Earnings Verdict
Mid-cycle with elevated IV; confidence 7/10 due to aligned flow and vol structure.
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -1 spot 13.1% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Most important: Flow shows significant call buying near $70-$73 and a far-dated $620 call, suggesting directional bullish bets.
📈Bullish flow with calls at $70/$73; heavy OI suggests upside targeting $80+.
⚠️Gamma flip at $60; if spot breaks below, put gamma may accelerate downside.
Regime Classification
Gamma flip: ~$60.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 19,862 (13.7% below spot)
Earnings Overview
Next earnings: 2026-07-29 (76 days)explicit
Expected moves:
- 2026-05-15 (1d): ±$2.04 (2.9%)
- 2026-05-22 (8d): ±$2.63 (3.8%)
- 2026-05-29 (15d): ±$7.07 (10.2%)
IV Setup
Term structure: Steep; 1d 2.9%, 8d 3.8%, 15d 10.2%.
Crush estimate: N/A; earnings 76 days out, no immediate crush.
Skew: Put OI concentrated at $40-$60; call wall at $80-$100.
Historical Context
Beat rate: 80% (4/5 quarters)
Avg move vs expected: High vol regime; expected moves elevated for near-term.
Directional bias: Historically bullish; beat rate 80%.
Key Levels
1$60.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $67.49/$71.56; 1w $66.90/$72.16
3Max pain pins: $80 (2026-05-15); $75 (2026-05-22); $76 (2026-05-29)
Flow Highlights
Unusual call volume on May22 $70 and $73 strikes (vol/OI 3.5x and 2.9x).
Aggressive bullish positioning near support.
LEAPS call on Sep18 $620 (vol/OI 2.5x).
Long-term bullish conviction.
Strategies
Risk Assessment
!Spot 13% below max pain; gamma flip at $60 could accelerate selloff.
!High IV suggests event risk premium built in.
What to Watch
?Gamma flip level $60; call OI wall $80-$100; put floor $40-$60.