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GLD

SPDR Gold SharesClose $386.54EOD only

Max Pain

$390.00

Next expiry Jun 15, 2026

Expected Move

±$6.12

1.6% from close

Price Gap

+3.46

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

High premium

P/C OI

0.58

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects GLD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 12, 2026 close

GLD Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 11, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

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You are viewing an older report from June 11, 2026. A newer directional report is available for June 12, 2026.

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Outlook

GLD trending below max pain with negative dealer gamma and mixed flow. VIX decline supports bullish bias, but resistance at $396 and gamma flip at $360 are key risks. Pre-computed confidence 7.5.

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

Base 5 +2 (GEX/flow aligned: negative GEX but spot above gamma flip $360 and below MP $396 favors drift) +0.5 (VIX 19 low fear, supports upside).

Supports: VIX 19, trending gamma, spot above gamma flip $360, below MP $396 suggesting upward drift.
Conflicts: Resistance $396 (max pain), mixed flow, negative GEX amplifying downside risk.

📈Trending gamma supports directional momentum.

⚠️Gamma flip at $360 is critical downside level.

⚖️Flow mixed; no clear premium bias.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Normal vol with VIX 19, indicating moderate uncertainty.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Trending gamma suggests momentum-driven price action.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed flow; no dominant put or call premium.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot below MP ($396) but above gamma flip ($360), implying potential drift toward MP.

Thesis duration: Structural — Gold ETF driven by macro trends; trending gamma and below-MP positioning favor gradual upside.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$379.77$392.88

Drift toward MP $396; support at $379.77 holds.

Next 1 week

$381.60$391.05

Range $381.60-$391.05; resistance at $391.05 may cap.

Next 2 weeks

$369.92$402.72

Wider range $369.92-$402.72; gamma flip at $360 is downside limit.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $396 (2026-06-12); $395 (2026-06-15); $395 (2026-06-17)

EM guardrails: 2d $379.77/$392.88; 1w $381.60/$391.05

Support: $369.92 · $360.00 · $350.00

Resistance: $396.00 · $402.72

Gamma flip: ~$360.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 101,742 (6.8% below spot)

Structural: Support: $369.92 (2w low), $360 (gamma flip), $379.77 (2d low), $350 (structural). Resistance: $396 (max pain), $402.72 (2w high).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-123.1M

DEX: +99.6M shares

Gamma flip: ~$360 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 101,742 (6.8% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX -$123.1M (negative), gamma flip ~$360. Dealer short gamma amplifies directional moves.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV not available for GLD; typical IV ~19% correlates with VIX. No term structure or skew data.

Term structure: Not available.

Skew: Not available.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net -$725M; P/C vol 1.08 put, OI call 0.60; mixed.

Directional prints: 37.8 put 350 OTM 2026-06-17 — Vol/OI 14.2, bought put, bearish hedge 27.1 call 392 OTM 2026-06-15 — Vol/OI 13.7, bought call, bullish

Unusual: 28.7 call 375 ITM 2026-07-17 — Vol/OI 11.4, ITM call bought, bullish 80.1 put 480 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 4.9, deep ITM put, bearish

Risks & Catalysts

!Break below gamma flip at $360 could accelerate selling.

!Failure to clear $396 resistance may reverse momentum.

!Macro shifts (dollar, rates) impact gold sentiment.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-10 $400.00/$413.00 call spread Why now: Bullish momentum with VIX decline; spread limits cost and defines risk.	Upside capped at $396; break below $380 could lead to loss. Liquidity constraints: short_call: Open interest below 25.
Long call	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-17 $395.00 call Why now: Lower vol environment favors long options for convexity; cheap premium relative to move.	Theta decay if move delayed; resistance at $396 may cap short-term.
Put credit spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-07-10 $365.00/$350.00 put spread Why now: Dealer gamma negative near $380; selling puts defined risk benefits from theta decay.	Break below $360 could accelerate losses; max loss is width minus credit.

Top Plays

Long Call

Buy 2026-07-17 $395.00 call

Buy 2026-07-17 $395 call for ~$8.60; benefits from continued rally past $396 resistance.

Why this play: Best fits bullish momentum with unlimited upside; low vol environment boosts convexity; liquidity pass ensures easy execution.

Debit: $7.74-$9.46

Max loss: $9.46

BE: $404.46

Mgmt: Exit half at $405; trail stop if GLD breaks $410.

Aggressive traders seeking leveraged upside with defined max loss.

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-10 $365.00/$350.00 put spread

Sell 2026-07-10 $365/$350 put spread for ~$1.82 credit; max gain if GLD stays above $365.

Why this play: Defined risk bullish play that profits from theta decay and stable trading; liquidity pass.

Credit: $1.64-$2.00

Max loss: $13.00

BE: $363.00

Mgmt: Close at 50% profit; roll out if tested near $365.

Income-focused traders with moderate bullish conviction.

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-07-10 $400.00/$413.00 call spread

Buy 2026-07-10 $400/$413 call spread for ~$2.95; needs strong rally above $400.

Why this play: Defined risk bullish but lacks liquidity; cheaper but lower probability.

Debit: $2.66-$3.25

Max loss: $3.25

BE: $403.25

Mgmt: Let run to expiration if above $410; exit early on volume drop. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Open interest below 25.

Traders seeking capped risk with lower cost basis.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF GLD breaks above $396 with volume → THEN buy 2026-07-17 $395 call for ~$8.60

IFIF GLD holds above $369.92 support → THEN sell 2026-07-10 $365/$350 put spread for ~$1.82 credit

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIF GLD approaches $365 → THEN roll put credit spread forward

Exit Triggers

EXITIF GLD breaches $360 gamma flip → THEN exit long call and close put credit spread

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias; buy long call on break of $396 resistance or sell put spread above $369.92. Manage risk below $360.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 11, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.