Home Options GLDReports

GLD

SPDR Gold SharesClose $417.12EOD only

Max Pain

$410.00

Next expiry Jun 1, 2026

Expected Move

±$5.04

1.2% from close

Price Gap

-7.12

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.56

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: May 29, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects GLD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 29, 2026 close

GLD Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 8, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 8, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 26, 2026.

View latest report

Outlook

Neutral-to-slightly-bullish with upside magnet toward $437-$440 driven by strong near-term GEX pinning and max pain clustered at $428-$435; Confidence: 5.5/10 (pre-computed). Primary supports: concentrated positive GEX at $437/$435 and flat MP ladder (~$428) compressing moves; main conflict: net premium negative $-271.6M and mixed flow that can sap short-premium edge.

Confidence:

5.5 / 10

Base 5.5 per pre-compute; +GEX pinning at $437/$435 supports mean reversion; -net premium $-271.6M and mixed flow reduce conviction; IV term shows short-dated skew but not extreme.

Supports: GEX concentrations +$7.3M at $437 and +$5.5M at $435; Max pain cluster $428-$435; EM lower bound $425.98 provides near-term floor.
Conflicts: Net premium outflow -$271.6M (bearish bias in flow); P/C vol 0.94 ~ balanced; large distant call OI wall $465-$595 can cap rallies.

📌GEX pin magnets at $435-$437 sitting within 0.6% of spot — central control for next 2 days

🪫Net premium negative $-271.6M and P/C OI 0.57 — institutions selling puts/demanding calls offspot

📈IV term: near-term ATM 34.8% (2d) then dips to ~29-32% out to 30d — short-dated vol elevated, mid-dated cheaper

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Volatility: 'Normal' — Avg IV 35.7% with short-dated ATM 34.8% elevated vs mid-term ~31%; means short-dated premium can be sold but watch event moves.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Gamma: 'Pinning' — concentrated positive GEX +$249.0M with biggest near-term clusters at $437/$435/$425 creates strong pinning force near spot and favors mean reversion into those levels.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Flow: 'Mixed' — net premium negative (-$271.6M) suggests directional buying of OTM calls or selling puts at distant strikes while P/C OI 0.57 shows more call OI; overall large distant call/synthetic interest offsets near-term pinning.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $434.53 is above Max Pain (~$428-$435 range) by ~1.5%; dealers will hedge by selling upside deltacalls near pin which helps hold spot near $435.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Pinning and MP cluster persist across multiple expirations ($428-$435 flat ladder) and GEX sign positive across near expiries (multi-expiration support), so prefer 30-45 DTE for primary trades with weeklies for tactical overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$425.98$443.08

Pin magnets at $435/$437 and 2d EM $425.98-$443.08; failure below $425.98 opens downside to $416-$420.

Next 1 week

$423.13$445.93

1-week EM $423.13-$445.93; MP $428-$435 and concentrated GEX make mid-$430s a gravitational zone.

Next 2 weeks

$416.05$453.00

2-week EM $416.05-$453.00; large distant call OI wall $465-$595 likely limits extension above $460 without macro catalyst.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $428 (2026-04-08); $425 (2026-04-10); $428 (2026-04-13)

EM guardrails: 2d $425.98/$443.08; 1w $423.13/$445.93

Support: $425.00 · $428.00 · $435.00

Resistance: $443.08 · $450.00 · $465.00

Gamma flip: ~$360.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 100,918 (17.2% below spot)

Structural: Structural call OI wall from $465 to $595 caps upside structurally; structural put floor concentrated at $360 provides deep downside support for multi-month protective positioning.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+249.0M

DEX: +142.0M shares

Gamma flip: ~$360 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 100,918 (17.2% below spot))

NTM gamma: Near-term positive gamma concentrated at $437 (+$7.3M) and $435 (+$5.5M) creates pinning and dealer short-delta hedges that buy on dips toward those strikes; if spot falls ~2% to ~$425 dealers will buy to hedge (support), if spot rises ~2% to ~$443 dealers will sell delta (resistance), reducing momentum in both directions.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Avg IV 35.7% vs broad equity VIX context (not provided) — IV is normal for GLD; short-dated IV (2d ATM 34.8%) is elevated vs 30d (~31.8%), favoring short near-dated premium where gamma is concentrated.

Term structure: Downward-to-flat slope after 2d: 2d 34.8% → 5d 29.2% → 30d ~31.8%; short-dated bump indicates event/week volatility priced higher than 30d-term.

Skew: Skew: high OTM put IV (deep $360 put IV concentration) and elevated short-dated ATM IV; mispriced opportunity: sell short-dated options around pin (weekly) and buy 30-45d for roll protection — e.g., sell 4/10/4/13 calls, buy 5/8 calls (vol differential ~+2-4 pts).

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium: -$271.6M (net buyer of premium on the exchange side; large institutional call buy / put sell flows out-of-spot)

Directional prints: 31.8 call 439 OTM 4/17 — GLD260417C00439000 heavy prints vol 6,722 vs OI 148 (45x) — could be new call buys or assignable spreads; aligns with upside skew and dealer pin hedging. 32 call 437 OTM 4/17 — GLD260417C00437000 prints vol 2,276 vs OI 481 (4.7x) — fresh call demand near $437 pin.

