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CVNA

Carvana Co.Close $69.90EOD only
Max Pain
$80.50
Next expiry May 15, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.18
4.6% from close
Price Gap
+10.60
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
64
High premium
P/C OI
0.97
Balanced positioning
Consensus
6.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: May 13, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CVNA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 13, 2026 close
CVNA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close May 13, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

CVNA 77 days from earnings; near-term flow bearish with put dominance; IV inverted.

Confidence:
7 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -1 spot 13.2% from MP; +1 VIX 18
Most important: Near-term gamma dynamics and put OI wall at $60 key for price action.
🐻Heavy put accumulation near $70 with 12.7x vol/OI ratio
🎲Far OTM call buys at $620 (9/18) - lottery tickets
📌Spot at $69.35 below max pain $80; pinning risk

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$60.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 20,036 (14.2% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-29 (77 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-15 (2d): ±$3.19 (4.6%)
  • 2026-05-22 (9d): ±$6.30 (9.0%)
  • 2026-05-29 (16d): ±$7.83 (11.2%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-end elevated; 2d IV ~52%, 16d ~44% annualized.

Crush estimate: N/A - earnings 77 days out.

Skew: Put skew elevated; put/call vol ratio 1.08; OI concentrated below spot.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 80% (4/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Historical moves not provided; beat rate 80%.

Directional bias: Slightly bullish historically.

Key Levels

1$60.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $66.72/$73.09; 1w $63.60/$76.20
3Max pain pins: $80 (2026-05-15); $83 (2026-05-22); $79 (2026-05-29)

Flow Highlights

Unusual put volume on 5/29 $70 strike, vol/oi 12.7.

Large directional bet on downside or hedging.

Call buying at $620 strike 9/18 expiry.

Speculative long-shot call activity.

Strategies

Range-bound IV play
Sell 2026-05-22 $66.00/$65.00 put wing and $72.00/$74.50 call wing
Credit: $1.04-$1.27
Max loss: $1.23
Max gain: $1.27
BE: 64.73 / 73.27
Trigger: Monitor spot near $60 or $74.5; close at 50% max gain.
Defined risk limits tail exposure; front-end IV higher than back-end, premium harvest with clear support/resistance.
Outperforms: Captures elevated near-term IV via short wings bounded by $60 put support and $74.5 call resistance.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
High theta short vol
Sell 2026-05-22 $66.00 put + sell $72.00 call
Credit: $3.28-$4.01
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $4.01
BE: 61.99 / 76.01
Trigger: Adjust deltas if spot approaches short strikes; close before earnings.
Higher premium but unlimited downside; viable due to wide breakevens but ranks lower on risk.
Outperforms: Sells OTM put and call to collect elevated premium with high theta decay.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Gamma flip near $60 (put OI concentration)
!Spot below max pain ($80) creates pinning risk
!Net put premium -$6.5M suggests bearish flow

What to Watch

?2d and weekly expirations (5/15, 5/22)
?Call wall at $80-$100 resistance
?Gamma positioning around $60
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on May 13, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.