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GLD

SPDR Gold SharesClose $365.92EOD only
Max Pain
$390.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$7.36
2.0% from close
Price Gap
+24.08
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
28
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.59
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 24, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects GLD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 24, 2026 close
GLD Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 25, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish bias driven by strong negative GEX (-$203.4M), bearish flow, and spot below max pain ($380). Proximity to gamma flip ($360) suggests continued downside pressure, supported by trending gamma and normal vol. High confidence (7.5/10) from aligned GEX/flow.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
Base 5 from trend; +2 from strong GEX/flow alignment; +0.5 from VIX 19 supporting moderate vol.
Supports: Negative GEX, bearish flow, spot below max pain, trending gamma, gamma flip at $360.
Conflicts: Spot above hard support $350, wide 2-week range allows bounce, VIX not extreme.
📉Heavy negative GEX -$203M amplifies downside moves.
🎯Spot below max pain $380; pinning lower likely.
⚠️Gamma flip at $360 (2.6% below) critical hazard.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Normal vol regime; VIX 18.9 moderate, not elevated or suppressed.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Trending gamma (negative $203.4M GEX); flip near $360 from put OI concentration.
Flow Regime
Bearish
Bearish flow; net put premium indicates hedging/directional selling.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot below max pain $380, suggesting downward pinning.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Upcoming weekly expiration 2026-06-26 focuses gamma/flow; max pain dynamics dominate near term.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$364.53$374.39
Gamma flip and put OI pressure toward $360 support.
Next 1 week
$360.83$378.08
Continued dealer hedging; low end $360 test likely.
Next 2 weeks
$353.61$385.31
Structural positioning may push to $353.61 support.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $380 (2026-06-26); $376 (2026-06-29); $370 (2026-06-30)
EM guardrails: 2d $364.53/$374.39; 1w $360.83/$378.08
Support: $360.00 · $353.61 · $350.00
Resistance: $380.00 · $385.31
Gamma flip: ~$360.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 104,885 (2.6% below spot)
Structural: Support: $360 (gamma flip), $353.61 (2w low), $350 (hard). Resistance: $380 (max pain), $385.31 (2w high). EM guardrails: 2d $364.53/$374.39, 1w $360.83/$378.08.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-203.4M

DEX: +87.0M shares

Gamma flip: ~$360 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 104,885 (2.6% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealers net short gamma -$203.4M; flip near $360 from put OI concentration. Negative GEX accelerates moves toward that level.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: GLD IV normal vs VIX 18.9; neither rich nor cheap.

Term structure: Upward sloping; slight kink at 6/26 expiry due to event risk.

Skew: Put skew elevated; structure favors long puts but high IV may limit upside.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$741M bearish, put/call vol 1.41, put buying dominates.

Directional prints: 23.9 put 375 ITM 2026-07-24 — vol/OI 15.1, ITM put purchase, adds to bearish flow. 48.9 put 425 ITM 2026-06-30 — vol/OI 7.2, high IV 48.9% deep ITM put, likely hedging or bearish bet. 61.1 put 495 ITM 2026-07-17 — vol/OI 7.0, very high IV 61.1%, large premium put, reinforces bearish sentiment.

Unusual: 27.1 call 400 OTM 2026-12-18 — vol/OI 18.6, massive OTM call buying Dec18, contrarian bullish. 28 call 465 OTM 2026-12-18 — vol/OI 17.5, large OTM call accumulation, speculative upside. 24.6 call 378 OTM 2026-06-26 — vol/OI 15.5, near-dated OTM call sweep, unusual volume.

Risks & Catalysts

!Unexpected rally above $380 triggers short covering.
!Positive gold catalyst flips flow bullish.
!Gamma shift if spot approaches $360 and dealers hedge dynamically.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-07-17 $360.00/$355.00 put spread
Why now: Spot below max pain ($380) and gamma flip ($360) suggests continued downside; bear put spread profits from drop with limited cost.
Unexpected rally above $380 could cause loss of full debit paid.
Long putModerate
Buy 2026-07-17 $360.00 put
Why now: Highest confidence bearish signal from GEX and flow; long put offers convexity at defined cost.
Time decay if rally persists; requires bearish move before expiration.

Top Plays

#1
Long Put $360
Buy 2026-07-17 $360.00 put
Expresses bearish conviction with unlimited upside profit potential if spot declines below $360.
Why this play: Highest confidence bearish signal from GEX and flow; long put offers convexity at defined cost, maximizing potential gain.
Debit: $5.00-$6.11
Max loss: $6.11
BE: $353.89
Mgmt: Monitor theta; exit if spot rallies above $380 invalidation level.
Aggressive directional traders with high conviction and tolerance for theta decay.
#2
Bear Put Spread 360/355
Buy 2026-07-17 $360.00/$355.00 put spread
Expresses bearish view with capped profit and defined risk, reducing premium cost.
Why this play: Offers defined risk and lower capital outlay, suitable for risk-averse bearish traders; still profits from downside.
Debit: $1.15-$1.40
Max loss: $1.40
BE: $358.60
Mgmt: Low maintenance; exit if spot rises above $380.
Conservative traders seeking defined risk and lower cost.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFspot breaks below $360 gamma flip → BUY 2026-07-17 $360.00 put (long put) within entry range $5.00-$6.11
IFspot sustains below $380 resistance and approaches $360 → BUY 2026-07-17 $360.00/$355.00 bear put spread within entry range $1.15-$1.40
Exit Triggers
EXITspot rallies above $380 invalidation level → CLOSE all bearish positions (long put and bear put spread)

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias from negative GEX and bearish flow. Support at $360 (gamma flip), resistance at $380 (max pain). Top plays: (1) Long put $360 for high conviction, (2) Bear put spread 360/355 for defined risk. Exit if spot > $380.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 25, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.