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CVNA

Carvana Co.Close $66.20EOD only

Max Pain

$67.00

Next expiry Jun 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$2.02

3.1% from close

Price Gap

+0.80

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.84

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 25, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CVNA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 25, 2026 close

CVNA Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 26, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias toward max pain $67 as spot below key pin, supported by dealer long delta and flow; high vol warrants caution.

Confidence:

6.5 / 10

Base 5; +2 dealer long delta supportive; -1 spot far from MP; +0.5 VIX 18 -> 6.5

Supports: Dealer long delta +38.6M, spot below max pain $67, flow supportive
Conflicts: High vol regime, negative GEX ($-16.8M) short gamma risk

🎯Max pain $67 (Jun 26) upside target

⚠️Short gamma amplifies vol; expect sharp moves

📈Dealer long delta provides underlying support

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High vol regime; IV elevated, VIX 18.4

Gamma Regime

Trending

Trending gamma; GEX -16.8M, flip ~$60 from put OI

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed flow; net premium context unclear

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot below max pain $67 (~6.9%), upside pinning pressure

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Jun 26 max pain pin dominates near-term; gamma flip at $60 provides support

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$57.82$66.88

Support $60 (gamma flip), upside to $67 MP; resistance $66.88

Next 2 weeks

$55.50$69.20

Continuation to $69.2; support $55.5

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $67 (2026-06-26); $66 (2026-07-02); $68 (2026-07-10)

EM guardrails: 1w $57.82/$66.88

Support: $60.00 · $55.50

Resistance: $67.00 · $69.20

Gamma flip: ~$60.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 17,290 (3.8% below spot)

Structural: Support $60 (gamma flip), $55.5; Resistance $67 (MP), $66.88, $69.2

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-16.8M

DEX: +38.6M shares

Gamma flip: ~$60 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 17,290 (3.8% below spot))

NTM gamma: Short gamma ($-16.8M) with flip $60; long delta (+38.6M shares) directional bias

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV rich vs VIX 18.4; elevated vol regime

Term structure: Steep with event kink at Jun 26

Skew: Put skew; calendar spread to exploit high near-term vol

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net -$5.63M, put/call vol 1.10, OI 0.84: bearish flow, put-heavy.

Directional prints: 64 call 69 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol/OI 14.3x; heavy call buying likely bullish, though possibly short covering. 64.3 put 63.5 ITM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 3.9x; aggressive put buying, bearish read. 68.9 put 57 OTM 2026-07-10 — Vol/OI 3.2x; put accumulation, bearish expectation.

Unusual: 26.6 call 64 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 6.1x, expiring today; unusual volume, likely closing or hedging. 45.3 call 65.5 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 4.3x; near-expiry call activity, unusual. 50 call 620 OTM 2026-09-18 — Vol/OI 2.5x; deep OTM call, lottery ticket speculation.

Risks & Catalysts

!Upside short squeeze past MP due to short gamma

!Downside breakdown below $60 flip

!IV crush post-June OPEX

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-31 $67.00/$68.00 call spread Why now: Bull call spread captures upside with limited cost and risk, ideal for event-specific high vol environment.	Upside cap at short strike; max loss limited to net debit. IV crush if move slower than expected. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Wide spread (78%).; short_call: Wide spread (75%).
Long call	Moderate	Buy 2026-08-21 $66.00 call Why now: Long call benefits from directional move and vol expansion; longer expiration avoids early pin risk.	Time decay if move delayed; vol crush post-earnings could offset gains.
Put credit spread	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-07-31 $60.00/$59.00 put spread Why now: Put credit spread collects premium while defining tail risk; suited for bullish-neutral stance in high vol.	If spot breaks below short put, max loss incurred; IV increase could temporarily hurt mark-to-market. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (86%).

Top Plays

Long call

Buy 2026-08-21 $66.00 call

Buy 2026-08-21 $66 call, benefits from directional move and vol smile.

Why this play: Best captures bullish momentum and vol expansion with longer dated expiration; liquidity confirms ability to execute.

Debit: $5.74-$7.01

Max loss: $7.01

BE: $73.01

Mgmt: Stop at $60 invalidation; consider taking profits above $75.

Aggressive traders seeking unlimited upside.

Bull call spread

Buy 2026-07-31 $67.00/$68.00 call spread

Buy 2026-07-31 $67/$68 call spread, captures move to max pain $67.

Why this play: Low-cost limited risk play ideal for event-specific bullish view despite high vol.

Debit: $0.03-$0.03

Max loss: $0.03

BE: $67.03

Mgmt: Exit at expiration or if stock drops below $60. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Wide spread (78%).; short_call: Wide spread (75%).

Event-driven traders with defined risk tolerance.

Put credit spread

Sell 2026-07-31 $60.00/$59.00 put spread

Sell 2026-07-31 $60/$59 put spread, earns credit if CVNA stays above $60.

Why this play: Collects premium with defined tail risk; suitable for bullish-neutral stance.

Credit: $0.27-$0.33

Max loss: $0.67

BE: $59.67

Mgmt: Buy back if stock approaches $60; potentially roll for credit. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (86%).

Conservative traders seeking income with high probability.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF CVNA holds above $60 support and breaks above $66.88 resistance → THEN buy 2026-08-21 $66 call for directional upside

IFIF CVNA rallies toward $67 max pain but stays below $68 → THEN buy 2026-07-31 $67/$68 call spread for defined risk

IFIF CVNA remains above $61 with bullish bias → THEN sell 2026-07-31 $60/$59 put spread to collect premium

Exit Triggers

EXITIF CVNA closes below $60 → THEN exit all long positions and close put spreads

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias toward max pain $67. Key support at $60 (gamma flip), resistance at $67. Enter long call on break above $66.88; bull call spread near $67; put credit spread above $61. Exit if $60 breaks. High vol warrants caution; manage risk tightly.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 26, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.