thetaOwl
HomeOptionsCVNAReports

CVNA

Carvana Co.Close $66.19EOD only
Max Pain
$67.00
Next expiry Jun 5, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.13
3.2% from close
Price Gap
+0.81
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
56
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.87
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 4, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CVNA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 4, 2026 close
CVNA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 5, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

CVNA reports in 54 days; high IV, 80% beat rate, but broad market selloff adds risk.

Confidence:
8.5 / 10
base 5; +1 GEX/flow weakly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.7% from MP; +0.5 VIX 22
Most important: Elevated IV and call walls at $80-$92 suggest upside speculation, but market turbulence could disrupt.
📊80% beat rate over 5 quarters, but sample small.
🔥Unusual 6/12 $67C call sweeps indicate bullish positioning.
⚠️QQQ -4.8% and VIX >21 suggest broader risk off.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
At
Gamma flip: ~$60.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 16,270 (9.8% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-29 (54 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-12 (7d): ±$2.67 (4.0%)
  • 2026-06-18 (13d): ±$7.22 (10.9%)
  • 2026-06-26 (21d): ±$9.03 (13.6%)

IV Setup

Term structure: 1w ±4%, 2w ±11%, 3w ±14%.

Crush estimate: Large crush expected post-earnings; IV ~70% to ~50%.

Skew: Calls elevated vs puts; call OI wall $80-$92.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 80% (4/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Avg move ~7% vs expected ~5%.

Directional bias: No clear bias; 4 beats, 1 miss.

Key Levels

1$60.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 1w $63.85/$69.18
3Max pain pins: $67 (2026-06-05); $69 (2026-06-12); $78 (2026-06-18)

Flow Highlights

6/12 $67C vol/OI 8.5, call sweeps

Aggressive bullish positioning before earnings.

6/5 $66.50 straddle high volume both sides

Possible pinning or hedging activity.

Strategies

Iron Condor
Sell 2026-06-18 $63.00/$62.00 put wing and $70.00/$71.50 call wing
Credit: $0.69-$0.85
Max loss: $0.65
Max gain: $0.85
BE: 62.15 / 70.85
Trigger: Exit at 50% max gain or if price breaks guardrails.
Best for high IV, no clear bias, defined risk, and support/resistance levels.
Outperforms: Sells put/call wings near guardrails to capture theta and IV contraction.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Call Calendar
Sell 2026-06-12 $70.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $70.00 call
Debit: $3.24-$3.96
Max loss: $3.96
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Monitor volatility; close if spot approaches $70 or IV flattens.
Exploits steep term structure with near-term IV richness.
Outperforms: Sells near-term call, buys later same strike to profit from time decay differential.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Broad market selloff (QQQ -4.8%) adds downside risk.
!High IV may exaggerate moves.
!Call OI walls $80-$92 could cap upside.

What to Watch

?Price near $67 max pain and EM guardrails $63.85/$69.18.
?Volume on $80-$92 call strikes.
?VIX and market recovery trajectory.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 5, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.