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CVNA

Carvana Co.Close $70.04EOD only
Max Pain
$74.00
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.41
4.9% from close
Price Gap
+3.96
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
74
High premium
P/C OI
0.86
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 16, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CVNA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 16, 2026 close
CVNA Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 17, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish bias with downside momentum driven by bearish flow, high vol, and dealer short gamma. Spot 15% below max pain, trending gamma amplifies moves. Support at $60 (gamma flip) could halt, but break opens $57.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
Base 5, +2 GEX/flow aligned, -1 spot far from MP, +0.5 VIX 18. Net 6.5.
Supports: Bearish flow, high vol, trending gamma, dealer short gamma.
Conflicts: Strong support at $60, gamma flip could reverse, dealer long DEX cushions.
📉Bearish flow: net put premium suggests hedging
⚠️Spot 15% below max pain, market skewed lower
🔴High vol: IV elevated, expected large moves
⛔Dealer short gamma: amplifies directional moves

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High vol regime: IV elevated relative to typical range, reflecting large expected moves.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Trending gamma: dealers positioned short gamma, increasing spot sensitivity and amplifying moves.
Flow Regime
Bearish
Bearish flow: net put premium dominates, indicating downside hedging interest.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot below max pain by ~15%, signaling bearish sentiment and potential magnetic pull lower.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain declines over next expiries, dealer short gamma persists, bearish flow sustains downside pressure.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$60.34$65.38
Test low 60.34, break opens to 57
Next 1 week
$56.87$68.86
Break of 60 targets 56.87
Next 2 weeks
$55.29$70.44
Range 55.29-70.44, bias toward low end

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $74 (2026-06-18); $68 (2026-06-26); $67 (2026-07-02)
EM guardrails: 2d $60.34/$65.38; 1w $56.87/$68.86
Support: $60.00 · $55.29
Resistance: $70.44
Gamma flip: ~$60.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 16,981 (4.5% below spot)
Structural: EM guardrails: 2d $60.34/$65.38, 1w $56.87/$68.86. Support $60 (gamma flip), $55.29. Resistance $70.44.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-15.4M

DEX: +46.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$60 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 16,981 (4.5% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealer short gamma ($-15.4M), gamma flip ~$60 (4.5% below spot). DEX long +46.7M shares provides downside buffer.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV elevated vs VIX (18.44), option premium rich; high vol regime suggests continued elevated IV.

Term structure: Likely contango with event kinks around weekly expiries; near-term options more expensive.

Skew: Bearish put skew; potential opportunity to sell puts at $60 support given dealer hedging.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Bearish net premium -$44.2M, put/call vol ratio 2.05, aggressive put buying dominates.

Directional prints: 114.1 put 78 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 2.3x, 13.6k vol. Large put buying, bearish view near-term. 154.7 put 76 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 3.9x, 9.2k vol. Aggressive bearish speculation, likely active. 201.6 put 82 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 4.4x, 3.1k vol. High IV, strong bearish bets.

Unusual: 81.8 call 65 OTM 2026-08-21 — Vol/OI 23.1x, 6.9k vol. Massive call volume relative to OI, bullish outlier amid bearish flow. 393 put 84 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 4.4x, IV 393% extreme. Panic put buying, very short-term bearish. 114.1 put 78 ITM 2026-06-18 — Highest put vol 13.6k. Dominant bearish flow, heightened downside conviction.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at $60 may reverse momentum
!Strong support from dealer long DEX cushions downside
!Bearish flow could exhaust, triggering short squeeze
!High vol regime may decay if spot stabilizes

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-08-21 $64.00/$58.00 put spread
Why now: IV elevated, large put buying, downside flow; spread reduces cost and risk.
Gamma flip at $60 could halt decline; spread limits upside but caps profit.
Call credit spreadModerate
Sell 2026-08-21 $70.00/$76.00 call spread
Why now: High IV supports premium collection; bearish flow suggests limited upside.
Sharp rally above short strike could cause loss; tail risk from gamma squeeze.
Long putModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-08-21 $64.00 put
Why now: Aggressive put buying, high IV, and bearish flow; long put captures momentum.
Time decay if move stalls; support at $60 may cap downside.

Top Plays

#1
Bear Put Spread
Buy 2026-08-21 $64.00/$58.00 put spread
Buy $64/$58 put spread to profit from downside with defined risk.
Why this play: Cost-effective, follows heavy put flow, limited risk.
Debit: $2.68-$3.27
Max loss: $3.27
BE: $60.73
Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks above $70.44 or near expiration if profit target hit.
Traders seeking controlled bearish exposure.
#2
Long Put
Buy 2026-08-21 $64.00 put
Buy $64 put for leveraged bearish play.
Why this play: Captures downside momentum, high IV favors buyers.
Debit: $7.94-$9.71
Max loss: $9.71
BE: $54.29
Mgmt: Set stop at $70.44; consider taking partial profits if OTM decay accelerates.
Aggressive traders expecting sharp move lower.
#3
Call Credit Spread
Sell 2026-08-21 $70.00/$76.00 call spread
Sell $70/$76 call spread to collect premium on limited upside view.
Why this play: Income strategy if rally fails, but upside risk if bullish reversal.
Credit: $1.57-$1.93
Max loss: $4.07
BE: $71.93
Mgmt: Buy back if spot nears $70 call; monitor for short squeeze risk.
Income-focused traders with neutral-to-bearish outlook.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF spot breaks below $60 (gamma flip) with bearish flow confirmation → THEN initiate bear put spread: buy $64/$58 put spread for max gain $2.73
IFIF spot drops below $60 and downside momentum persists → THEN buy $64 put for leveraged bearish play, stop at $70.44
Adjustment Triggers
ADJIF spot approaches $70 resistance → THEN buy back $70/$76 call spread to cap risk
Exit Triggers
EXITIF spot rallies above $70.44 resistance → THEN exit bear put spread and long put positions to limit losses

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias with downside momentum; support at $60 (gamma flip) critical. Key levels: support $60, $55.29; resistance $70.44. Top play: bear put spread $64/$58. Use entry triggers on break below $60; exit above $70.44. Monitor gamma flip for potential reversal.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 17, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.