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GLD

SPDR Gold SharesClose $390.78EOD only
Max Pain
$400.00
Next expiry Jun 10, 2026
Expected Move
±$5.22
1.3% from close
Price Gap
+9.22
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
52
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.60
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 9, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects GLD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 9, 2026 close
GLD Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 10, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

GLD is bearish near-term given spot below max pain ($397-$401) and negative dealer gamma (-$189M), but the gamma flip at $360 provides a strong support floor. The trending regime and mixed flow suggest short-term downside bias with a potential bounce at flip. Thesis holds for multi-week as long as $360 holds.

Confidence:
6 / 10
Base 5, +2 for aligned GEX/flow, -1 for 5.6% distance from MP, net 6. GEX strongly supports downside, but distance from MP limits conviction.
Supports: Negative GEX, spot below MP, trending gamma regime, EM guardrails low at $365.48.
Conflicts: Long delta (+108M shares), mixed flow, normal vol limiting edge.
🛡️Gamma flip at $360: key support with 101,752 put OI concentration.
📉Spot ~3.9% below max pain; bearish drift until pin potential rises.
⚖️Dealer GEX -$189M favors shorts; any dip to flip reduces pressure.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Normal vol: IV around 22 VIX level, typical for GLD; no extreme premium.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Trending gamma: negative GEX -$189M, dealer hedging amplifies moves; flip near $360.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed flow: Net premium context unclear; OI skew bearish from put concentration.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Below MP: Spot at ~$374 vs max pain $397-401; bearish pin pressure absent near term.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Negative gamma and multi-week support/resistance levels suggest a directional drift over weeks, not just event-driven.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$365.48$383.68
Test lower guardrail $365.48; resistance at $383.68.
Next 1 week
$363.20$385.95
Bias shift if $360 holds; range $363.20-$385.95.
Next 2 weeks
$359.50$389.65
Breakdown risk below $360; structural support at $350.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $397 (2026-06-10); $401 (2026-06-12); $399 (2026-06-15)
EM guardrails: 2d $365.48/$383.68; 1w $363.20/$385.95
Support: $360.00 · $359.50 · $350.00
Resistance: $389.65 · $397.00
Gamma flip: ~$360.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 101,752 (3.9% below spot)
Structural: Support: 360 (gamma flip), 359.5, 350. Resistance: 389.65, 397 (max pain). EM guardrails: 2d 365.48/383.68, 1w 363.20/385.95.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-189.2M

DEX: +108.1M shares

Gamma flip: ~$360 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 101,752 (3.9% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX: -$189.2M (negative gamma). DEX: +108.1M shares (long delta). Gamma flip ~$360 based on put OI concentration of 101,752 contracts 3.9% below spot.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: GLD IV is near VIX levels, normal vs gold sector; no rich/cheap edge.

Term structure: Flat structure near term; slight backwardation near opex events.

Skew: Put skew elevated; selling puts at $360 support offers favorable risk-reward.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$427M with P/C vol ratio 1.12 (puts lead) but OI ratio 0.61 (calls dominate), indicating aggressive put buying in near-term.

Directional prints: 49.6 put 380 ITM 2026-06-10 — Vol/OI 6.8; large put volume vs OI suggests aggressive bearish positioning, likely bought. Preferred read: bearish. 16.8 put 375 ITM 2026-06-10 — Vol/OI 5.3; elevated put volume, likely sold for income or hedging. Preferred read: neutral-to-bearish.

Unusual: 32.8 call 390 OTM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI 19.1; extremely high ratio, likely bought as OTM call speculation. Unusual activity. 30.1 call 390 OTM 2026-06-10 — Vol/OI 16.1; similar to above, aggressive call buying despite bearish premium flow. 41.2 put 350 OTM 2026-06-15 — Vol/OI 16.0; OTM put with high vol, likely bought for downside protection or speculation.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot breaks below $360 gamma flip, accelerating downside.
!Gold-negative macro catalyst (e.g., dollar spike).
!Overdue mean reversion to max pain $397 if dealer hedging shifts.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate
Buy 2026-07-10 $375.00/$360.00 put spread
Why now: Negative dealer gamma and put flow bias suggest near-term downside. Spread limits risk if support holds.
If spot rallies above short strike, max loss is limited but risk of reversal.
Long putModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-07-17 $370.00 put
Why now: Aggressive put buying and negative gamma align with downside momentum. Long put captures tail risk.
Time decay if spot stagnates; spot could bounce from $360 support.

Top Plays

#1
Bear Put Spread $375/$360
Buy 2026-07-10 $375.00/$360.00 put spread
Buy Jul10 $375/$360 put spread to profit from decline to support, with capped loss if wrong
Why this play: Aligns with bearish bias while limiting risk if $360 support holds; lower cost than long put
Debit: $4.75-$5.80
Max loss: $5.80
BE: $369.20
Mgmt: Exit half at $360 test; hold remainder if breaks, else close at expiry
Traders seeking defined risk bearish play on GLD
#2
Long Put $370
Buy 2026-07-17 $370.00 put
Buy Jul17 $370 put to benefit from continued decline towards and beyond $360
Why this play: Captures downside tail risk with high reward potential; suitable for aggressive bearish conviction
Debit: $10.08-$12.32
Max loss: $12.32
BE: $357.68
Mgmt: Set stop at $390; scale out at $360 and $350
Aggressive traders with high conviction on downside

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFGLD price reaches $389.65 (resistance) with bearish reversal candlestick → Enter bear put spread $375/$360 at limit $5.30
IFGLD price breaks and closes below $360 (gamma flip) on increased volume → Buy long put $370 at limit $11.20
Adjustment Triggers
ADJGLD price declines to $360 → Close 50% of bear put spread position
Exit Triggers
EXITGLD price closes above $389.65 or below $350 → Close all bearish positions (bear put spread and long put)

Tactical Summary

Bearish near-term bias. The gamma flip at $360 is strong support; resistance at $389.65 (max pain). Ranked plays: bear put spread $375/$360 (defined risk) and long put $370 (tail risk). Enter on strength to $389.65 or breakdown below $360. Scale out at $360; exit if invalidation ($389.65) or further breakdown ($350).
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 10, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.