thetaOwl
HomeOptionsGLDReports

GLD

SPDR Gold SharesClose $369.46EOD only
Max Pain
$380.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$4.93
1.3% from close
Price Gap
+10.54
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
24
Low premium
P/C OI
0.59
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Jun 25, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects GLD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 25, 2026 close
GLD Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 26, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias with moderate confidence; GLD near max pain $375 and gamma flip $360 support. VIX 18 supports orderly movement. GEX negative aligns with trend but DEX +81.9M longs provide structural bid. Spot at MP attracts pin action.

Confidence:
8.5 / 10
Base 5 from strong GEX/flow alignment (+2), spot at MP (+1), VIX 18 (+0.5) gives 8.5
Supports: GEX/flow aligned, spot at MP, VIX normal, DEX long delta
Conflicts: Negative GEX of -80.7M may accelerate moves; trending gamma regime
📊GLD at MP $375 with heavy put OI at $360 support; pin action likely
📈DEX +81.9M shares long delta provides structural bid
⚠️Trending gamma means momentum can build; watch $368 support

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
IV near normal given VIX 18; GLD volatility typical for range-bound conditions
Gamma Regime
Trending
Trending gamma regime; GEX -80.7M negative, gamma flip at $360 from put concentration (105k OI)
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed flow; net premium context uncertain. GEX negative but DEX positive suggests balanced positioning
Spot vs Max Pain
At
Spot at MP ($375) exactly; within 0.4%. Max pain pins at $375 for Jun26 and Jun29 expiry.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Spot at max pain on expiry day; gamma trending but pin support at $375; event-driven thesis for 2-day window

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$368.78$378.49
MP pin at $375; range $368-$378; bias higher intraday
Next 1 week
$365.13$382.14
Broader range $365-$382; momentum outside may break or hold
Next 2 weeks
$359.63$387.63
Lower bound $359.63; gamma flip at $360; break below potential

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $375 (2026-06-26); $375 (2026-06-29); $369 (2026-06-30)
EM guardrails: 2d $368.78/$378.49; 1w $365.13/$382.14
Support: $360.00 · $359.63 · $350.00
Resistance: $375.00 · $387.63
Gamma flip: ~$360.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 105,425 (3.6% below spot)
Structural: Max pain $375 (Jun26/29), support $360 (gamma flip), $368 (2d low), resistance $375 (MP), $387.63 (2w high)

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-80.7M

DEX: +81.9M shares

Gamma flip: ~$360 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 105,425 (3.6% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX -$80.7M (negative gamma), DEX +81.9M shares (long delta). Gamma flip ~$360 from 105k put OI. Dealers hedged short gamma, may amplify moves.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: GLD IV near normal vs VIX 18; not rich or cheap

Term structure: Flat term structure; no event kinks near expiry

Skew: Put skew slightly elevated due to put concentration; no actionable vol trade

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net put $328.5M, P/C vol ratio 0.83, OI ratio 0.58, bearish bias with long OTM calls.

Directional prints: 5.7 put 373 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 47.3, OTM put, low IV; likely bought bearish. 26 call 425 OTM 2026-11-20 — Vol/OI 12.3, far OTM call, high IV; likely bought speculative.

Unusual: 12.1 put 374 ITM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 13.9, OTM put, moderate IV; unusual put buying. 6.1 call 376 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 9.9, OTM call, low IV; unusual call volume.

Risks & Catalysts

!Break below $360 gamma flip could accelerate selling
!Spot rejection at $375 resistance
!VIX spike above 20 would pressure
!Negative GEX amplifies downside moves

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadModerate
Buy 2026-07-10 $375.00/$380.00 call spread
Why now: Defined-risk upside, cheap premium near ATM
Spot rejection at 375 resistance
Put credit spreadModerate-Strong
Sell 2026-07-10 $365.00/$364.00 put spread
Why now: Collect premium with defined risk below 365
Break below 360 gamma flip
Long callModerate
Buy 2026-07-10 $375.00 call
Why now: Upside capture, low vol environment
Time decay if no move

Top Plays

#1
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-07-10 $375.00/$380.00 call spread
Captures upside from 375 to 380 with limited loss, leveraging low vol.
Why this play: Best aligns with bullish bias and defined risk near ATM; cheap premium against max pain.
Debit: $2.02-$2.48
Max loss: $2.48
BE: $377.48
Mgmt: Exit at 70% max gain or if spot falls below 360.
Moderate bullish traders seeking capped risk.
#2
Long Call
Buy 2026-07-10 $375.00 call
Unlimited upside potential with defined cost; benefits from low vol expansion.
Why this play: More aggressive upside capture; suitable if conviction stronger.
Debit: $5.78-$7.07
Max loss: $7.07
BE: $382.07
Mgmt: Size small; stop-loss at 360 or time decay hedge.
Aggressive bullish traders comfortable with higher risk.
#3
Put Credit Spread
Sell 2026-07-10 $365.00/$364.00 put spread
Collects credit on downside protection, but bias conflicts.
Why this play: Generates premium but bearish; less aligned with bullish thesis.
Credit: $0.23-$0.28
Max loss: $0.72
BE: $364.72
Mgmt: Close early on any bullish move; invalidation at 360.
Neutral to slightly bearish traders; not primary play.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFGLD holds above $360 support and approaches $375 resistance → Buy 2026-07-10 $375.00/$380.00 call spread at $2.02-$2.48
Adjustment Triggers
ADJGLD reaches $387.63 resistance or 70% max gain on bull call spread → Take partial profits on bull call spread
Exit Triggers
EXITGLD breaks below $360 gamma flip → Close all bullish positions (bull call spread, long call)

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias with defined risk using bull call spread targeting $380. Key support $360 (gamma flip) and resistance $375 (max pain). Invalidation below $360. Long call for aggressive traders if $375 breaks. Put credit spread not primary.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 26, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.