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CVNA

Carvana Co.Close $64.10EOD only
Max Pain
$76.00
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$4.46
7.0% from close
Price Gap
+11.90
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
65
High premium
P/C OI
0.86
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
4.0/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CVNA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 12, 2026 close
CVNA Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 15, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish bias near-term as bearish flow and spot below max pain outweigh dealer gamma pinning. Persistent selling pressure targets support near $60, but pinning may delay breakdown.

Confidence:
5 / 10
Base 5; adjustments: -1 GEX/flow contradict, +1 GEX positive (pinning), -1 spot 6.9% from MP, +1 VIX 16 → net 5.
Supports: Dealer long gamma ($+9M GEX) near $74 pin, DEX +41.6M shares structural support.
Conflicts: Bearish flow (net put premium), spot below MP, regime vol high suggests continued selling.
📉Bearish flow dominates – net put premium signals institutional hedging.
📌Gamma pin at $74 (Jun 18 OPEX) may cap upside, attract spot.
⚠️Spot ~6.9% below max pain – mean reversion risk to $74, but flow suggests break.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Regime vol High – IV elevated vs typical range, sustained by bearish flow and event risk (OPEX cycle).
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Gamma pinning active with $+9M GEX; dealer long gamma near $74 and $67 pins stabilizes spot intraday.
Flow Regime
Bearish
Bearish flow – net put premium over calls, indicating downside hedging or speculative short bias.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot below nearest max pain ($74) by ~6.9%, suggesting magnetic pull upward but counteracted by flow.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Two OPEX cycles (Jun 18 & 26) and price ranges tied to expiry dates. High vol and pinning are event-driven.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$64.82$72.99
Spot below guardrail $64.82; bearish flow may test support $64.82, pin at $74 is distant.
Next 2 weeks
$60.45$77.35
Multiple OPEX pins ($74, $67, $66) and bearish flow target $60.45 support; gamma flip at $60.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $74 (2026-06-18); $67 (2026-06-26); $66 (2026-07-02)
EM guardrails: 2d $64.82/$72.99
Support: $60.45
Resistance: $74.00 · $77.35
Gamma flip: ~$60.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 16,904 (12.9% below spot)
Structural: Support: 60.45 (structural gamma flip), Resistance: 74.0 (max pain Jun 18), 77.35 (2w high). Guardrails 2d: $64.82/$72.99.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+9.0M

DEX: +41.6M shares

Gamma flip: ~$60 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 16,904 (12.9% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$9.0M (long gamma), DEX +41.6M shares (net long delta). Gamma flip near $60 based on put OI concentration.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV elevated vs VIX (regime High vol), highlighting rich implied premiums and potential selling opportunity.

Term structure: Front-end elevated due to OPEX pinning (Jun 18 & 26), flattening into later expiries as event risk recedes.

Skew: Put skew elevated from bearish flow; consider put credit spreads at support or selling out-of-the-money puts near $60.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$2.28M with put/call volume ratio 1.32, OI ratio 0.86, indicating bearish flow overall.

Directional prints: 70.3 put 58 OTM 2026-07-17 — Volume 4391 vs OI 1939, vol/OI 2.3, aggressive new put buying; bearish sentiment.

Unusual: 69.6 call 68 ITM 2026-07-10 — Volume 738 vs OI 205, vol/OI 3.6, unusually high turnover; new ITM call buying. 71.2 call 71 OTM 2026-06-18 — Volume 743 vs OI 267, vol/OI 2.8, elevated OTM call activity; speculative. 50 call 620 OTM 2026-09-18 — Volume 485 vs OI 191, vol/OI 2.5, extreme OTM call; lottery ticket.

Risks & Catalysts

!Upside gamma squeeze if spot rallies to max pain $74, overwhelming bearish flow.
!Broader market tailwinds (SPY/QQQ up) lifting CVNA despite flow.
!Gamma flip below $60 accelerates sell-off; dealer hedging turns negative.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-07-17 $68.00/$60.00 put spread
Why now: Net negative premium and unusual put volume; defined risk with bearish flow.
Upside gamma squeeze if spot rallies to $74; pinning may delay breakdown.
Call credit spreadModerate
Sell 2026-07-17 $70.00/$74.00 call spread
Why now: Spot below max pain; call credit spread caps risk while collecting premium.
Upside gamma squeeze if spot rallies above $70; limited risk.
Long putModerate
Buy 2026-07-17 $64.00 put
Why now: Aggressive put buying at $58 indicates expected decline; long put for convexity.
Time decay if move delayed; pinning near max pain may slow decline.

Top Plays

#1
Bear Put Spread
Buy 2026-07-17 $68.00/$60.00 put spread
Profit from decline below $68 with capped loss.
Why this play: Best aligns with bearish flow and defined risk.
Debit: $2.73-$3.33
Max loss: $3.33
BE: $64.67
Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks above $74.
Traders seeking limited risk bearish exposure.
#2
Call Credit Spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $70.00/$74.00 call spread
Benefit from spot staying below $70.
Why this play: Collects premium while bearish, risk capped.
Credit: $1.37-$1.68
Max loss: $2.32
BE: $71.68
Mgmt: Close if spot exceeds $74.
Traders expecting slight bearish or range-bound.
#3
Long Put
Buy 2026-07-17 $64.00 put
Capture downside move with high reward potential.
Why this play: High convexity from aggressive put buying.
Debit: $2.97-$3.63
Max loss: $3.63
BE: $60.37
Mgmt: Set stop-loss at $74; monitor gamma risk.
Aggressive traders seeking high returns.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF spot breaks below 2d guardrail low $64.82 → Enter bear put spread: buy 2026-07-17 $68/$60 put spread
IFIF spot fails to break above $70 after bounce → Enter call credit spread: sell 2026-07-17 $70/$74 call spread
IFIF spot breaches support $60.45 with momentum → Buy 2026-07-17 $64 put (long put)
Exit Triggers
EXITIF spot closes above $74 → Exit all bearish positions

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias near-term. Support at $60.45, gamma flip at $60. Resistance $74 (max pain). Enter bear put spread on breakdown below $64.82; call credit spread on failure at $70; long put on support break. Exit all if spot exceeds $74.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 15, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.