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CVNA

Carvana Co.Close $70.04EOD only
Max Pain
$74.00
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.41
4.9% from close
Price Gap
+3.96
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
74
High premium
P/C OI
0.86
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 16, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CVNA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 16, 2026 close
CVNA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 17, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Bearish flow and high put volume but 80% beat rate creates uncertainty.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -1 spot 15.1% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: Heavy put buying on 6/18 $78 and $76 strikes signals downside hedging.
⚠️Bearish positioning vs high beat rate.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Bearish
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$60.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 16,981 (4.5% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-29 (42 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-18 (1d): ±$2.52 (4.0%)
  • 2026-06-26 (9d): ±$6.00 (9.5%)
  • 2026-07-02 (15d): ±$7.57 (12.1%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Steep contango: 1d/9d/15d moves 4%/9.5%/12.1%.

Crush estimate: Crush 50-70% typical.

Skew: Put skew extreme; 6/18 $84 put IV 393%.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 80% (4/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Beat rate 80% suggests frequent upside surprises.

Directional bias: Mixed: flow bearish, history bullish.

Key Levels

1$60.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $60.34/$65.38; 1w $56.87/$68.86
3Max pain pins: $74 (2026-06-18); $68 (2026-06-26); $67 (2026-07-02)

Flow Highlights

6/18 $78 put 13.6k vol (OI 6k), $76 put 9.2k vol.

Aggressive downside hedging.

2027 $120 call 2.6k vol, 8/21 $65 call 6.9k vol.

Long-dated bullish bets.

Strategies

Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-06-26 $67.00/$71.00 call spread
Debit: $0.76-$0.92
Max loss: $0.92
Max gain: $3.08
BE: $67.92
Trigger: Exit if spot breaks below $60; take profit near $71.
Aligns with historical 80% beat rate and near support; defined risk with liquidity pass.
Outperforms: Buys upside exposure via call spread, capitalizing on potential earnings beat.
Underperforms: Loss of support weakens upside continuation thesis.
Short Strangle
Sell 2026-07-24 $61.00 put + sell $67.00 call
Credit: $8.28-$10.12
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $10.12
BE: 50.88 / 77.12
Trigger: Monitor gamma flip at $60; roll or close if spot approaches strikes. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Open interest below 25.
Captures elevated premium from steep contango and high IV, but bearish flow and liquidity fail increase risk.
Outperforms: Sells out-of-the-money put and call to profit from IV crush and time decay.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Spot near support $60, below MP $74.
!Neg premium -$44M, P/C vol ratio 2.05.
!VIX 18.4, high near-dated IV.
!No catalyst until July earnings.

What to Watch

?6/18 max pain $74, gamma flip $60.
?Put activity on 6/18.
?Spot vs 2d EM $60.34-$65.38.
?Bearish flow reversal signs.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 17, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.