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GLD

SPDR Gold SharesClose $371.52EOD only
Max Pain
$375.00
Next expiry Jul 24, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.79
1.0% from close
Price Gap
+3.48
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
10
Low premium
P/C OI
0.47
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
4.5/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Jul 23, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects GLD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jul 23, 2026 close
GLD Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 8, 2026
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Outlook

Bullish leaning with target toward max pain at $403 and resistance $411. Dealer short gamma and long delta support upside momentum if spot holds above support $383.

Confidence:
8 / 10
GEX/flow alignment (+2), proximity to MP (+0.5), VIX level (+0.5).
Supports: Dealer long delta, spot below max pain, moderate VIX.
Conflicts: Mixed flow, short gamma could cause whipsaw.
📈Dealer short gamma + long delta favors upside momentum
🎯Max pain at $403 is near-term target
⚠️Gamma flip at $360 is key downside risk

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
IV normal vs history; VIX ~19 indicates moderate vol environment.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Trending gamma with GEX -$73.5M; short gamma amplifies directional moves.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed flow; no clear premium bias from options flow.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot ~$397, ~1.5% below max pain $403, suggesting upward drift potential.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Range structure and dealer positioning support a multi-week recovery toward resistance levels.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$391.10$403.43
Drift toward $403 max pain.
Next 1 week
$387.42$407.12
Gradual grind higher, resistance $407.
Next 2 weeks
$383.29$411.24
Extended upside toward $411 if momentum holds.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $403 (2026-06-08); $403 (2026-06-10); $408 (2026-06-12)
EM guardrails: 2d $391.10/$403.43; 1w $387.42/$407.12
Support: $383.29 · $360.00
Resistance: $403.00 · $411.24 · $425.00
Gamma flip: ~$360.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 101,934 (9.4% below spot)
Structural: Support at $383 (1w low) and $360 (gamma flip). Resistance at $403 (max pain), $411 (2w high), $425.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-73.5M

DEX: +98.2M shares

Gamma flip: ~$360 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 101,934 (9.4% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX -$73.5M (short gamma) amplifies moves; DEX +98.2M shares (long delta) supports upside.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: GLD IV elevated relative to VIX but not extreme; reflects event risk.

Term structure: Flat term structure with slight backwardation; no major kinks.

Skew: Put skew elevated; consider call spreads to capture upside.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net negative $196M, put/call volume 1.12 (puts dominant), OI ratio 0.60 favoring calls.

Directional prints: 8.8 put 398 ITM 2026-06-08 — Vol/OI 16.4x, 5991 vol vs 365 OI. Aggressive put buying, bearish sentiment. 4 put 397 OTM 2026-06-08 — Vol/OI 9.5x, 5232 vol. Additional put buying, reinforces bearish view.

Unusual: 3.5 call 398 OTM 2026-06-08 — Vol/OI 26.9x, IV 3.5% extremely low. Massively elevated call volume likely sell-side flow (short calls), bearish. 4.3 call 399 OTM 2026-06-08 — Vol/OI 16.7x, IV 4.3% low. Similar pattern, likely call selling.

Risks & Catalysts

!Break below $383 support
!Spike in VIX
!Gold price drop

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadStrong
Buy 2026-07-17 $415.00/$430.00 call spread
Why now: Dealer short gamma and long delta support upside; high probability target near $403-$411.
Break below $383 support invalidates; time decay if slow drift.
Put credit spreadModerate
Sell 2026-07-17 $380.00/$355.00 put spread
Why now: Support at $383 offers defined-risk zone; dealer gamma flips bullish above that level.
Gold drop below $383 causes max loss; overnight gap risk.

Top Plays

#1
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-07-17 $415.00/$430.00 call spread
Upside exposure via call spread targeting $403-$411.
Why this play: Aligns with bullish bias and dealer support; defined risk, high probability.
Debit: $2.75-$3.36
Max loss: $3.36
BE: $418.36
Mgmt: Exit at $411 resistance or if spot breaks $383.
Traders seeking capped risk bullish play.
#2
Put Credit Spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $380.00/$355.00 put spread
Sell put spread below support to collect premium.
Why this play: Defined-risk bearish hedge; support at $383 provides safety.
Credit: $3.11-$3.80
Max loss: $21.20
BE: $376.20
Mgmt: Roll if spot approaches $383; stop loss at invalidation.
Traders expecting sideways to slight upside.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFGLD spot holds above $383.29 support → Buy 2026-07-17 $415/$430 call spread at $2.75-$3.36 debit
IFGLD trades sideways above $383.29 → Sell 2026-07-17 $380/$355 put spread at $3.11-$3.80 credit
Exit Triggers
EXITGLD breaks below $383.29 support → Close all positions; hold cash

Tactical Summary

Bullish biase supported by dealer gamma and $383.29 support. Target $403-$411. Enter call spread on pullback; put credit spread if sideways. Invalidation below $383.29.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 8, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.