thetaOwl
HomeOptionsMSTRReports

MSTR

Strategy IncClose $109.46EOD only
Max Pain
$116.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$8.25
7.5% from close
Price Gap
+6.54
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
6
Low premium
P/C OI
0.98
Balanced positioning
Consensus
5.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 22, 2026 close
MSTR Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 23, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish bias with spot 9.7% below max pain $115, but positive DEX (+49.7M) and gamma flip support at $75 provide downside buffer. High vol suggests choppy moves.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; -1 spot distance; +0.5 VIX => 6.5
Supports: Positive DEX (+49.7M), gamma flip at $75
Conflicts: Spot below MP ($115), high IV, mixed flow
📉Spot 9.7% below max pain $115; dealer hedging likely.
🛡️Gamma flip at $75 provides downside support.
📊GEX -$32M indicates negative gamma exposure.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV elevated (VIX 19.5); high vol suggests choppy action.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Trending gamma, negative GEX -$32.1M; flip at $75 from put OI.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed; net premium ambiguous.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot 9.7% below $115 max pain; pin risk at June 26 expiry.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Multiple max pain pins (6/26 $115, 7/2 $125, 7/10 $130) and gamma flip near $75 create event-driven dynamics.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$96.91$110.76
Break $110.76 or $96.91 defines direction.
Next 1 week
$93.19$114.49
Resistance $114.49 (EM), support $93.19.
Next 2 weeks
$89.76$117.91
Gamma flip support $75; resistance $117.91.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $115 (2026-06-26); $125 (2026-07-02); $130 (2026-07-10)
EM guardrails: 2d $96.91/$110.76; 1w $93.19/$114.49
Support: $100.00 · $89.76
Resistance: $117.91
Gamma flip: ~$75.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 14,354 (27.8% below spot)
Structural: Support $100 (round) and $75 (gamma flip); resistance $117.91. Max pain: $115 (6/26), $125 (7/2), $130 (7/10).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-32.1M

DEX: +49.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$75 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 14,354 (27.8% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX -$32.1M, DEX +49.7M, gamma flip ~$75 from put OI.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV rich vs VIX; MSTR implied vol elevated due to BTC sensitivity.

Term structure: Sloping upward; kinks at weekly OPEX (6/26, 7/2, 7/10).

Skew: Put skew elevated; possible put calendar spread for vol decay.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$256M reflects net put premium dominance, bearish skew despite near-neutral P/C volume ratio.

Directional prints: 79 call 117 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol 6200 vs OI 370 (16.8x) indicates aggressive buying; likely bought for upside speculation. Preferred read: bought, bullish. 79.9 call 106 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 1492 vs OI 172 (8.7x) suggests opening call buying; bullish bet. Preferred read: bought. 79.2 call 110 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 6171 vs OI 904 (6.8x) implies call buying; bullish directional flow. Preferred read: bought.

Unusual: 79 call 117 OTM 2026-07-02 — Extreme vol/OI 16.8x; heavy call buying despite high IV. Unusual speculative activity. 79.4 put 104 ITM 2026-06-26 — Vol 3709 vs OI 1583 (2.3x) on put; possible bearish hedge or outright buying. Unusual put volume. 115 call 235 OTM 2026-07-24 — Long-dated OTM call with very high IV 115%; speculative lottery ticket. Unusual given low probability.

Risks & Catalysts

!BTC price shock
!Gamma flip failure below $75
!IV crush post-expiry
!Spot rally back to max pain

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate
Buy 2026-07-31 $107.00/$95.00 put spread
Why now: Defined-risk spread limits cost amid high IV; downside buffer at $75 reduces tail risk.
IV crush post-earnings can hurt short put; limited upside if stock rallies.
Long putModerate-Weak
Buy 2026-07-31 $107.00 put
Why now: Net put premium and bearish skew signal downside; long put captures convexity.
Time decay accelerates; need large move to profit; IV premium expensive.

Top Plays

#1
Bear Put Spread
Buy 2026-07-31 $107.00/$95.00 put spread
Buy $107/$95 put spread expiring 7/31.
Why this play: Defined-risk with lower cost limits high IV impact while benefiting from bearish skew.
Debit: $5.20-$6.35
Max loss: $6.35
BE: $100.65
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit or near expiry if below $95.
Traders wanting downside hedge with capped risk.
#2
Long Put
Buy 2026-07-31 $107.00 put
Buy $107 put expiring 7/31.
Why this play: Captures convexity if MSTR drops below $107, but higher cost and time decay.
Debit: $10.91-$13.34
Max loss: $13.34
BE: $93.66
Mgmt: Exit if MSTR stays above $117 or IV contracts significantly.
Aggressive traders expecting large downside move.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFMSTR breaks below $100 support → Buy bear put spread: 2026-07-31 $107/$95 put spread for ~5.7-6.4 debit
IFMSTR rallies to $117.91 resistance and stalls → Buy long put: 2026-07-31 $107 put for ~11-13 credit
Exit Triggers
EXITMSTR closes above $117.91 invalidation level → Close all bearish positions immediately

Tactical Summary

Bearish near-term bias with support at $100 and gamma flip $75. Key resistance $117.91. Prefer bear put spread for defined risk; use long put only for aggressive convexity. Manage around earnings 7/30.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 23, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.