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CVNA

Carvana Co.Close $66.56EOD only
Max Pain
$66.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$5.53
8.3% from close
Price Gap
-0.56
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.84
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CVNA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 18, 2026 close
CVNA Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 18, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Mixed but range-bound bullish bias toward $70 pin on positive gamma/delta and low VIX; support at $62.71.

Confidence:
8.5 / 10
Base 8.5 from GEX/flow alignment and VIX 16; offset by spot distance and mixed flow.
Supports: Positive gamma/delta, low VIX, pin at $70
Conflicts: Spot below MP, mixed flow, high IV
📌Gamma pin at $70, spot $66.7 likely drifts up.
⚠️High IV may compress; vol risk.
⚖️Mixed flow, no strong directional edge.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High IV; VIX 16.4 suggests potential contraction.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Gamma pin at $70 (+830K GEX); flip near $60.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed net premium.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot below $70 MP; mean-reversion bias up.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Gamma pin and positive delta support range-bound drift to MP.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week
$61.03$72.08
Resistance at 70 caps upside, support at 62.71.
Next 2 weeks
$62.71$70.41
Range 62.71-70.41, gamma pin at 70 favors reversion.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $70 (2026-06-18); $66 (2026-06-26); $66 (2026-07-02)
EM guardrails: 1w $61.03/$72.08
Support: $62.71 · $60.00
Resistance: $70.00 · $70.41
Gamma flip: ~$60.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 17,284 (9.9% below spot)
Structural: MP pins: $70 (6/18), $66 (6/26,7/2). Guardrails: $61/$72. Support: $62.71, $60 (gamma flip). Resistance: $70, $70.41.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+830K

DEX: +45.0M shares

Gamma flip: ~$60 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 17,284 (9.9% below spot))

NTM gamma: NTM GEX +$830K (positive), DEX +45M shares bullish. Gamma flip at $60 from put OI concentration.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Rich vs VIX 16.4; premium pricing.

Term structure: Flat; no event skew.

Skew: Put skew elevated; sell puts at $60 flip zone.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium +$3.72M; put vol slight edge but OI call-heavy; mixed flow with bullish weekly call buying.

Directional prints: 65.2 call 69 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 10.6x OI; likely bought, speculating on further upside; preferred read bullish. 63.9 call 72 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 5.7x OI; bought, similar bullish bet; preferred read bullish. 50 call 620 OTM 2026-09-18 — Extreme OTM, vol 2.5x OI; likely bought as lottery; preferred read bullish.

Unusual: 146.1 put 29 OTM 2026-07-17 — Vol/OI 28.8x; massive bearish bet far OTM; likely bought as hedge or speculation. 92.6 put 67.5 ITM 2026-06-18 — 0DTE put with very high IV; vol/OI 1.9; likely sold or closing; possible pinning hedge.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at $60
!Vol crush
!Mixed flow turns bearish
!Resistance at $70 holds

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadModerate
Buy 2026-08-21 $68.00/$88.00 call spread
Why now: Range-bound bias with support at $62.71, resistance at $70. Use 64-DTE for earnings coverage.
Capped upside if stock falls short of $70.
Put credit spreadModerate-Weak
Sell 2026-08-21 $56.00/$50.00 put spread
Why now: Support at $62.71, low probability of breach. Sell 63p/buy 62p in 64-DTE.
Sharp sell-off below $62 leads to max loss. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Volume below 5.
Call calendarModerate-Weak
Sell 2026-07-02 $72.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $72.00 call
Why now: High IV in front month, term structure favors calendar. Upside bias post-earnings.
Sharp vol expansion hurts short leg; stock must stay below short strike at expiry.

Top Plays

#1
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-08-21 $68.00/$88.00 call spread
Buy 68/88 call spread for earnings upside with limited risk.
Why this play: Best aligns with bullish bias and support at $62.71, high liquidity, covers earnings.
Debit: $5.21-$6.37
Max loss: $6.37
BE: $74.37
Mgmt: Close at 50% gain or before earnings.
Bullish traders targeting $70 pin.
#2
Call Calendar
Sell 2026-07-02 $72.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $72.00 call
Sell front-month call, buy back-month call.
Why this play: Exploits IV term structure; upside bias post-earnings; good liquidity.
Debit: $4.67-$5.70
Max loss: $5.70
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Monitor IV, close if front-month ITM.
Traders expecting IV crush and gradual upside.
#3
Put Credit Spread
Sell 2026-08-21 $56.00/$50.00 put spread
Sell put spread below support to collect premium.
Why this play: Low probability of support breach but liquidity is poor, so lower rank.
Credit: $1.45-$1.78
Max loss: $4.22
BE: $54.22
Mgmt: Close if price nears short strike. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Volume below 5.
Neutral-bullish traders accepting low liquidity.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIf CVNA price holds above $62.71 support and stabilizes in the $63-65 range → Initiate bull call spread: buy 2026-08-21 $68/$88 call spread (stop loss $62.71).
Exit Triggers
EXITIf CVNA price breaks below $62.71 (invalidation level) → Close all positions: bull call spread, put credit spread, and call calendar.
EXITIf CVNA price reaches $70 resistance with signs of rejection → Take profit on bull call spread; hold calendar if IV elevated.

Tactical Summary

Range-bound bullish bias targeting $70 pin. Key support $62.71, resistance $70 (gamma flip $60). Top play: bull call spread on support hold. Invalidation at $62.71. Earnings Jul 29 (41 days). Manage calendar exposure if front-month ITM.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 18, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.