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CVNA

Carvana Co.Close $67.91EOD only
Max Pain
$67.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.35
4.9% from close
Price Gap
-0.91
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
52
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.84
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 24, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CVNA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 24, 2026 close
CVNA Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 25, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias into expiry with pinning to $67, but downside risk below $64.17. Post-expiry, drift toward $70 resistance possible.

Confidence:
7 / 10
Base 5 +1 GEX +0.5 spot-MP +0.5 VIX = 7; no override needed.
Supports: GEX +$4.4M, spot 1.2% below MP $67, support $64.17 (EM guardrail).
Conflicts: Mixed flow, resistance $67, gamma flip $60 (9.4% below spot).
🔒Gamma pin near $67 (max pain for 6/26 expiry)
⚖️Mixed flow; P/C neutral, no conviction
⚠️Gamma flip ~$60; break below accelerates downside

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV elevated vs typical range; VIX ~19 supports above-normal vol into expiry.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
GEX +$4.4M, gamma flip ~$60 far below spot; dealer long gamma pins near $67.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Net premium mixed, P/C ratio neutral; no dominant directional flow.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot ~1.2% below max pain $67; pinning toward $67 likely at expiry.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Expiry June 26 dominates; spot near MP with dealer long gamma and elevated vol.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$64.17$68.22
Pin to $67; range $64.17-$68.22
Next 1 week
$61.09$71.31
Post-expiry drift; range $61.09-$71.31
Next 2 weeks
$58.65$73.75
Resistance $70+ and gamma flip risk; range $58.65-$73.75

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $67 (2026-06-26); $66 (2026-07-02); $68 (2026-07-10)
EM guardrails: 2d $64.17/$68.22; 1w $61.09/$71.31
Support: $60.00 · $58.65
Resistance: $67.00 · $70.00 · $73.75
Gamma flip: ~$60.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 17,284 (9.4% below spot)
Structural: Max pain $67 (6/26), $66 (7/2), $68 (7/10); EM guardrails 2d $64.17/$68.22, 1w $61.09/$71.31; support $60, $58.65; resistance $67, $70, $73.75; gamma flip ~$60.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+4.4M

DEX: +37.8M shares

Gamma flip: ~$60 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 17,284 (9.4% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$4.4M (positive), DEX +37.8M shares long, gamma flip ~$60 (put OI concentration).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: CVNA IV rich vs VIX due to event risk; elevated vol expected into expiry, then crush post-event.

Term structure: Front-end elevated, backwardation post-expiry; event kink at June 26 expiry.

Skew: Put skew steep below $64; call skew flat. Consider short put spread or calendar vol arbitrage.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net negative $887k; put vol ratio 1.13 vs OI ratio 0.84 indicates bearish flow.

Directional prints: 80.9 put 56 OTM 2026-07-31 — Vol 2x OI, elevated IV; likely buyer hedging/protective, preferred bearish.

Unusual: 51 call 68 OTM 2026-06-26 — Weekly call vol 2.6x OI; may be bullish spec or premium sale, preferred bullish. 50 call 620 OTM 2026-09-18 — Deep OTM call vol 2.5x OI; likely lottery buyer or writer, preferred bullish. 80.9 put 56 OTM 2026-07-31 — Put vol 2x OI, high IV; possible hedge or bearish bet, preferred bearish.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot break below $60 gamma flip triggers dealer hedging.
!Post-expiry vol crush if no catalyst.
!Mixed flow shifts bearish on close below $64.17.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadModerate-Weak
Buy 2026-07-31 $69.00/$78.00 call spread
Why now: Thesis expects upward bias with resistance at $70; bull call spread limits downside while targeting $70.
If spot stays below $67 at expiry, full premium loss; bearish flow may cap upside. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.; short_call: Volume below 5.
Long callModerate-Weak
Buy 2026-08-21 $68.00 call
Why now: Bullish thesis with follow-through after earnings; long call captures upside with convexity.
Time decay and premium erosion if move fails; bearish flow pressure.

Top Plays

#1
Bull call spread
Buy 2026-07-31 $69.00/$78.00 call spread
Captures upside to $70 with limited downside.
Why this play: Defined risk for event pinning; aligns with $70 target despite liquidity miss.
Debit: $2.57-$3.15
Max loss: $3.15
BE: $72.15
Mgmt: Exit if spot below $60. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.; short_call: Volume below 5.
Conservative bullish on earnings.
#2
Long call
Buy 2026-08-21 $68.00 call
Leveraged convexity post-earnings.
Why this play: Unlimited upside and liquidity pass; suits aggressive bullish follow-through.
Debit: $6.77-$8.28
Max loss: $8.28
BE: $76.28
Mgmt: Trail stops; exit below $60.
Aggressive bullish with higher risk tolerance.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFSpot holds above $64.17 (2d EM guardrail) with bullish momentum in next 2 days. → Enter bull call spread: buy 2026-07-31 $69/$78 call spread near $2.86.
IFSpot breaks above $67 resistance on volume. → Enter long call: buy 2026-08-21 $68 call near $7.53.
Exit Triggers
EXITSpot closes below $60 (gamma flip/invalidation). → Exit all positions.

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias for 2 days then neutral; key support $64.17, resistance $67/$70. Prioritize bull call spread (rank 1) for pinning, long call (rank 2) for breakout. Invalidation at $60.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 25, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.