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GLD

SPDR Gold SharesClose $396.55EOD only
Max Pain
$388.00
Next expiry Jun 17, 2026
Expected Move
±$6.54
1.6% from close
Price Gap
-8.55
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
87
High premium
P/C OI
0.57
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
4.0/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: Jun 15, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects GLD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 15, 2026 close
GLD Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 16, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Neutral to slightly bullish near term due to dealer gamma pinning at $395 and positive GEX. Near-term support from max pain and EM guardrails $393-402. Over 1 week, potential to test $406 resistance. Over 2 weeks, risk of downside to $385 if support fails. Negative equity context offsets some bullishness.

Confidence:
7 / 10
Base 5; adjusted -1 for GEX/flow contradict; +1 for GEX positive pinning; +1 spot 0.7% from MP; +1 VIX 16. Net 7.
Supports: GEX +$28M positive, spot near max pain $395, VIX moderate 16, normal vol regime.
Conflicts: Mixed flow (net premium unclear), negative QQQ/SPY, gamma flip at $360 poses downside risk.
🧲Max pain pin at $395 (Jun17) and $390 (Jun18) attract spot.
📈GEX +$28M positive, dealers long gamma support near-term hold.
⚠️Gamma flip ~$360 from put OI concentration (9.5% below spot).

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Normal vol regime; VIX 16.4, low volatility environment supporting range-bound behavior.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Pinning regime; GEX +$28M positive with strong dealer gamma around $395, reducing spot movement.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed flow; net premium unclear, open interest shows balanced positioning with slight put bias at strikes.
Spot vs Max Pain
At
Spot near $395 max pain (0.7% difference), tight grip on price action.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Max pain pins for Jun17 and Jun18 expirations drive near-term price anchoring; gamma pinning supports short-duration view.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$393.04$402.23
Pinning to $395, range $393-402 per EM guardrails.
Next 1 week
$389.23$406.03
Potential test of $406 resistance if $402 breaks.
Next 2 weeks
$385.18$410.08
Risk of decline to $385 support if $395 fails.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $395 (2026-06-17); $390 (2026-06-18); $380 (2026-06-22)
EM guardrails: 2d $393.04/$402.23; 1w $389.23/$406.03
Support: $395.00 · $385.18 · $360.00
Resistance: $410.08 · $425.00
Gamma flip: ~$360.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 101,086 (9.5% below spot)
Structural: Support $395 (max pain), $385 (1w low), $360 (gamma flip). Resistance $402 (2d high), $406 (1w high), $410 (2w high).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+28.0M

DEX: +96.8M shares

Gamma flip: ~$360 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 101,086 (9.5% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$28M (long gamma), DEX +96.8M shares (long delta). Dealers are positioned to pin spot near $395. Gamma flip at $360 from put OI concentration acts as downside crash risk.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: GLD IV is normal relative to VIX; no significant premium or discount, consistent with range-bound expectations.

Term structure: Term structure likely flat to slightly contango; event kinks at Jun17 and Jun18 expiries where max pain pins exist.

Skew: Skew is neutral to slightly put-heavy; no obvious volatility structure opportunity given normal IV and pinning.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium negative -348M; P/C volume 0.82, OI 0.57, put flow dominant.

Directional prints: 22.6 call 397 ITM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 11.7: heavy call volume, likely bought, bullish. 20.2 put 390 OTM 2026-06-22 — Vol/OI 7.0: notable put buying, bearish hedge.

Unusual: 22.4 call 398 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 18.6: extreme call activity, likely aggressive buying. 27.9 call 440 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol/OI 6.6: far OTM call with high IV, speculative bullish. 22.6 put 510 ITM 2027-01-15 — Vol/OI 4.6: deep ITM put, likely bought as hedge.

Risks & Catalysts

!Break below $395 support opens downside to $385 and further to gamma flip at $360.
!Positive GEX and max pain could fail if equity selloff intensifies, dragging GLD lower.
!Upside surprise above $406 could trigger short covering, but resistance at $410 and $425 caps.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Put credit spreadModerate
Sell 2026-07-02 $395.00/$394.00 put spread
Why now: Neutral-bullish bias, support at 393, max pain 395.
Break below 389 exposes 385.
Iron condorModerate-Weak
Sell 2026-07-02 $395.00/$394.00 put wing and $410.00/$411.00 call wing
Why now: Range-bound, GEX pinning near 395.
Break beyond 389-406 causes max loss. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Volume below 5.
Bull call spreadModerate
Buy 2026-07-10 $410.00/$411.00 call spread
Why now: Slight bullish lean, test 406 resistance.
Failure to break 402.

Top Plays

#1
Put Credit Spread
Sell 2026-07-02 $395.00/$394.00 put spread
Sell put spread to collect premium, bullish drift.
Why this play: Neutral-bullish bias, support at 395, high liquidity.
Credit: $0.36-$0.44
Max loss: $0.56
BE: $394.56
Mgmt: Exit if price breaks below 395.
Traders expecting limited downside.
#2
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-07-10 $410.00/$411.00 call spread
Buy call spread targeting resistance.
Why this play: Upside potential to 406 resistance, moderate risk.
Debit: $0.27-$0.33
Max loss: $0.33
BE: $410.33
Mgmt: Invalidation at 395.
Slightly bullish traders.
#3
Iron Condor
Sell 2026-07-02 $395.00/$394.00 put wing and $410.00/$411.00 call wing
Sell wings for low volatility, but liquidity issue.
Why this play: Range-bound but illiquid, lower priority.
Credit: $0.49-$0.60
Max loss: $0.40
BE: 394.40 / 410.60
Mgmt: Monitor liquidity; exit if breaks range. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Volume below 5.
Neutral traders only if liquid.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF GLD holds above $395 support with neutral to slightly bullish bias → THEN sell 2026-07-02 $395/$394 put spread at 0.36-0.44 credit
IFIF GLD rallies above $402 with volume and holds above $395 → THEN buy 2026-07-10 $410/$411 call spread at 0.27-0.33 debit
Exit Triggers
EXITIF GLD breaks below $395 → THEN exit put spread immediately
EXITIF GLD drops below $395 → THEN exit bull call spread for loss

Tactical Summary

Neutral to slightly bullish near term, key support $395 (max pain). Favor put credit spread for premium; if momentum above $402, add bull call spread targeting $406. Invalidation at $395 break. Avoid illiquid iron condor.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 16, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.