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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $184.42EOD only

Max Pain

$170.00

Next expiry May 15, 2026

Expected Move

±$10.10

5.5% from close

Price Gap

-14.42

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.87

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

5.5/10

Consensus signal

Published snapshot: May 12, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 12, 2026 close

MSTR Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 13, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish near-term; gamma pins near $170, spot above max pain. VIX moderate supports bias. Mixed flow requires caution.

Confidence:

5.5 / 10

Base 5.5: +1 GEX pinning, -1 flow conflict, -0.5 spot above MP, +1 VIX supportive

Supports: Gamma pinning, spot above MP, VIX moderate
Conflicts: Mixed flow, high vol environment

📌GEX +$65.4M pins near $170, supports bounce

⚠️High vol suggests rich premium; manage size

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High vol; VIX 17.87, MSTR IV elevated.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Positive gamma ($65.4M); pinning at $170; no flip nearby.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed premium flow; not extremely directional.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot 4.7% above max pain ($170); bullish pinning zone.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — 2-day expiry of 5/15 max pain; gamma flip risk if spot fails support.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$169.88$186.18

Gamma pinning near $170; resistance $186.18

Next 1 week

$162.88$193.18

Wide range $162.88-$193.18; momentum key

Next 2 weeks

$158.80$197.25

Structural support $158.8; resistance $190+

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $170 (2026-05-15); $172 (2026-05-22); $175 (2026-05-29)

EM guardrails: 2d $169.88/$186.18; 1w $162.88/$193.18

Support: $170.00 · $158.80

Resistance: $180.00 · $187.50 · $190.00

Structural: Max pain pins: $170 (5/15), $172 (5/22), $175 (5/29). EM guardrails: 2d $169.88-$186.18; 1w $162.88-$193.18. Support: 170, 158.8. Resistance: 180, 187.5, 190.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+65.4M

DEX: +51.6M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: GEX +$65.4M, DEX +51.6M shares; no gamma flip within 30% below spot.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV rich vs VIX 17.87; high vol regime; watch for IV contraction.

Term structure: Contango likely; check kinks near weekly expirations.

Skew: Put skew elevated; consider call spreads for bullish bias.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net -$112.4M, P/C vol ratio 0.83; net selling pressure despite more calls, likely large put sales or call buys.

Directional prints: 67.8 put 157.5 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 4.4: possible bearish put buying or bullish put writing; high volume OTM put suggests bearish positioning. 65.4 call 177.5 ITM 2026-05-15 — Vol/OI 2.1: possible bullish call buying or bearish call closing; ITM call volume suggests bullish anticipation.

Unusual: 67.8 put 157.5 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 4.4, highest in data; OTM put sweep, bearish bias. 109.4 call 115 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 3.2; deep ITM call unusual activity, possibly early exercise or bullish roll. 97.1 put 133 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 2.4; OTM put volume spike, bearish speculation.

Risks & Catalysts

!Break below $170 triggers gamma cascade

!BTC correlation shock

!Resistance at $187.5-$190 caps upside

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-06-12 $170.00/$187.50 call spread Why now: Gamma pin at $170, spot above max pain, defined-risk upside capture.	Upside capped; break below $170 invalidates. Liquidity constraints: short_call: Volume below 5.
Long call	Moderate	Buy 2026-06-18 $180.00 call Why now: Spot above max pain, low net GEX near 180 supports upside.	Full premium at risk; high IV elevated cost.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-06-12 $170.00/$187.50 call spread

Buy $170/$187.5 call spread to limit risk while benefiting from bullish move.

Why this play: Defined-risk upside capture with gamma pin at $170 and resistance at $187.5.

Debit: $6.93-$8.47

Max loss: $8.47

BE: $178.47

Mgmt: Exit on break below $170 or near $187.5; monitor gamma risk. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Volume below 5.

Risk-averse traders seeking capped loss and clear invalidation.

Long Call

Buy 2026-06-18 $180.00 call

Unlimited upside potential from bullish bias and low net GEX.

Why this play: Low GEX near $180 supports upside, but unlimited risk and higher premium make it secondary.

Debit: $13.34-$16.31

Max loss: $16.31

BE: $196.31

Mgmt: Stop at $170; scale out near $187.5-$190 resistance.

Aggressive traders willing to risk premium for unlimited gain.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFMSTR holds above $170 and approaches $180 → Buy 2026-06-12 $170/$187.5 call spread if premium within $6.93-$8.47

IFMSTR breaks above $180 with volume → Buy 2026-06-18 $180 call if premium within $13.34-$16.31

Exit Triggers

EXITMSTR breaks below $170 → Close both bull call spread and long call

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias with gamma pin at $170. Support $170, resistance $180-$187.5. Preferred entry: bull call spread above $170. Aggressive: long call on break above $180. Exit below $170.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 13, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.