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CVNA

Carvana Co.Close $68.34EOD only
Max Pain
$61.00
Next expiry Aug 7, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.79
2.6% from close
Price Gap
-7.34
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
48
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.88
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Aug 6, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CVNA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Aug 6, 2026 close
CVNA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 23, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 23, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for June 25, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Earnings 36d out; IV elevated; historical beat rate 80%; moderate confidence.

Confidence:
7 / 10
base 5; +1 GEX/flow weakly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 3.2% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19
Most important: IV term structure steepens with time; put OI concentration supports floor near $60.
🐂High beat rate supports bullish bias
⚠️Put OI ratio >1 signals hedging pressure

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$60.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 17,247 (7.5% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-29 (36 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-26 (3d): ±$3.88 (6.0%)
  • 2026-07-02 (9d): ±$6.02 (9.3%)
  • 2026-07-10 (17d): ±$7.93 (12.2%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Upward sloping: 3d 6%, 9d 9.3%, 17d 12.2%

Crush estimate: Expect 50-70% IV drop post-earnings

Skew: Put OI heavy at $55-60; call OI wall $70-92; slight bearish skew

Historical Context

Beat rate: 80% (4/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Beat rate 80% suggests upside

Directional bias: Positive bias historically

Key Levels

1$60.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $60.95/$68.72; 1w $58.81/$70.86
3Max pain pins: $67 (2026-06-26); $66 (2026-07-02); $68 (2026-07-10)

Flow Highlights

Large call buy $70 7/2 (vol/OI 4.3)

Bullish short-term bet

Put buy $55 7/10 (vol/OI 4.2)

Hedging or bearish speculation

Strategies

Call Diagonal Spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $68.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $65.00 call
Debit: $4.59-$5.61
Max loss: $5.61
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Close near $60; roll if IV collapses early. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Volume below 5.
Upward sloping term structure + positive bias; reduces cost vs outright call; defined risk with $60 invalidation.
Outperforms: Sell front-month $68 call, buy later-month $65 call to exploit term structure and directional tilt.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Call Calendar Spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $68.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $68.00 call
Debit: $3.22-$3.93
Max loss: $3.93
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Exit if IV flattens; adjust strikes on trend. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Volume below 5.
Captures term structure premium with neutral delta; less directional risk than diagonal.
Outperforms: Sell near-term $68 call, buy same strike later-term call; profits from time decay and vol expansion.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Iron Condor
Sell 2026-07-31 $60.00/$59.00 put wing and $68.00/$69.00 call wing
Credit: $0.79-$0.96
Max loss: $0.04
Max gain: $0.96
BE: 59.04 / 68.96
Trigger: Let expire if within wings; close at 50% max profit. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Volume below 5.; long_put: Volume below 5.; short_call: Open interest below 25.; long_call: Open interest below 25.
Defined risk; captures high IV premium; max pain near $67 supports range-bound move.
Outperforms: Sell OTM put and call wings to profit from IV crush and post-earnings range.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Short strangle
Sell 2026-07-17 $58.00 put + sell $68.00 call
Credit: $4.67-$5.70
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $5.70
BE: 52.30 / 73.70
IV elevated pre-earnings; historical move moderate; defined risk of undefined tails accepted for high premium.
Outperforms: Sell OTM call and put before earnings to capture elevated IV premium; high probability with stock near max pain $67.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Gamma pinning near $67 max pain may cap moves
!VIX 19 indicates elevated vol regime

What to Watch

?Spot reaction around $67 this week
?IV expansion/contraction for entry timing
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 23, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.