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GLD

SPDR Gold SharesClose $397.63EOD only
Max Pain
$395.00
Next expiry Jun 17, 2026
Expected Move
±$4.59
1.2% from close
Price Gap
-2.63
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
95
High premium
P/C OI
0.57
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 16, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects GLD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 16, 2026 close
GLD Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 17, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish as spot below $395 MP, dealer short gamma (-$81M) amplifies. Key support $375. Confidence 8.

Confidence:
8 / 10
Base 5, +2 GEX/flow alignment, +0.5 spot proximity, +0.5 VIX
Supports: Dealer short gamma, spot below MP, trending gamma
Conflicts: Mixed flow, strong support $375
📉Short gamma $81M amplifies.
🎯Spot 1.6% below MP resists.
⚠️Put OI support $375.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Normal vol, IV typical range.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Trending GEX -$81M, flip ~$360.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed but aligned with gamma.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot 1.6% below $395 MP.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Consecutive pins through June 22.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$382.44$394.76
Resist $394.76
Next 1 week
$379.75$397.45
Test $379 support
Next 2 weeks
$375.33$401.88
Test $375 flip

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $395 (2026-06-17); $390 (2026-06-18); $386 (2026-06-22)
EM guardrails: 2d $382.44/$394.76; 1w $379.75/$397.45
Support: $375.33 · $360.00 · $350.00
Resistance: $395.00 · $401.88 · $425.00
Gamma flip: ~$360.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 100,972 (7.4% below spot)
Structural: Supp: 375,360,350; Res: 395,402,425

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-81.0M

DEX: +108.1M shares

Gamma flip: ~$360 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 100,972 (7.4% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX -$81M, DEX +108M, flip $360

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: SPX IV rich vs VIX 18.44.

Term structure: Contango, kink June 17.

Skew: Put skew; bear put spreads.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net put premium of -814M with P/C volume ratio 1.19, bearish skew.

Directional prints: 10.1 put 386 OTM 2026-06-17 — Vol/OI 27.7x; new put buying; bearish downside bet. 26.1 put 375 OTM 2026-06-24 — Vol/OI 18.9x; likely bought; bearish. 26.5 call 401 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 15.7x; new call buying; bullish but OTM.

Unusual: 10.1 put 386 OTM 2026-06-17 — Vol/OI 27.7x; highest ratio; bearish flow. 26.1 put 375 OTM 2026-06-24 — Vol/OI 18.9x; second highest; bearish. 26.5 call 401 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 15.7x; bullish outlier among puts.

Risks & Catalysts

!Rally >395
!Safe-haven bid
!Vol spike risk

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate
Buy 2026-07-17 $395.00/$380.00 put spread
Why now: Dealer short gamma $81M amplifies downside; key support $375. Spread limits risk.
Rally >395 vol spikes.
Long putModerate
Buy 2026-07-17 $390.00 put
Why now: Bearish flow, net put premium, support at 375. Time decay offset by gamma.
Rally >395 and theta decay.
Call credit spreadWeak
Sell 2026-07-02 $395.00/$397.50 call spread
Why now: Resistance at 395 and dealer gamma. Short call spread profits if stay below 397.5.
Break above 397.5 with momentum. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.

Top Plays

#1
Bear Put Spread
Buy 2026-07-17 $395.00/$380.00 put spread
Buy 395/380 put spread for defined risk bearish play.
Why this play: Best risk/reward; dealer gamma amplifies downside, spread limits loss.
Debit: $5.42-$6.63
Max loss: $6.63
BE: $388.37
Mgmt: Exit near 375 or if price exceeds 395.
Aggressive bearish traders.
#2
Long Put
Buy 2026-07-17 $390.00 put
Buy 390 put for direct downside exposure.
Why this play: High payoff if downside materializes; aligns with bearish flow.
Debit: $8.44-$10.31
Max loss: $10.31
BE: $379.69
Mgmt: Take profits on sharp down moves; watch theta decay.
High-conviction bearish traders.
#3
Call Credit Spread
Sell 2026-07-02 $395.00/$397.50 call spread
Sell 395/397.5 call spread to profit from resistance.
Why this play: Lower cost bearish play; liquidity is a concern.
Credit: $0.88-$1.07
Max loss: $1.43
BE: $396.07
Mgmt: Close early if price near 397.5. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.
Moderate bearish view with defined risk.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF GLD price tests resistance at 395 and shows rejection (e.g., closes below), THEN initiate bear put spread (buy 2026-07-17 $395/$380 put spread) for defined risk bearish play. → Initiate bear put spread (strat_1)
IFIF GLD price breaks below support at 375 with volume, THEN initiate long put (buy 2026-07-17 $390 put) for direct downside exposure. → Initiate long put (strat_2)
Exit Triggers
EXITIF GLD price rallies above 395, THEN exit all bearish positions as thesis is invalidated. → Exit all bearish positions

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias on GLD as spot below $395 MP with dealer short gamma (-$81M). Key support at $375; resistance at $395 and $402. Top play: Bear put spread (395/380) best risk/reward. Entry triggers: rejection at 395 or breakdown below 375. Exit if price >395. Manage via defined risk.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 17, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.