Unusual: 34.5 call 434 ITM 4/10 — GLD260410C00434000 ITM short-dated call prints vol 581 vs OI 193 (3.0x) — dealer activity around weekly expiry, consistent with pin hedging.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip sits near $360 — large breakpoint if spot crashes toward that level (structural support then becomes irrelevant in near-term).

!Failure below EM lower bound $425.98 would likely cascade dealer unwind and accelerate downside flow toward $416-$420.

!Distant call OI wall $465-$595 can cap rallies; sudden macro risk-on (commodity-driven) could blow past these walls, causing vol spikes.

!Weekly expiries (4/10, 4/13) are clustered around MP and could produce pin churn or a sharp pin-release move.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy GLD shares at market (spot $434.53)	Drawdown if pin fails and flow turns negative; capital-intensive.
Short stock	Weak	Avoid initiating naked short given positive GEX pinning and dealer support at $435-$437	Pinning and dealer hedging likely buy dips into pins.
Covered call	Moderate	Buy stock + sell 2026-05-08 $450 call	Upside capped at $450; IV collapse into mid-May reduces premium collected.
Cash-secured put	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-24 $425 put (CSP) or 2026-05-08 $425 put	Spot < $425 opens assignment; significant downside if EM breaks below $425.98.
Short-dated put spread	Strong	Sell 2026-04-10 $425 / buy $420 put spread	Gamma flip below $360 irrelevant here; risk limited to $5 width if GLD gaps down past $420.
Long calls (directional)	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-04-17 $440 call	Premium decay and pin cap near $437-$443 make timing sensitive.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-04-24 $420 / sell $410 put spread	Expensive downside protection given current support; better as hedge vs existing longs.
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-17 $435/$425 put x $445/$450 call iron-condor	Pin release below $425 or rally past $450 will breach wings; credit finite but vulnerable to sudden vol moves.
Calendar/diagonal (sell high-IV leg)	Moderate	Sell 2026-04-10 $435 call, buy 2026-05-08 $435 call (sell higher IV near-term, buy cheaper 30d) — vol diff ~+2-3 pts	If spot gaps through $435 before roll, short near-term leg suffers; require active management.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy 2026-12-18 LEAP call $450, sell 2026-04-24 $450 call (covered-call diagonal)	Time premium decay and assignment risk on short monthly leg; requires longer-term bullish view.

Top Plays

Short-dated put spread (weekly)

Sell 2026-04-10 $425 / buy $420 put spread

Highest-probability defined-risk short premium play riding the GEX pin at $425-$437 and tight 2d EM; short-dated IV elevated so receive decent credit.

Credit: $0.40-$0.65

Max loss: $5.00

BE: $424.60

Mgmt: Take profit at 60% of max credit; cut if spot < $422 or VIX spikes > +6 pts.

Traders seeking defined-risk premium collection into weekly expiry

Iron Condor (multi-week)

Sell 2026-04-17 $435/$425 put x $445/$450 call iron-condor

Uses persistent MP and GEX pin to collect premium across the $423-$446 1w EM while keeping defined risk; 30-45d placement preferred for better roll liquidity.

Credit: $1.00-$1.80

Max loss: $9.00

BE: Lower: 434.00, Upper: 456.00

Mgmt: Take profit at 50-70% of max credit; adjust/roll wings outward if spot trades inside one wing for 2 sessions.

Accounts wanting balanced income with defined risk over multi-week horizon

Calendar/Diagonal (vol differential play)

Sell 2026-04-10 $435 call, buy 2026-05-08 $435 call (sell higher IV near-term, buy 30d)

Exploit short-dated IV bump (2d ATM 34.8% vs 30d ~31.8%) and dealer pinning to collect theta while maintaining upside exposure; positive GEX reduces risk of large early gap moves.

Credit: $0.30-$0.70

Max loss: Variable

BE: N/A

Mgmt: Close the short leg before expiry if spot > $440 or if calendar loses >50% edge; roll short leg out one week to collect more premium.

Vol traders wanting asymmetric upside with limited theta bleed

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot tags $435 and holds for 30 minutes → Sell 2026-04-17 $435/$425 put spread (defined-risk) or sell weekly 4/10 $425/$420 put spread if targeting higher theta.

IFIf spot tags $437 and fails to sustain above for 2 sessions → Initiate 2026-04-17 iron-condor: sell $435/$425 put x $445/$450 call.

IFIf 30d ATM IV > 34% while spot remains between $428-$440 → Sell 2026-05-08 $435 calendar (sell shorter-dated leg) to capture elevated mid-term IV.

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf spot rallies above $443.08 (2d EM upper) on >$50M notional flow → Buy protection: convert short condors to broken-wing or buy 2026-05-08 $450 call for protection.

ADJIf spot drops below $425.98 (2d EM lower) → Close short premium (puts or condors) and flip to long-dated protective puts (buy 2026-05-08 $420 put).

Exit Triggers

EXITIf VIX-like cross-asset vol proxy jumps +6 pts intraday or short-dated IV jumps > +6 pts → Exit all short premium trades immediately.

EXITIf spot closes > $450 on daily basis (break above 1w EM and call OI cluster begins to roll) → Take profits on bullish diagonals and close covered calls at target.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: GLD is pinned to mid-$430s ($435-$437) with multi-week mean-reversion edge; invalidate thesis on sustained close below $425.98 which signals pin failure and accelerates downside; regime favors defined short premium (weekly/dated put spreads, iron condors) and calendar/diagonal structures for traders capitalizing on short-dated vol bump.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 8, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.