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CVNA

Carvana Co.Close $63.35EOD only
Max Pain
$69.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.61
5.7% from close
Price Gap
+5.65
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
49
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.89
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CVNA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
CVNA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close May 15, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from May 15, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 19, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

CVNA earnings 75 days out; historical beat rate 80% supports bullish bias, but current IV reflects near-term uncertainty with downside tail risk via OTM puts.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -1 spot 16.0% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: High historical beat rate but spot below max pain; watch $60 support and $75 resistance.
📈Bullish signal: 7.4k vol in $75 Call (7.7x OI) despite earnings far off.
🐻Bearish tail: $32 Put with 145% IV shows downside hedging
⚠️80% beat rate historically positive but spot below max pain $80.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$60.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 19,849 (10.7% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-29 (75 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-22 (7d): ±$4.52 (6.7%)
  • 2026-05-29 (14d): ±$6.56 (9.8%)
  • 2026-06-05 (21d): ±$7.09 (10.5%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Upward sloping: 7d ±6.7%, 14d ±9.8%, 21d ±10.5% expected moves.

Crush estimate: Not applicable; next earnings in 75 days.

Skew: Elevated skew; deep OTM put IV up to 145%, call OI wall at $80-$100 cap upside.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 80% (4/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Not provided.

Directional bias: 80% beat rate implies bullish historical bias.

Key Levels

1$60.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 1w $62.65/$71.69
3Max pain pins: $80 (2026-05-15); $73 (2026-05-22); $76 (2026-05-29)

Flow Highlights

Unusual $75 Call bought 7.4k vol vs 966 OI (7.7x), indicating bullish bet.

Strong call buying suggests upside speculation despite earnings far out.

Deep OTM $32 Put with 5.3x vol/oi and 145% IV reflects tail hedge demand.

Market pricing extreme downside risk; protective puts active.

Strategies

Risk Assessment

!Spot below max pain ($80) could pressure near-term price toward $60 support.
!High IV on OTM puts suggests tail risk premium expansion.
!Earnings 75 days away; time decay and macro factors dominant.

What to Watch

?$60 support (put OI concentration) and $73-75 resistance (call wall).
?Weekly max pain pinning: $80 (5/15), $73 (5/22).
?Unusual flow continuation in $75 calls and deep OTM puts.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on May 15, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.