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GLD

SPDR Gold SharesClose $387.12EOD only

Max Pain

$388.00

Next expiry Jun 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$6.29

1.6% from close

Price Gap

+0.88

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

100

High premium

P/C OI

0.56

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

5.0/10

Consensus signal

Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects GLD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 18, 2026 close

GLD Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 22, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish bias targeting $376-$360 support zone. Negative dealer gamma amplifies downside moves; spot below max pain $390 and mixed flow aligns with GEX. VIX 17 supports orderly decline.

Confidence:

8.5 / 10

Base 5 + GEX/flow aligned (+2), spot 1.4% below MP (+0.5), VIX 17 (+1) = 8.5. No override needed.

Supports: Negative dealer gamma, spot below max pain, resistance at $390 caps upside.
Conflicts: Net long delta (DEX +81.2M shares) could cushion falls; mixed flow not fully bearish.

📉Spot ~$385, 1.3% below Max Pain $390; pin action downward.

⚡Gamma flip at $360 threatens accelerated selling if breached.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Normal: IV consistent with VIX 17, no event-related expansion.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Trending: GEX -$107.1M indicates short gamma, amplifying directional moves.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed: Net premium unclear but GEX alignment suggests bearish lean.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Below: Spot ~$385 vs max pain $390, creating downward gravitational pull.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Key levels extend 2 weeks; negative gamma structure persists until flips; VIX normal allows gradual progression.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$379.63$389.55

Resistance at $390 caps; target $379.63 support.

Next 1 week

$376.09$393.09

Support at $376.09; breach gives run to $370.

Next 2 weeks

$369.64$399.54

Gamma flip near $360; watch for acceleration below $369.64.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $390 (2026-06-22); $390 (2026-06-24); $398 (2026-06-26)

EM guardrails: 2d $379.63/$389.55; 1w $376.09/$393.09

Support: $369.64 · $360.00 · $350.00

Resistance: $390.00 · $399.54

Gamma flip: ~$360.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 102,029 (6.4% below spot)

Structural: Support: 369.64, 360.00 (gamma flip), 350.00. Resistance: 390.00 (max pain), 399.54.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-107.1M

DEX: +81.2M shares

Gamma flip: ~$360 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 102,029 (6.4% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX -$107.1M (short gamma), DEX +81.2M shares (long delta), gamma flip ~$360 (put OI concentration).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV in line with VIX 17, no relative cheapness or richness; normal volatility environment.

Term structure: Normal contango, no major event kinks; near-term expiry within max pain window.

Skew: Put skew elevated from hedging; no actionable vol arbitrage; focus on directional gamma.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$231M with near-equal volume ratio but higher put premium, indicating net put buying.

Directional prints: 30.2 put 364 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 38, aggressive buy; likely opened bearish; preferred bearish. 28.7 put 366 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 35, aggressive buy; likely opened bearish; preferred bearish.

Unusual: 24.4 put 340 OTM 2026-10-16 — Vol/OI 8.8, large long-term put; bearish stance. 23.2 call 400 OTM 2026-06-24 — Vol/OI 8.2, OTM call speculation; possibly bullish but small premium. 23.7 put 510 ITM 2027-01-15 — Vol/OI 4.6, deep ITM put; large premium; possibly closing trade.

Risks & Catalysts

!Break above $390 invalidates bearish thesis, targets resistance $399.

!Gamma squeeze if spot rallies sharply; short gamma forces dealer buying.

!Macro catalyst (e.g., rate cut, geopolitical) could flip gold sentiment.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bear put spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-07-17 $380.00/$375.00 put spread Why now: Negative dealer gamma and put flow favor downside.	Break above $390 invalidates.
Long put	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-07-31 $376.00 put Why now: Aggressive put buying flow supports downside convexity.	Time decay; bounce from support possible. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread 380/375

Buy 2026-07-17 $380.00/$375.00 put spread

Captures downside to $375 with defined risk.

Why this play: Liquidity-pass, limited risk, aligns with negative gamma and put flow.

Debit: $1.44-$1.76

Max loss: $1.76

BE: $378.24

Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks above $390.

Controlled bearish exposure.

Long Put $376

Buy 2026-07-31 $376.00 put

Pure downside play with significant profit potential.

Why this play: Higher convexity, but liquidity risk makes it secondary.

Debit: $6.48-$7.92

Max loss: $7.92

BE: $368.08

Mgmt: Monitor liquidity; exit on invalidation. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.

Aggressive traders comfortable with liquidity risk.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot reaches $390 and then drops below $388 → Buy bear put spread: 2026-07-17 $380/$375 put spread within $1.44-$1.76

IFIf spot breaks below $369.64 support → Buy long put: 2026-07-31 $376 put within $6.48-$7.92 (aggressive, illiquid)

Exit Triggers

EXITIf spot closes above $390 → Close all bearish positions

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias targeting $376-$360 support. Negative dealer gamma and put flow favor downside. Resistance at $390 (max pain) invalidates thesis. Top play: bear put spread 380/375 (liquid). Alternate: long put $376 (illiquid, higher risk). Exit if spot breaks $390.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 22, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.