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CVNA

Carvana Co.Close $68.90EOD only
Max Pain
$74.00
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$4.08
5.9% from close
Price Gap
+5.10
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
70
High premium
P/C OI
0.86
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
5.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 15, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CVNA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 15, 2026 close
CVNA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 16, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

CVNA earnings setup with 80% beat rate, 2 days out, implied moves 4.9-11.4%. Spot below max pain $74, put activity elevated.

Confidence:
7 / 10
base 5; +1 GEX/flow weakly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 5.4% from MP; +1 VIX 16
Most important: High IV crush potential and put flow concentration near $70 indicate cautious positioning.
📈Bullish call flow in 2027 $120 suggests long-term optimism
⚠️High put volume near $70 indicates hedging or bearish bets
💡Spot trading below max pain; pinning potential at $74

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$60.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 17,112 (14.3% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-29 (43 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-18 (2d): ±$3.41 (4.9%)
  • 2026-06-26 (10d): ±$6.55 (9.4%)
  • 2026-07-02 (16d): ±$7.97 (11.4%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Upward sloping: 2d 4.9% to 16d 11.4%

Crush estimate: Expected ~50%+ IV crush post-event

Skew: Puts elevated; near-term skew steep

Historical Context

Beat rate: 80% (4/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Not available, but 80% beat rate suggests favorable moves

Directional bias: Slightly bullish on earnings beats but no strong trend

Key Levels

1$60.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $66.64/$73.45; 1w $63.49/$76.59
3Max pain pins: $74 (2026-06-18); $68 (2026-06-26); $67 (2026-07-02)

Flow Highlights

Unusual $120 call (2.6x vol/OI) and $68/$71 puts (1.9x, 1.7x) ahead of earnings

Speculative bullish calls and hedging puts suggest uncertainty

Strategies

Earnings Range Iron Condor
Sell 2026-06-26 $66.50/$64.00 put wing and $75.00/$77.00 call wing
Credit: $1.12-$1.37
Max loss: $1.13
Max gain: $1.37
BE: 65.13 / 76.37
Trigger: Close at 50% max gain or before earnings; adjust if break out above $75 or below $66. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Volume below 5.; long_put: Volume below 5.
Captures IV crush and 80% beat rate range; high probability if stock stays within $66-$75.
Outperforms: Sells OTM put and call wings to profit from implied volatility decline and range-bound move.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Call Calendar Spread
Sell 2026-06-26 $75.00 call / buy 2026-07-02 $76.00 call
Debit: $0.38-$0.47
Max loss: $0.47
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Exit if stock approaches $75 short strike; roll if needed.
Benefits from time decay in front-month IV; liquid but less direct IV crush play.
Outperforms: Sells near-term call, buys later call to profit from theta decay while maintaining upside potential.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.

Risk Assessment

!IV crush post-event could be large
!Spot below max pain $74; risk of gamma squeeze if rally above
!High put OI at $68-$71 could act as support or resistance

What to Watch

?Watch $74 resistance and $70 support
?Earnings on 7/29; IV expansion expected
?Unusual flow in deep OTM calls
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 16, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.