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CVNA

Carvana Co.Close $63.35EOD only
Max Pain
$69.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.61
5.7% from close
Price Gap
+5.65
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
49
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.89
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CVNA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
CVNA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close May 19, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Earnings Verdict

Bearish flow and elevated IV skew near-term risk; next earnings 71 days out.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -1 spot 8.2% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: Aggressive put buying and negative net premium suggest downside bias; watch gamma flip at $60.
📉Massive put buying in Aug $58 highlights deep bearish sentiment.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Bearish
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$60.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 16,463 (5.3% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-29 (71 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-22 (3d): ±$3.61 (5.7%)
  • 2026-05-29 (10d): ±$5.62 (8.9%)
  • 2026-06-05 (17d): ±$3.45 (5.4%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-week IV ~70%, 2-week ~65%; steep put skew.

Crush estimate: No earnings crush; IV decays after weekly expirations.

Skew: Put skew elevated due to heavy bearish flow.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 80% (4/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Moves in line with implied; 80% beat rate suggests upside potential.

Directional bias: Near-term bearish per flow; long-term neutral.

Key Levels

1$60.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $59.73/$66.96; 1w $57.73/$68.97
3Max pain pins: $69 (2026-05-22); $72 (2026-05-29); $73 (2026-06-05)

Flow Highlights

Unusual block: 5,700 Aug $58 puts (9.8x OI).

Large bearish bet or hedge; significant downside conviction.

Strategies

Bearish Skew Capture
Sell 2026-05-29 $60.00 put / buy 2026-07-17 $60.00 put
Debit: $3.00-$3.66
Max loss: $3.66
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Roll if spot approaches $60; close before expiration.
Aligns with aggressive put buying; high front-week IV; gamma flip risk at $60.
Outperforms: Sell near-term put, buy deferred put to profit from IV contraction and skew.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Upside IV Play
Sell 2026-05-29 $67.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $70.00 call
Debit: $2.50-$3.05
Max loss: $3.05
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Exit if spot falls below $65; roll for further decay.
80% beat rate and cheap upside if rally; high call IV benefits premium received.
Outperforms: Sell near-term call, buy deferred OTM call; net credit with upside exposure.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Gamma flip at $60 may accelerate decline if spot breaks below.
!High IV in puts inflates premium; time decay risk for sellers.
!Negative net premium signals aggressive bearish positioning.

What to Watch

?Spot vs $60 gamma flip and put OI concentration.
?Max pain levels for weekly expirations.
?Further unusual put activity for trend confirmation.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on May 19, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.