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GLD

SPDR Gold SharesClose $387.12EOD only
Max Pain
$388.00
Next expiry Jun 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$6.29
1.6% from close
Price Gap
+0.88
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.56
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
5.0/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects GLD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 18, 2026 close
GLD Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 18, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias driven by positive dealer delta and spot above max pain, but negative gamma warns of sharp reversals. Support at $381.52 and resistance at $392.72 frame the range.

Confidence:
8.5 / 10
Base 5; +2 from strong GEX/flow alignment; +0.5 spot 1.9% from MP; +1 VIX 16.
Supports: Positive DEX (+100.7M), spot above $380 MP, strong support $381.52, normal vol regime.
Conflicts: Negative gamma ($-99.2M), mixed flow, resistance $392.72.
🎯Max pain cluster $380/388/391 suggests pinning near $380-390.
⚠️Negative gamma implies dealers buy weakness, sell strength.
📈DEX +100.7M shares supports bullish delta exposure.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Normal vol: IV near typical levels; VIX 16.4 supports stable environment.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Negative gamma ($-99.2M) and trending regime amplify directional moves.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed net premium, slight call advantage.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot above max pain ($380), bullish pressure.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Structural dealer positioning and max pain pinning across multiple weekly expiries.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week
$378.07$396.17
Range $378.07-$396.17; support $378.07, resistance $396.17.
Next 2 weeks
$381.52$392.72
Range $381.52-$392.72; support $381.52, resistance $392.72.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $380 (2026-06-18); $388 (2026-06-22); $391 (2026-06-24)
EM guardrails: 1w $378.07/$396.17
Support: $381.52 · $380.00 · $360.00
Resistance: $392.72 · $425.00
Gamma flip: ~$360.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 102,018 (7.0% below spot)
Structural: MP: $380 (18 Jun), $388 (22 Jun), $391 (24 Jun); EM: $378.07/$396.17; support $381.52/$380/$360; resistance $392.72/$425; gamma flip ~$360.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-99.2M

DEX: +100.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$360 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 102,018 (7.0% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX -$99.2M; DEX +100.7M shares; gamma flip ~$360.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV in line with VIX 16.4; normal vol environment for GLD.

Term structure: Flat to slight contango; no major event kinks.

Skew: Skew neutral; no structural vol trade evident.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net +$308M bullish; P/C vol ratio 0.87

Directional prints: 23 call 409 OTM 6/24 — Vol/OI 31.8; bought calls for upside 23 put 375 OTM 6/22 — Vol/OI 9; bought puts bearish

Unusual: 23 call 409 OTM 6/24 — Extreme 31.8x vol/OI call 10.7 call 392 OTM 6/18 — 12.5x vol/OI OTM call 23.7 call 410 OTM 6/24 — 6.3x vol/OI OTM call

Risks & Catalysts

!Sharp reversal if spot breaks $381.52 support.
!Dealer hedging from negative gamma intensifies.
!Geopolitical shock or gold price catalysts.
!Max pain pin failure leading to breakout.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-07-02 $393.00/$394.00 call spread
Why now: Positive dealer delta and unusual call flow support upside, defined-risk spread limits cost.
Sharp reversal below $381.52 could result in max loss.
Long callModerate
Buy 2026-07-10 $397.50 call
Why now: Positive net premium and low put/call vol ratio indicate bullish sentiment; long call offers leverage and limited downside.
Time decay if stock stagnates; may lose premium if no upward move.
Put credit spreadModerate
Sell 2026-07-02 $382.00/$381.00 put spread
Why now: Bullish bias and dealer gamma; selling put below support collects premium with high probability of success.
Break below support could lead to max loss; tail risk from negative gamma. Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.; long_put: Volume below 5.

Top Plays

#1
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-07-02 $393.00/$394.00 call spread
Captures upside with limited risk by buying OTM call spread. Edge from positive flow and dealer positioning.
Why this play: Defined-risk upside with strong dealer delta support and unusual call flow, outperforms alternatives due to lower cost and validation level.
Debit: $0.36-$0.44
Max loss: $0.44
BE: $393.44
Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks $381.52. Consider rolling on resistance.
Risk-averse bullish traders seeking controlled exposure.
#2
Long Call
Buy 2026-07-10 $397.50 call
Simple bullish bet on continued rally. Edge from net premium and P/C ratio.
Why this play: Leveraged upside with unlimited profit potential, but higher premium and vega risk make it secondary to the spread.
Debit: $4.23-$5.17
Max loss: $5.17
BE: $402.67
Mgmt: Stop loss at $381.52. Monitor time decay.
Aggressive traders comfortable with higher premium and gamma risk.
#3
Put Credit Spread
Sell 2026-07-02 $382.00/$381.00 put spread
Collects premium betting price stays above $382 support. Edge from bullish bias and dealer gamma.
Why this play: Bearish below support but liquidity fail reduces execution confidence. Least preferred due to low liquidity.
Credit: $0.31-$0.38
Max loss: $0.62
BE: $381.62
Mgmt: Close if spot approaches $382. Avoid if liquidity remains poor. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.; long_put: Volume below 5.
Income-focused traders with high probability outlook.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFGLD > 381.52 and breaks 392.72 → Enter 2026-07-02 $393/$394 call spread @0.36-0.44
Adjustment Triggers
ADJGLD fails at 392.72 → Take partial profits on bullish positions
Exit Triggers
EXITGLD < 381.52 → Exit all long positions

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias above $381.52 support; dealer delta positive, gamma negative warns of reversals. Preferred play: bull call spread. Resistance $392.72. Invalidation at $381.52.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 18, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.