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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $94.13EOD only
Max Pain
$115.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$6.43
6.8% from close
Price Gap
+20.87
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
15
Low premium
P/C OI
0.96
Balanced positioning
Consensus
7.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 24, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 24, 2026 close
MSTR Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 25, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish bias short-term due to bearish flow and negative dealer gamma; support at $75 flip and $70.86.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
Base 5; +2 GEX/flow; -1 spot distance; +0.5 VIX.
Supports: Bearish flow, negative gamma, high IV.
Conflicts: Above $75 flip, near EM support.
📉Bearish flow and gamma align.
🛡️Support at $75 and $70.86.
⚡High vol, VIX 19.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV high vs HV, event premium.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Trending gamma amplifies; flip at $75.
Flow Regime
Bearish
Bearish: elevated put volume.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot ~$85, 23% below $111 MP.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — High vol, bearish flow, negative gamma suggest downside; VIX 19 supports.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$80.26$90.41
2d: target low end.
Next 1 week
$74.93$95.73
1w: bounce zone at $75.
Next 2 weeks
$70.86$99.81
2w: neutral, downside to $70.86.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $111 (2026-06-26); $107 (2026-07-02); $119 (2026-07-10)
EM guardrails: 2d $80.26/$90.41; 1w $74.93/$95.73
Support: $70.86
Resistance: $99.81
Gamma flip: ~$75.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 14,385 (12.1% below spot)
Structural: Support $70.86, resistance $99.81, MP $111, flip $75.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-54.1M

DEX: +61.6M shares

Gamma flip: ~$75 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 14,385 (12.1% below spot))

NTM gamma: Gamma -$54M, delta +61M, flip ~$75.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV rich vs VIX, stock risk.

Term structure: Front backwardation, flat back.

Skew: Put skew high; short put spreads.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$658M, put/call vol ratio 2.5, bearish flow.

Directional prints: 96.9 put 86 ITM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 50.9x, heavy new put positions, bearish. 104.9 put 83 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 20.3x, large put buying, bearish.

Unusual: 96.9 put 86 ITM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 50.9x, aggressive put buying, bearish signal. 97.7 call 90 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 42.5x, high call volume, possibly bearish hedge. 104.9 put 83 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 20.3x, large put buying, bearish.

Risks & Catalysts

!Below $75 fast selloff.
!Above $90.41 squeeze.
!IV collapse.
!Event risk.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate
Buy 2026-07-31 $75.00/$70.00 put spread
Why now: Bearish flow and negative gamma support downside to $75.
Squeeze above $90 or IV collapse.
Call credit spreadWeak
Sell 2026-07-31 $106.00/$119.00 call spread
Why now: Bearish bias, high IV for credit.
Upward squeeze above $95. Liquidity constraints: short_call: Open interest below 25.; long_call: Wide spread (59%).
Long putModerate
Buy 2026-07-31 $75.00 put
Why now: Expected sell-off, high IV rich for puts.
Time decay if no move.

Top Plays

#1
Bear Put Spread $75/$70
Buy 2026-07-31 $75.00/$70.00 put spread
Buy $75 put, sell $70 put for net debit targeting downside to $75.
Why this play: Aligns with bearish flow and dealer gamma; defined risk, cheaper than long put.
Debit: $1.46-$1.79
Max loss: $1.79
BE: $73.21
Mgmt: Exit at $70 or on IV spike; stop out if price reclaims $80.
Traders seeking defined-risk bearish exposure with support zone.
#2
Long Put $75
Buy 2026-07-31 $75.00 put
Buy $75 put expecting sell-off below support.
Why this play: Direct downside play but more expensive; suited for larger moves.
Debit: $5.69-$6.96
Max loss: $6.96
BE: $68.04
Mgmt: Manage delta; consider rolling if IV collapses.
Aggressive traders expecting sharp drop.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF MSTR price breaks below $75 flip level with bearish confirmation → THEN enter bear put spread: buy 2026-07-31 $75 put, sell $70 put
Exit Triggers
EXITIF MSTR price drops to $70.86 support zone or IV spikes above 50% → THEN exit bear put spread for max gain or reduce position
EXITIF MSTR price reclaims $80 level → THEN stop out bear put spread immediately

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias due to negative dealer gamma and bearish flow. Key flip at $75; break below targets $70.86 support. Resistance at $99.81. Preferred defined-risk play: bear put spread $75/$70. Long put $75 alternative for aggressive traders. Exit on reclaim of $80 or at support zone.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 25, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.