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CVNA

Carvana Co.Close $64.10EOD only
Max Pain
$76.00
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$4.46
7.0% from close
Price Gap
+11.90
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
65
High premium
P/C OI
0.86
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
4.0/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CVNA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 12, 2026 close
CVNA Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 12, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias with high confidence. Negative dealer gamma and spot below max pain suggest upward pressure toward $67. Low VIX and trending gamma support near-term momentum.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
Base 5, +2 GEX alignment, -0.5 spot distance, +1 VIX => 7.5.
Supports: Negative GEX, positive DEX, low VIX, trending gamma.
Conflicts: Mixed flow classification, spot below MP by 4.3%.
📉Dealers short gamma (-$13.6M) – amplifying moves.
🎯Spot ~$64, 4.3% below Jun12 max pain $67 – pin target.
⚠️Mixed flow warns of potential reversal if momentum stalls.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High vol – implied vol likely elevated vs historical range, supporting larger swings.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Trending gamma – large negative GEX ($-13.6M) accelerates directional moves.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed flow – net premium context unclear; put/call ratio not available.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Below MP – spot ~4.3% under $67, creating upward pull toward pin.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — High vol, trending gamma, and spot below MP suggest near-term event-driven move toward max pain.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week
$59.64$68.55
Upside toward $67 MP likely.
Next 2 weeks
$57.30$70.90
Potential expansion to $70.9 if breakout.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $67 (2026-06-12); $76 (2026-06-18); $68 (2026-06-26)
EM guardrails: 1w $59.64/$68.55
Support: $60.00 · $57.30
Resistance: $67.00 · $70.90
Gamma flip: ~$60.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 16,544 (6.4% below spot)
Structural: Support: 60.0, 57.3; Resistance: 67.0, 70.9; Gamma flip ~$60; Max pain $67 (Jun12), $76 (Jun18), $68 (Jun26).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-13.6M

DEX: +43.4M shares

Gamma flip: ~$60 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 16,544 (6.4% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX: $-13.6M (short gamma); DEX: +43.4M shares (long delta); Gamma flip at ~$60.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Ticker IV not provided; high vol regime suggests rich vs VIX (17.68).

Term structure: Not available from input; likely near-term elevated due to event.

Skew: Not available; skewed puts likely given spot below MP.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$9.6M (bearish flow) with PC vol ratio 1.08 (slight put bias) and OI ratio 0.86 (bearish).

Directional prints: 62.9 call 65.5 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 11.5x; suggests aggressive new buying; preferred read bullish. 61.8 call 68.5 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 10x; indicates strong call buying; preferred read bullish. 61.9 call 69.5 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 5.7x; notable call volume; preferred read bullish.

Unusual: 50 call 620 OTM 2026-09-18 — Vol/OI 2.5x; extreme OTM lottery, possible speculative buy; preferred read bullish. 163.2 put 62.5 OTM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI 2.6x; high IV, expiring today, price $0.02; likely distressed or hedge; preferred read neutral. 78 put 65.5 ITM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI 2.2x; elevated IV, same-day expiration; may be closing; preferred read neutral.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot fails to hold above gamma flip $60, triggering dealer hedging.
!Mixed flow turns net bearish on premium breakdown.
!Broader market reversal (SPY/QQQ) drags CVNA lower.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadModerate
Buy 2026-07-17 $74.00/$82.00 call spread
Why now: Bullish bias confirmed by flow and gamma exposure; limited downside.
Upside capped at short strike; time decay works against if move delayed. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Volume below 5.; short_call: Volume below 5.
Long callModerate-Weak
Buy 2026-07-24 $70.00 call
Why now: Positive gamma and low VIX support convexity; flow shows aggressive call buying.
Theta decay accelerates if no immediate move; defined downside but high premium if OTM. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Wide spread (54%).
Put credit spreadModerate
Sell 2026-07-17 $55.00/$50.00 put spread
Why now: Put skew rich; selling puts to collect premium with defined risk.
Breakdown below short strike causes max loss; management needed if spot declines.

Top Plays

#1
Aggressive Call Buy
Buy 2026-07-24 $70.00 call
Long call for high convexity with low VIX.
Why this play: Strong bullish flow and gamma support; unlimited upside.
Debit: $4.37-$5.33
Max loss: $5.33
BE: $75.33
Mgmt: Set stop at $60 invalidation. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Wide spread (54%).
Traders seeking high convexity, comfortable with higher cost.
#2
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-07-17 $74.00/$82.00 call spread
Call spread for risk-controlled bullish play.
Why this play: Lower cost, defined risk, still benefits from upside.
Debit: $1.10-$1.35
Max loss: $1.35
BE: $75.35
Mgmt: Hold through earnings; exit if below $60. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Volume below 5.; short_call: Volume below 5.
Traders wanting limited risk, lower premium.
#3
Put Credit Spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $55.00/$50.00 put spread
Sell put spread to profit from time decay and drift.
Why this play: Liquid, defined risk, collects premium with bullish bias.
Credit: $0.88-$1.08
Max loss: $3.92
BE: $53.92
Mgmt: Manage at $55; roll if tested.
Traders preferring theta collection, lower risk.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIf spot holds above gamma flip $60 and breaks above $62 with volume → Buy 2026-07-24 $70 call for $4.37-$5.33 (strat2)
IFIf spot tests support $60 and bounces → Buy 2026-07-17 $74/$82 call spread for $1.10-$1.35 (strat1)
IFIf spot stays above $60 and VIX remains low → Sell 2026-07-17 $55/$50 put spread for $0.88-$1.08 (strat3)
Exit Triggers
EXITIf spot closes below $60 (invalidation) → Exit all long positions; close call spreads and long calls
EXITIf spot falls below $55 → Manage/close put credit spread to limit losses

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias with gamma flip $60 support; max pain $67. Favor long call or call spread on pullbacks. Put credit spread for theta collection. Invalidation below $60. Manage risk during low VIX.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 12, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.