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CVNA

Carvana Co.Close $64.83EOD only
Max Pain
$67.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.88
6.0% from close
Price Gap
+2.17
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
50
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.84
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.5/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: Jun 23, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CVNA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 23, 2026 close
CVNA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 24, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

CVNA pre-earnings: 9/10 confidence, gamma pinning $67, aggressive call buying $85, bearish puts $56, 80% beat rate.

Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.4% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19
Most important: Gamma pinning near $67 with put OI concentration; 4.9% 2-day expected move suggests breakout risk.
📍Max pain pins near $67; put floor at $60.
🔥Aggressive $85 calls 10x vol/OI on Jul 10.
🛡️Large put buys at $66.50 and $56.
⚠️80% beat rate but only 5 quarters.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$60.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 17,258 (11.6% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-29 (35 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-26 (2d): ±$3.35 (4.9%)
  • 2026-07-02 (8d): ±$5.92 (8.7%)
  • 2026-07-10 (16d): ±$8.07 (11.9%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-end elevated, 2d IV ~65%, 8d ~69%, 16d ~74%; contango.

Crush estimate: Post-earnings IV crush expected 30-50% from current levels.

Skew: Positive skew: call OI walls $80-$100, put floor $40-$60.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 80% (4/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: 80% beat rate implies upside, but exact move vs expected unreported.

Directional bias: Bullish

Key Levels

1$60.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $64.57/$71.26; 1w $61.99/$73.83
3Max pain pins: $67 (2026-06-26); $66 (2026-07-02); $68 (2026-07-10)

Flow Highlights

Unusual $85 Call Jul 10: vol 1058 vs OI 105 (10.1x).

Aggressive bullish bet targeting $85 within 16 days.

Unusual $66.50 Put Jun 26: vol 814 vs OI 153 (5.3x).

Hedging/bearish bet at gamma pinning level.

Unusual $56 Put Jul 31: vol 325 vs OI 163 (2.0x).

Downside protection or bearish view on longer time frame.

Strategies

Bullish strangle
Buy 2026-07-31 $62.00 put + buy $80.00 call
Debit: $6.22-$7.61
Max loss: $7.61
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 54.39 / 87.61
Trigger: Monitor gamma flip; exit if IV collapses or spot nears strike.
Best cost-liquidity balance with high confidence upside.
Outperforms: Out-of-the-money puts and calls to profit from large move.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.
Straddle
Buy 2026-07-31 $70.00 put + buy $70.00 call
Debit: $12.33-$15.07
Max loss: $15.07
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 54.93 / 85.07
Trigger: Manage vega risk; consider early exit if IV spikes. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.; long_put: Volume below 5.
Captures large move but premium high.
Outperforms: At-the-money long straddle to profit from any large move.
Underperforms: Under-realized move and IV crush hurt long-vol thesis.
Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-31 $65.00/$63.00 put wing and $70.00/$72.00 call wing
Credit: $1.37-$1.68
Max loss: $0.32
Max gain: $1.68
BE: 63.32 / 71.68
Trigger: Avoid if earnings miss; adjust wings if gamma flips. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.; short_call: Open interest below 25.
Within expected move with contango premium, but liquidity risk.
Outperforms: Short out-of-the-money put and call spreads to benefit from time decay.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Earnings miss: 20% historical chance, would break gamma pin and accelerate downside.
!IV crush: significant premium erosion post-earnings.
!Gamma flip: if spot moves past $66.50 or $70, gamma flips negative.

What to Watch

?$67 max pain and put OI concentration.
?$70 resistance and call OI wall.
?Unusual $85 call activity on Jul 10.
?Earnings date July 29 for any guidance.
?VIX at 18.6: moderate market stress.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 24, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.