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GLD

SPDR Gold SharesClose $373.63EOD only

Max Pain

$375.00

Next expiry Jun 29, 2026

Expected Move

±$4.86

1.3% from close

Price Gap

+1.37

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.58

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

4.5/10

Consensus signal

Published snapshot: Jun 26, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects GLD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 26, 2026 close

GLD Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 29, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias towards $374 max pain, supported by dealer negative gamma and positive delta, with elevated VIX favoring upside pin.

Confidence:

8.5 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow alignment; +0.5 spot proximity to MP; +1 VIX 18 tail factor.

Supports: Dealer gamma negative and delta long; spot below $374 max pain; VIX 18 elevated.
Conflicts: Mixed flow; gamma flip at $360 if broken, bearish.

🔴Max pain pin at $374 is upside target for op-ex.

⚠️Gamma flip at $360; break below can accelerate selloff.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV normal vs GLD typical range, despite VIX 18.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Negative gamma ($-162.8M) with flip near $360, trending conditions.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed net premium; no clear directional bias.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot 1.4% below $374 max pain, pinning likely.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Proximity to weekly max pain pins and op-ex window.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$364.40$372.75

EM guardrail upper bound aligns with max pain $374.

Next 1 week

$358.65$378.50

Max pain for 7/1 is $375, resistance at $385.

Next 2 weeks

$352.00$385.15

Wider range 352-385 with no clear catalyst.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $374 (2026-06-29); $367 (2026-06-30); $375 (2026-07-01)

EM guardrails: 2d $364.40/$372.75; 1w $358.65/$378.50

Support: $360.00 · $352.00 · $350.00

Resistance: $374.00 · $385.15

Gamma flip: ~$360.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 105,378 (2.3% below spot)

Structural: Support $360 (gamma flip), $352; resistance $374 (max pain), $385 (weekly).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-162.8M

DEX: +83.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$360 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 105,378 (2.3% below spot))

NTM gamma: Negative gamma $-162.8M, long delta +83.7M shares; gamma flip at $360.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: GLD IV slightly elevated vs VIX 18, reflecting gold-specific risk.

Term structure: Flat to slight contango, no event skew.

Skew: Call skew elevated due to op-ex; put spreads cheap for protection.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$331M bearish; put/call volume ratio 0.98 balanced, OI ratio 0.57 call-heavy.

Directional prints: 28.2 put 350 OTM 2026-07-06 — Vol/OI 31: aggressive put buying, bearish bet on downside. 4.4 put 367 OTM 2026-06-29 — Vol/OI 22.7: put buying, likely bearish hedge or speculation.

Unusual: 28.2 put 350 OTM 2026-07-06 — Highest vol/OI (31): aggressive put buying, bearish flow. 4.4 put 367 OTM 2026-06-29 — Vol/OI 22.7: large put buying vs low OI, bearish. 25.8 call 412 OTM 2026-07-31 — Vol/OI 18.9: unusual call buying, speculative bullish bet.

Risks & Catalysts

!Break below $360 gamma flip triggers bearish acceleration.

!Sudden gold price spike down (macro event).

!VIX collapse reduces vol premium.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-07-17 $374.00/$375.00 call spread Why now: Defined-risk debit spread captures upside with max pain pin and elevated VIX premium.	Break below $360 gamma flip accelerates downside; put flow $350 bearish.
Long call	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-17 $374.00 call Why now: Direct convex upside with limited downside; cheap premium on vol spike.	Time decay if move delayed; VIX collapse reduces premium.
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-17 $360.00/$359.00 put spread Why now: Defined-risk credit sale benefits from max pain pin and dealer gamma support at $360.	Break below $360 gamma flip; aggressive put flow at $350 adds tail risk.

Top Plays

Bull call spread

Buy 2026-07-17 $374.00/$375.00 call spread

Buy 374/375 call spread to capture pin action with limited capital

Why this play: Best defined-risk upside play leverages max pain pin and elevated VIX

Debit: $0.36-$0.44

Max loss: $0.44

BE: $374.44

Mgmt: Exit at 378.5 or if GLD breaks below 360

Traders seeking upside exposure with tight risk control

Long call

Buy 2026-07-17 $374.00 call

Buy 374 call for unlimited upside potential with defined max loss

Why this play: Direct convexity benefits from vol spike and bullish bias

Debit: $5.33-$6.52

Max loss: $6.52

BE: $380.52

Mgmt: Consider taking profit near 378.5; stop loss at 360

Aggressive traders expecting strong move above 374

Put credit spread

Sell 2026-07-17 $360.00/$359.00 put spread

Sell 360/359 put spread to profit from support at 360

Why this play: Collects premium from max pain pin but faces bearish put flow risk

Credit: $0.27-$0.33

Max loss: $0.67

BE: $359.67

Mgmt: Close early if GLD approaches 360; gamma escalates

Income-oriented traders comfortable with pin risk

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFGLD holds above $360 support with volume < 2M shares → Buy 374/375 call spread at $0.36-0.44 (gld_bull_call_spread_001)

IFGLD breaks above $374 with volume > 5M shares → Buy 374 call at $5.33-6.52 (gld_long_call_002)

Exit Triggers

EXITGLD closes below $360 → Exit all positions

Tactical Summary

Bullish to $374 with support at $360. Prefer bull call spread for defined risk. Invalidate below $360.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 29, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.