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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $159.89EOD only
Max Pain
$170.00
Next expiry May 29, 2026
Expected Move
±$9.93
6.2% from close
Price Gap
+10.11
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
47
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.89
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: May 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 22, 2026 close
MSTR Directional Report
Analysis based on market close May 26, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

MSTR near $165 max pain; gamma pinning ($+42.8M GEX) and relatively low VIX (17) support grind to $165. Range $151.60-$168.25. Mixed flow conflicts but pinning prevails. IV elevated for MSTR but VIX low creates mixed vol environment.

Confidence:
5.5 / 10
Base 5.5; adjustments: -1 GEX/flow conflict, +1 GEX positive pinning, -0.5 spot 3.1% below MP, +1 VIX 17 low.
Supports: Gamma pin $165, VIX 17, support $151.60
Conflicts: High IV for MSTR, mixed flow
📌Gamma pin $165 with $+42.8M GEX
⚠️Elevated IV for MSTR despite low VIX
📊Spot 3.1% below max pain; potential drift

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV elevated for MSTR relative to its own history, but VIX is low (17); mixed volatility environment.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Positive gamma pinning near $165; GEX +$42.8M, no flip risk.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Premium flow mixed; call/put ratio neutral, no clear directional bias.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot $159.86 below $165 max pain; downside drift risk within 3.1%.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Approaching monthly OPEX on 2026-05-29; gamma and flow pinning dominate near-term price action.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$151.60$168.25
Pinning to $165; stay within $151.60-$168.25 range.
Next 1 week
$146.18$173.68
Post-OPEX volatility; range $146.18-$173.68.
Next 2 weeks
$142.08$177.78
Structural resistances at $170-$172.5; downside bias.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $165 (2026-05-29); $178 (2026-06-05); $180 (2026-06-12)
EM guardrails: 2d $151.60/$168.25; 1w $146.18/$173.68
Support: $142.08
Resistance: $165.00 · $170.00 · $172.50
Structural: Max pain $165 (5/29), $178 (6/5), $180 (6/12). EM guardrails: 2d $151.60/$168.25, 1w $146.18/$173.68. Support $142.08; resistance $165, $170, $172.5.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+42.8M

DEX: +43.5M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: NTM GEX +$42.8M (positive gamma); DEX +43.5M shares. No gamma flip risk.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: MSTR IV elevated vs VIX (17); implied vol remains rich despite low spot vol.

Term structure: Term structure steep; front-end elevated due to OPEX. Event kink at May 29 expiry.

Skew: Skew slightly bearish; opportunity: sell puts at $151.60 support.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Negative $102M net premium; call volume ratio 0.79 but put premium larger, indicating bearish flow.

Directional prints: 62.7 call 170 OTM 2026-06-05 — Vol/OI 4.2x, OTM call; likely bought for upside, but net premium suggests hedging. 62.5 call 162.5 OTM 2026-05-29 — Vol/OI 4.1x, OTM call; similar bullish speculation, yet net flow bearish. 118.3 put 300 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 3.4x, ITM put; high IV suggests fear, likely bought for downside protection.

Unusual: 62.7 call 170 OTM 2026-06-05 — Vol/OI 4.2x, OTM call; unusually high relative volume, possible active buying. 66.7 call 190 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 4.0x, OTM call; elevated turnover without OI growth, may be closing. 118.3 put 300 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 3.4x, ITM put with extreme IV; unusual fear premium, likely hedging or speculative put buying.

Risks & Catalysts

!High IV for MSTR may increase gamma decay
!Mixed flow could reverse pinning
!Spot below MP risks further drift
!Post-OPEX volatility collapse may reduce premium

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Iron condorModerate-Weak
Sell 2026-06-18 $146.00/$145.00 put wing and $182.00/$182.50 call wing
Why now: Gamma pinning and mixed flow support mean reversion; IV elevated for premium sale.
Spot breaks outside wings; gamma decay accelerates if pinning fails. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Volume below 5.
Put credit spreadModerate
Sell 2026-06-18 $146.00/$145.00 put spread
Why now: Put skew elevated; max pain support and low VIX favor credit sale.
Sharp drop below short strike; limited but real tail risk.
Call calendarModerate-Weak
Sell 2026-06-12 $175.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $175.00 call
Why now: Near-term IV elevated; longer-dated vol relatively lower but upside exposure.
Spot drops; short call caps gains; term structure flattens.
Short strangleConditional
Sell 2026-06-18 $142.00 put + sell $187.50 call
Why now: Elevated IV and range-bound thesis favor premium decay; max pain anchor.
Large move beyond wings; margin expansion; gamma risk near expiration. Liquidity constraints: short_call: Volume below 5.

Top Plays

#1
Bullish Put Credit Spread
Sell 2026-06-18 $146.00/$145.00 put spread
Sell put spread to collect premium near support, benefiting from gamma pinning and low volatility.
Why this play: Best alignment with max pain support, low VIX, and bearish flow hedging. Liquid and defined risk.
Credit: $0.27-$0.33
Max loss: $0.67
BE: $145.67
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit or at expiration. Adjust if spot breaks below $142.08 invalidation.
Traders seeking high probability, defined-risk bullish exposure.
#2
Range-Bound Iron Condor
Sell 2026-06-18 $146.00/$145.00 put wing and $182.00/$182.50 call wing
Sell wings outside expected range to profit from time decay and IV contraction.
Why this play: Captures premium from elevated IV in a pinning environment. Limited risk despite lower liquidity.
Credit: $0.36-$0.44
Max loss: $0.56
BE: 145.56 / 182.44
Mgmt: Exit at 50% of credit or adjust wings if range breaks. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Volume below 5.
Range traders comfortable with illiquid strikes and defined risk.
#3
IV Skew Calendar Call
Sell 2026-06-12 $175.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $175.00 call
Sell near-term call, buy later call to profit from IV decline and time decay.
Why this play: Exploits elevated near-term IV vs. lower back-month vol. Limited upside but defined risk.
Debit: $5.99-$7.32
Max loss: $7.32
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Close if near-term IV drops sharply or underlying moves past short strike.
Volatility traders anticipating IV contraction with minor upside.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF MSTR holds above $142.08 support with volume → THEN enter PCS $146/$145 put credit spread for 0.27-0.33 credit
IFIF MSTR trades between $151.60 and $168.25 for 2 days → THEN enter IC $146/$145 Put & $182/$182.50 Call for 0.36-0.44 credit
IFIF near-term IV declines 10% and MSTR below $170 → THEN enter Calendar: sell 6/12 $175 call, buy 7/17 $175 call for 5.99-7.32 debit
Exit Triggers
EXITIF MSTR closes below $142.08 → THEN exit PCS immediately
EXITIF MSTR breaks above $170 or below $142.08 → THEN exit IC
EXITIF MSTR drops below $142.08 or IV spikes → THEN exit Calendar

Tactical Summary

MSTR near $165 max pain with gamma pinning and low VIX (17) supports grind to $165. Range $151.60-$168.25. Bias neutral-to-bullish. Risk: high IV decay, mixed flow reversal, sub-$142 drift. Best play: PCS for high-probability bullish. IC & Calendar for range/vol plays.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on May 26, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.