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GLD

SPDR Gold SharesClose $413.82EOD only
Max Pain
$415.00
Next expiry May 27, 2026
Expected Move
±$6.67
1.6% from close
Price Gap
+1.18
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
16
Low premium
P/C OI
0.58
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: May 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects GLD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 22, 2026 close
GLD Directional Report
Analysis based on market close May 26, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Gold (GLD) is pinned near max pain $415 with +$106.6M GEX and spot at MP. Normal vol and mixed flow suggest range-bound action. Bias is neutral-to-slightly bullish as dealer gamma supports pinning. Upside capped at $417.58 (2d) and downside at $410.42; a break requires strong catalyst.

Confidence:
7 / 10
Base 5; heavy GEX +1, spot at MP +1, low VIX +1, but mixed flow -1; net 7.
Supports: GEX +$106.6M pinning, spot at MP, max pain $415, low VIX 17.
Conflicts: Mixed flow with no directional conviction; volume not trending.
📌Spot at max pain $415, dealer gamma +$106.6M, pinning likely for May 27 expiry.
🛡️2d range $410.42-$417.58; 1w range $406.48-$421.52; support at $400.
⚠️Gamma flip far below at $360; not near-term risk.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Normal; IV near typical levels, VIX 17, no vol expansion.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Pinning; GEX +$106.6M near spot, strong dealer hedging in a narrow band.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed; net premium balanced, open interest suggests neutral positioning.
Spot vs Max Pain
At
At; spot <0.2% from $415 max pain, high probability of pinning through expiry.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Max pain pinning for May 27 and subsequent expiries (May 29, June 1) creates event-driven gamma dynamics over the next week.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$410.42$417.58
Range bound $410.42-$417.58; pinning near $415.
Next 1 week
$406.48$421.52
Wider range $406.48-$421.52; break requires catalyst.
Next 2 weeks
$399.38$428.62
Range $399.38-$428.62; gamma flip at $360 not within range.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $415 (2026-05-27); $418 (2026-05-29); $414 (2026-06-01)
EM guardrails: 2d $410.42/$417.58; 1w $406.48/$421.52
Support: $400.00 · $399.38
Resistance: $415.00 · $428.62 · $450.00
Gamma flip: ~$360.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 101,083 (13.0% below spot)
Structural: Support: $400 (psychological), $399.38 (2w low). Resistance: $415 (max pain), $428.62 (2w high), $450 (structural). Gamma flip: ~$360 (put OI concentration).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+106.6M

DEX: +99.3M shares

Gamma flip: ~$360 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 101,083 (13.0% below spot))

NTM gamma: Net gamma +$106.6M, positive and pinning near $415. Delta exposure +99.3M shares. Flip level at $360 (13% below spot).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: GLD IV is in line with VIX 17, roughly neutral; no rich/cheap signal.

Term structure: Term structure relatively flat with slight kink around May 27 expiry; front-end volatility contained.

Skew: Put skew elevated for downside protection; no extreme opportunity. Consider call verticals if bullish break above $417.58.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net put premium $208M, P/C vol near 1:1 but OI ratio favors calls, bearish flow with call hedging.

Directional prints: 19.9 put 413 OTM 2026-06-05 — 25x vol/OI, heavy put buying likely bearish. Preferred read: bearish. 20.7 call 415 OTM 2026-06-05 — 7.8x vol/OI, possible call selling given net put. Preferred read: bearish. 28.3 call 560 OTM 2026-12-18 — Long-dated OTM call, speculative bullish. Preferred read: bullish.

Unusual: 40.9 put 520 ITM 2026-07-17 — Deep ITM put, high IV, possible hedging or bearish. Preferred read: bearish. 61.1 put 530 ITM 2026-06-18 — Deep ITM put, very high IV, unusual bearish activity. Preferred read: bearish. 43.3 put 490 ITM 2026-06-18 — Deep ITM put, high vol/OI, bearish sentiment. Preferred read: bearish.

Risks & Catalysts

!Downside break below $410.42 could trigger gamma selloff to $406.48.
!Upside break above $417.58 may face resistance at $415 (max pain) but could extend to $421.52.
!Gamma flip at $360 is far but concentrated put OI adds tail risk.
!Macro gold/sentiment shift could overpower pinning dynamics.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Iron condorModerate
Sell 2026-06-12 $400.00/$395.00 put wing and $415.00/$416.00 call wing
Why now: GLD pinned with high GEX, normal IV; expected move 410-418; iron condor captures premium.
Loss if GLD breaks out above 420 or below 410; max loss defined.
Put credit spreadModerate-Strong
Sell 2026-06-12 $400.00/$395.00 put spread
Why now: GLD holds above $410 with put flow as hedging; premium collection with defined risk.
If GLD drops below 405, spread loses; max loss is width $5 per contract.

Top Plays

#1
Range-Bound Iron Condor
Sell 2026-06-12 $400.00/$395.00 put wing and $415.00/$416.00 call wing
Sells OTM put and call wings to profit from low volatility.
Why this play: Outranks put credit spread by capturing both sides of pin with theta decay.
Credit: $1.12-$1.37
Max loss: $3.63
BE: 398.63 / 416.37
Mgmt: Close if GLD breaks outside $400-$415; adjust if IV spikes.
Traders expecting GLD to stay within $395-$416.
#2
Bullish Put Credit Spread
Sell 2026-06-12 $400.00/$395.00 put spread
Sells OTM put for premium with defined risk, betting on support.
Why this play: Second choice as it aligns with slightly bullish bias but less versatile.
Credit: $0.70-$0.85
Max loss: $4.15
BE: $399.15
Mgmt: Close if GLD drops below $400; roll down if IV rises.
Traders with mild bullish outlook and defined risk preference.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF GLD holds $410-$415 with stable IV → THEN sell IC (400/395p, 415/416c) for 1.12-1.37 credit
IFIF GLD stays above $402 with bullish flow → THEN sell put spread (400/395p) for 0.70-0.85 credit
Exit Triggers
EXITIF GLD breaks below $400 or above $415 → THEN close iron condor
EXITIF GLD drops below $400 → THEN close put credit spread

Tactical Summary

GLD pinned near max pain $415, high GEX supports pinning. Neutral-to-slightly bullish. Key support $400, resistance $415. Prefer iron condor (range $410-$418); put credit spread as backup. Monitor breakouts beyond $410 or $418.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on May 26, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.