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GLD

SPDR Gold SharesClose $386.54EOD only
Max Pain
$390.00
Next expiry Jun 15, 2026
Expected Move
±$6.12
1.6% from close
Price Gap
+3.46
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
63
High premium
P/C OI
0.58
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects GLD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 12, 2026 close
GLD Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 12, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias from dealer short gamma (trending) and spot at max pain $390 (support), but mixed flow and negative gamma at resistance cap conviction.

Confidence:
9 / 10
Base 5, +2 from trending gamma (short dealer amplifies moves), +1 spot near max pain (pinning support), +1 VIX moderate. Total 9.
Supports: Trending gamma regime, spot at max pain $390, VIX moderate (17.68).
Conflicts: Mixed flow (no catalyst), negative dealer gamma $−95.4M GEX may reverse at resistance $390–401.
🔴Negative dealer gamma $−95.4M amplifies reversals; gamma flip $360 below.
🟢Spot at max pain $390: pinning support across expiries.
🟡Mixed flow: net premium neutral, no directional conviction.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Vol Normal – IV within typical range; VIX 17.68 supports average vol.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Gamma Trending – dealers net short $−95.4M GEX, amplifying moves; gamma flip at $360 from put OI.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Flow Mixed – balanced put/call activity, lacks directional catalyst.
Spot vs Max Pain
At
Spot near max pain $390; pinning likely but negative gamma may break pin.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Trending gamma from dealer short gamma is multi-week; spot at MP for near-term expiries but negative gamma increases breakout probability.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$380.42$392.66
Spot at MP $390, pinning expected; range bound.
Next 1 week
$382.77$390.32
Trending gamma may push above $390, but resistance at $390–401.
Next 2 weeks
$371.72$401.37
Structural dealer short gamma supports upside; support at $371.72.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $390 (2026-06-12); $390 (2026-06-15); $395 (2026-06-17)
EM guardrails: 2d $380.42/$392.66; 1w $382.77/$390.32
Support: $371.72 · $360.00 · $350.00
Resistance: $390.00 · $401.37 · $425.00
Gamma flip: ~$360.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 101,674 (6.9% below spot)
Structural: Support: $371.72 (2w low), $360 (gamma flip), $350. Resistance: $390 (max pain/support also resistance from negative gamma), $401.37 (2w high), $425. EM guardrails: 2d $380-393, 1w $383-390.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-95.4M

DEX: +96.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$360 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 101,674 (6.9% below spot))

NTM gamma: Net dealer short gamma: GEX $−95.4M, DEX +96.7M shares (long delta). Gamma flip near $360 from put OI (101,674 contracts). Negative gamma amplifies spot moves.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: GLD IV near average vs VIX ~18; no rich/cheap signal.

Term structure: Flat to gently contango; no major event kinks; near-term expiries pinned at $390.

Skew: Skew neutral; no vol structure opportunity due to normal vol and pinning.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net put buying $430M; P/C vol ratio 0.87, OI ratio 0.58; bearish bias despite high call volume.

Directional prints: 11.8 put 387 ITM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI 4.0; new put buying, bearish. 28.6 put 355 OTM 2026-06-30 — Elevated IV OTM put; defensive.

Unusual: 24.5 call 400 OTM 2026-06-17 — Vol/OI 10.8, large OTM call sweep; doubtful if buys. 23.1 put 510 ITM 2027-01-15 — Deep ITM put block (~$75M); likely hedge. 8 call 390 OTM 2026-06-12 — 0DTE 10K call volume; speculative.

Risks & Catalysts

!Negative dealer gamma may cause sharp reversal from $390 resistance.
!Mixed flow provides no directional catalyst.
!Gamma flip at $360 risk if spot drops.
!Pinning at $390 may limit upside near term.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadModerate
Buy 2026-07-17 $390.00/$405.00 call spread
Why now: Dealer short gamma trending, multi-week bullish; defined risk avoids negative gamma resistance.
Upside capped; flow bearish could stall rally.
Put credit spreadModerate
Sell 2026-07-17 $375.00/$360.00 put spread
Why now: Max pain support, mixed flow; credit spread benefits from time decay and defined risk.
Sharp reversal below short strike; negative gamma at $360 if drop.

Top Plays

#1
Bull call spread
Buy 2026-07-17 $390.00/$405.00 call spread
Long 390/405 call spread for multi-week upside.
Why this play: Aligns with bullish bias from dealer short gamma and max pain support; defined risk bypasses negative gamma resistance.
Debit: $4.88-$5.97
Max loss: $5.97
BE: $395.97
Mgmt: Exit if spot drops below 371.72 or near expiration within spread cost.
Traders expecting gradual rise with limited downside.
#2
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $375.00/$360.00 put spread
Sell 375/360 put spread for premium income.
Why this play: Benefits from max pain support and time decay; defined risk suits mixed flow environment.
Credit: $2.79-$3.40
Max loss: $11.60
BE: $371.60
Mgmt: Roll if spot approaches 375; monitor gamma flip at 360.
Income-focused traders comfortable with mild bullish view.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF spot holds above $371.72 (2w low) and dealer short gamma persists → THEN buy 2026-07-17 $390/$405 call spread within entry range $4.88-$5.97
IFIF spot remains above $375 and max pain support holds → THEN sell 2026-07-17 $375/$360 put spread within credit range $2.79-$3.40
Exit Triggers
EXITIF spot closes below $371.72 → THEN exit both spreads (invalidation level)

Tactical Summary

Multi-week bullish bias from dealer short gamma, but capped by negative gamma at $390 resistance. Favor defined-risk spreads: bull call spread for upside, put credit spread for income. Invalidate on break of $371.72 support.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 12, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.