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CVNA

Carvana Co.Close $63.35EOD only
Max Pain
$69.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.61
5.7% from close
Price Gap
+5.65
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
49
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.89
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CVNA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
CVNA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from March 31, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 19, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Earnings expected around 5/6 (implied by IV kink). IV is extremely elevated (80%+), making IV crush plays highly attractive. Historical data shows a strong tendency to beat EPS estimates and gap up post-earnings, but the elevated expected move (9.2% for 10d) suggests high volatility is priced in. The optimal strategy is selling premium via an iron condor, capitalizing on likely IV crush and the stock's tendency to under-move its elevated implied volatility.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +1 for clear IV term structure kink; +0.5 for strong historical beat rate; -0 for data quality
Most important: IV term structure shows a massive kink at 5/1 (85.8%) and 5/8 (89.5%), strongly implying earnings between 5/1 and 5/8, likely 5/6 AMC. This is the primary earnings date for analysis.
⚠️Earnings date is inferred from IV term structure kink. Confirm via company IR as date approaches.
📈Historical EPS beat rate is strong (75%), with large positive surprises. Directional bias is up on beats.
💥IV is in the 80-90% range for May. Post-earnings crush will be violent. Favor premium selling.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High (IV 80%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$16.7M — mean-reverting)
Flow Regime
Bullish (net prem +$15.9M, P/C 0.52)
Spot vs MP
Above max pain by 4.8% (spot $314.38 vs MP $300)
Gamma flip: ~$65.00 — Gamma flip is far below at ~$65 due to massive $65 put OI wall. Dealers are short gamma above $65, amplifying moves in the current trading range.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-05-06 (36 days)inferred_from_iv_kink

Expected moves:

  • 5/01 (31d): ±$62.23 (19.8%)
  • 5/08 (38d): ±$32.65 (10.4%)
  • 5/15 (45d): ±$72.28 (23.0%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Extreme kink at May expirations. IV jumps from 71.7% (4/24) to 85.8% (5/1) and 89.5% (5/8), then drops to 83.7% (5/15). This confirms earnings are priced between 5/1 and 5/8.

Crush estimate: ~15-20 vol pts post-earnings, back to ~70% range.

Skew: Flow is net bullish (P/C 0.52), but unusual activity shows heavy put volume in the 4/2 expiry, suggesting near-term hedging or earnings-week positioning.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 75% (3/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Cannot compute precise % move from provided data, but EPS surprises are consistently large and positive (3 of last 4 beats, with one significant miss).

Directional bias: Bullish on beats. The large beat on 12/31/25 (+$2.59) likely resulted in a significant gap up.

Key Levels

1$300 (Max Pain, major support)
2$290 (Next MP, OI Call wall)
3$330 (Major Call OI wall)
4$350 (Call OI wall)
5EM 5/08: $282.5 - $347.5

Flow Highlights

Massive $290C premium flow: +$29.5M net call premium.

Institutional bullish bet or covered call writing. This strike aligns with near-term max pain and is a key level.

Unusual 4/2 expiry activity: High volume in $315P, $282.5P, $337.5C.

Traders positioning for a potential pre-earnings move or gamma squeeze around the 4/2 expiry, with spot near $314.38.

Strategies

May Post-Earnings Iron Condor
Sell $282.5/$277.5P x $347.5/$352.5C 5/08
Credit: $3.50-$4.50
Max loss: $1.50
Max gain: $3.50
BE: 279.0 / 351.0
Trigger: Enter 5-7 days before inferred earnings date (late April).
Capitalizes on extreme IV and likely crush. Strikes placed just outside the 5/08 expected move ($282.5-$347.5) for a buffer. Historical beats support a move higher, but selling both sides captures premium from overpriced volatility.
Outperforms: Stock stays within the 10.4% expected move bounds post-earnings and IV crushes from ~90% to ~70%.
Underperforms: Stock gaps beyond short strikes by more than the credit received.
Long Straddle (Gamma Play into Earnings)
Buy $315 straddle 5/01
Max loss: Cost of straddle
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: Breakevens = $315 ± cost
Trigger: Enter 1-2 weeks before earnings if IV hasn't spiked further.
A pure volatility bet. The 5/01 expiry has the highest ATM IV (85.8%) and captures the earnings event. High risk due to extreme IV and crush, but payoff is large if the move is catastrophic.
Outperforms: Actual move exceeds the massive 19.8% implied move (beyond $252-$376).
Underperforms: Stock pins, IV crushes heavily from 85.8%, or move is contained.
Bull Call Spread (Directional, Lower Cost)
Buy $320C / Sell $350C 6/18
Max loss: Cost of spread
Max gain: $30.00
BE: $320 + cost
Trigger: Enter on any pullback to $300-$305 support before earnings.
Leverages historical beat bias and bullish flow (P/C 0.52) with defined risk. Uses a farther-dated expiry (6/18) to mitigate post-earnings IV crush on the long leg, targeting a move to the major $350 call OI resistance.
Outperforms: Stock gaps up post-earnings and continues trending toward the $350 OI wall.
Underperforms: Stock fails to rally post-earnings or sells off.

Risk Assessment

!Gap Risk: Extreme. The 5/08 EM is ±10.4%, but the 5/01 EM is ±19.8%. A guidance-related move could easily breach short condor wings.
!IV Crush: Severe. IV ~90% will collapse post-event. Long premium strategies need a massive move to overcome crush.
!Liquidity: Good (377k OI, 64k volume). Strikes are granular ($2.5/$5 increments).
!Sizing: Size small. The high IV and wide expected moves mean position sizing is critical to manage tail risk.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory in May expirations as earnings approach.
?Spot price action relative to $300 max pain and the $290/$330 OI walls.
?Any unusual flow in May puts for signs of large hedging.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.