (17.8% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$240K positive (pinning), DEX +47.7M shares long; gamma flip ~$90.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV rich relative to VIX given high vol and event risk.

Term structure: Contango with kinks at June 26 and July 2/10 expiries.

Skew: Put skew elevated; consider sell put spreads near $90 gamma flip.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net negative $213M, P/C vol 1.21, bearish bias.

Directional prints: 81.3 call 120 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 10k vs OI 2k, heavy buying of OTM calls, bullish bet; likely opening. 79 put 118 ITM 2026-06-26 — Vol 2.6k vs OI 309, bearish put buying; downside hedging or speculation. 78.2 call 110 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol 2.5k vs OI 239, bullish call buying; aggressive upside bet.

Unusual: 268.8 put 45 OTM 2026-06-26 — Extreme IV 268%, vol/OI 4.8, deep OTM put; lottery-like tail hedge. 118.8 put 84 OTM 2026-06-26 — High IV 118%, vol/OI 7.5, OTM put; unusual bearish tail risk. 81.3 call 120 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 10k, 5x OI, aggressive call buying; unusual for size.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot breaks below $90 gamma flip triggering dealer hedging selloff.

!Quick IV crush if pinning fails and spot drifts away.

!Negative catalyst worsening bearish flow.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-31 $115.00/$105.00 put spread Why now: Bear puts capture downside with defined risk; strikes 115/105 target below max pain 116.	Upside reversal if pinning holds above 116; IV crush risk.
Call credit spread	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-07-31 $118.00/$119.00 call spread Why now: Sell upside call premium near high vol; defined risk if squeeze occurs.	Squeeze above 118 from gamma pinning; max loss limited. Liquidity constraints: short_call: Open interest below 25.; long_call: Open interest below 25.
Iron condor	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-07-31 $110.00/$105.00 put wing and $116.00/$119.00 call wing Why now: Collect high IV premium with defined wings; neutral bias fits mixed thesis.	Large move beyond 105-116 range; tail risk. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.

Top Plays

Neutral Iron Condor

Sell 2026-07-31 $110.00/$105.00 put wing and $116.00/$119.00 call wing

Sell wings around $110/$105 put and $116/$119 call to collect premium with defined risk.

Why this play: Fits mixed thesis while harvesting high IV premium.

Credit: $3.06-$3.74

Max loss: $1.26

BE: 106.26 / 119.74

Mgmt: Close at 50% max gain or before earnings. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.

Traders preferring non-directional plays with high volatility.

Bear Put Spread

Buy 2026-07-31 $115.00/$105.00 put spread

Buy $115/$105 put spread to profit from a move below max pain.

Why this play: Aligns with bearish flow and downside risk.

Debit: $4.82-$5.89

Max loss: $5.89

BE: $109.11

Mgmt: Exit if price breaks above $116 invalidation level.

Traders with bearish directional bias.

Call Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-31 $118.00/$119.00 call spread

Sell $118/$119 call spread to collect premium on capped upside.

Why this play: Limited upside premium sale fits moderate bearish view.

Credit: $0.34-$0.41

Max loss: $0.59

BE: $118.41

Mgmt: Close at 25% max gain to avoid gamma risk. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Open interest below 25.; long_call: Open interest below 25.

Traders seeking defined risk bearish exposure.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF MSTR remains between $110 and $116 for one day → Sell 2026-07-31 $110.00/$105.00 put wing and $116.00/$119.00 call wing (iron condor)

IFIF MSTR breaks below $116 support → Buy 2026-07-31 $115.00/$105.00 put spread

IFIF MSTR rallies to $118 resistance → Sell 2026-07-31 $118.00/$119.00 call spread

Tactical Summary

Mixed bias: neutral-to-bullish near term but bearish flow. Key levels: max pain $116, support $100/$94, resistance $119/$124. Preferred play: neutral iron condor to harvest IV. Use bear put spread if $116 breaks. Cap upside with call credit spread at $118.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 22, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.