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CVNA

Carvana Co.Close $68.90EOD only
Max Pain
$74.00
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$4.08
5.9% from close
Price Gap
+5.10
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
70
High premium
P/C OI
0.86
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
5.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 15, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CVNA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 15, 2026 close
CVNA Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 16, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

CVNA shows bullish pinning with positive GEX (+$13.5M) and dealer long gamma, but spot is 5.4% below max pain ($74) and market is weak (QQQ -1.9%). Near-term pinning to $74 likely, but downside risk to gamma flip at $60 if support fails. Thesis is cautiously bullish with tight stops.

Confidence:
7 / 10
Base 5; +1 GEX/flow weakly aligned; +1 GEX positive; -1 spot distance from MP; +1 VIX 16. Net 7.0
Supports: Positive GEX and DEX; gamma pinning at $74; VIX elevated supporting vol premium
Conflicts: Bearish market context (QQQ -1.9%); spot below MP; gamma flip at $60
📌Positive GEX $13.5M pins spot toward $74 max pain
⚠️Spot 5.4% below MP, risk of gamma flip at $60 (put OI 17,112)
📉Market weak - QQQ -1.9%, headwind for upside

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High vol regime - IV elevated vs VIX 16.41, reflecting event-driven uncertainty
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Pinning regime - positive GEX ($13.5M) with dealer long gamma, supports spot near key strikes
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed flow - net premium unclear, P/C ratio not provided but positive GEX suggests call bias
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Below MP - spot trading below $74 max pain, 5.4% downside deviation
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Key max pain dates: 06/18 ($74), 06/26 ($68), 07/02 ($67) - weekly pinning dynamics dictate near-term moves

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$66.64$73.45
Pinning to $74 max pain; EM guardrails $66.64-$73.45
Next 1 week
$63.49$76.59
Max pain shifts to $68 on 06/26, possible drift lower
Next 2 weeks
$62.07$78.02
Support at $62.07, resistance $78.02; gamma flip at $60 if broken

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $74 (2026-06-18); $68 (2026-06-26); $67 (2026-07-02)
EM guardrails: 2d $66.64/$73.45; 1w $63.49/$76.59
Support: $70.00 · $62.07
Resistance: $74.00 · $78.02
Gamma flip: ~$60.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 17,112 (14.3% below spot)
Structural: MP: $74 (06/18), $68 (06/26), $67 (07/02). EM guardrails: 2d $66.64/$73.45; 1w $63.49/$76.59. Support $70, $62.07; resistance $74, $78.02. Gamma flip ~$60.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+13.5M

DEX: +42.5M shares

Gamma flip: ~$60 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 17,112 (14.3% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$13.5M, DEX +42.5M shares. Gamma flip at ~$60 (put OI concentration 17,112).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV high relative to VIX 16.41, implying elevated event premium

Term structure: Likely upward sloping with kinks at max pain expiry dates (06/18, 06/26, 07/02)

Skew: Put skew elevated due to below-spot positioning; no clear vol arbitrage identified

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium +$528K with put/call volume ratio 1.42, bullish flow bias.

Directional prints:

Unusual: 70.2 call 120 OTM 2027-03-19 — Vol/OI 2.6, IV 70% – high relative volume; likely bought (bullish speculation). 50 call 620 OTM 2026-09-18 — Vol/OI 2.5, IV 50% – elevated activity; likely bought (bullish). 66.1 put 68 OTM 2026-07-24 — Vol/OI 1.9, IV 66% – heightened activity; likely bought (hedging/bearish).

Risks & Catalysts

!Broader market weakness (QQQ -1.9%) could drag CVNA
!Spot 5.4% below MP; failure to hold $70 support may accelerate to gamma flip at $60
!High vol regime increases tail risk

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Put credit spreadModerate
Sell 2026-06-18 $70.00/$69.50 put spread
Why now: Positive GEX, dealer long gamma, and bullish flow support. Defined risk mitigates downside.
Broader market weakness could push below $70, turning spread into loss.
Call calendarModerate-Strong
Sell 2026-06-18 $74.00 call / buy 2026-06-26 $74.00 call
Why now: Near-term IV elevated; back-month cheaper in vol. Pin to $74 supports structure.
Post-earnings rally could hurt short call; prolonged drop hurts long call.

Top Plays

#1
Bullish Put Spread
Sell 2026-06-18 $70.00/$69.50 put spread
Sell $70/$69.50 put spread to capture premium with support from dealer long gamma.
Why this play: Directly profits from bullish bias with defined risk, supported by positive GEX and bullish flow.
Credit: $0.21-$0.25
Max loss: $0.25
BE: $69.75
Mgmt: Exit if CVNA breaks below $70; set stop at 2x credit received.
Traders seeking high probability, limited risk bullish exposure.
#2
Volatility Calendar
Sell 2026-06-18 $74.00 call / buy 2026-06-26 $74.00 call
Sell nearer call, buy later call to profit from IV decay if spot stays near $74.
Why this play: Leverages pinning to $74 and elevated near-term IV, but more complex and lower probability.
Debit: $1.15-$1.40
Max loss: $1.40
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Close if spot deviates >$2 from $74 or if IV collapses.
Traders comfortable with volatility and pinning assumptions.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFCVNA holds above $70 support with bullish confirmation → Sell the $70/$69.50 put credit spread (cvna_put_credit_1)
IFCVNA trades near $74 (max pain) with stable IV → Enter call calendar: sell Jun 18 $74 call / buy Jun 26 $74 call (cvna_calendar_1)
Adjustment Triggers
ADJCVNA deviates >$2 from $74 but above $70 → Close calendar; hold put spread
Exit Triggers
EXITCVNA breaks below $70 support → Close both put spread and calendar immediately

Tactical Summary

Cautiously bullish. Entry put spread above $70 or calendar near $74. Exit both if $70 breaks. Adjust calendar if spot deviates >$2 from $74.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 16, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.