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CVNA

Carvana Co.Close $68.28EOD only

Max Pain

$65.00

Next expiry May 29, 2026

Expected Move

±$4.69

6.9% from close

Price Gap

-3.28

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.86

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Bearish tilt

Published snapshot: May 22, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CVNA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 22, 2026 close

CVNA Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 26, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias supported by flow/gamma, but spot above MP introduces reversal risk.

Confidence:

8 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow; +1 gamma; -1 spot above MP; +1 VIX 17.

Supports: Bullish flow, positive gamma.
Conflicts: Spot above MP, gamma flip at $60.

📈Bullish flow and gamma support upside.

⚠️Spot above MP; reversal risk.

🛡️Gamma flip at $60 provides cushion.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

Elevated IV due to recent price expansion and event risk.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Positive gamma $17.9M, pinning near $66 max pain; flip at $60.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish net flow, call-heavy.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot ~$70, 6.3% above $66 MP.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Event-driven around 5/29 expiry with high vol and bullish flow.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$66.20$74.11

Gamma pin near $66, upside to $74 resistance.

Next 1 week

$63.20$77.10

Event flow and gamma support, but spot above MP.

Next 2 weeks

$61.10$79.20

Breakout potential but above-MP risk persists.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $66 (2026-05-29); $70 (2026-06-05); $68 (2026-06-12)

EM guardrails: 2d $66.20/$74.11; 1w $63.20/$77.10

Support: $70.00 · $66.00 · $61.10

Resistance: $79.20

Gamma flip: ~$60.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 16,121 (14.5% below spot)

Structural: Support $70/$66/$61.1; resistance $74.1/$79.2; gamma flip $60.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+17.9M

DEX: +42.8M shares

Gamma flip: ~$60 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 16,121 (14.5% below spot))

NTM gamma: Net gamma +$17.9M, delta +42.8M shares, flip at $60.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV elevated vs VIX 17, event premium.

Term structure: Contango, front-month elevated for 5/29.

Skew: Put skew high; sells at $60 flip.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net call premium $4.56M, put/call vol ratio 0.78, bullish flow.

Directional prints: 72.2 call 95 OTM 2026-08-21 — Vol/OI 14.1; aggressive call buying, likely bought, bullish speculation. 71.2 call 73 OTM 2026-06-05 — Vol/OI 4.3; active call accumulation, directional bullish.

Unusual: 70.5 call 90 OTM 2026-09-18 — Vol/OI 2.5; moderate call volume above ask, unusual size. 73.4 put 63.5 OTM 2026-05-29 — Vol/OI 2.2; small put buying, defensive hedge against downside. 69 call 72 OTM 2026-07-17 — Vol/OI 3.2; consistent call buying, bullish sentiment.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot reversal from above MP

!Gamma flip at $60

!IV compression post-expiry

!Market weakness

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-08-21 $72.00/$86.00 call spread Why now: Flow shows strong call buying; spread limits downside while capturing upside.	Max loss is net debit; stock may reverse from above MP.
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-08-21 $62.00/$50.00 put spread Why now: High put IV and OI at 70 put provide premium; stock above MP suggests support.	If stock drops below short strike, max loss is width minus credit.
Bullish risk reversal	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-08-21 $76.00 call / sell 2026-08-21 $58.00 put Why now: Call flow dominates; risk reversal captures upside while reducing cost.	Downside risk if stock drops below put strike; margin requirement.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-08-21 $72.00/$86.00 call spread

Buy 72/86 call spread to capture upside while limiting loss.

Why this play: Strong call flow with defined risk below MP; best risk/reward.

Debit: $4.37-$5.34

Max loss: $5.34

BE: $77.34

Mgmt: Exit if stock closes below 70 or near expiration for max gain.

Speculative bullish with defined risk tolerance.

Bullish Risk Reversal

Buy 2026-08-21 $76.00 call / sell 2026-08-21 $58.00 put

Buy 76 call, sell 58 put to reduce cost while expressing bullish view.

Why this play: Cost-efficient upside; unlimited gain potential with capped loss.

Debit: $2.95-$3.60

Max loss: $58.00

BE: $58.00

Mgmt: Monitor delta; roll if stock approaches 58 put strike.

Aggressive bullish traders willing to accept assignment risk.

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-08-21 $62.00/$50.00 put spread

Sell 62/50 put spread to profit from bullish bias or sideways move.

Why this play: Premium collection supported by flow and stock above MP.

Credit: $3.19-$3.90

Max loss: $8.10

BE: $58.10

Mgmt: Close at 50% max profit or if stock drops below 62.

Income-focused traders with neutral-to-bullish outlook.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFCVNA holds above $70 support and trades above $72 intraday → Enter 72/86 bull call spread at $4.37-$5.34

IFCVNA stays above $70 and IV decline stabilizes → Sell 62/50 put credit spread at $3.19-$3.90

Exit Triggers

EXITCVNA closes below $70 or breaks gamma flip $60 → Close all bullish positions; go flat or buy puts

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias with risk above MP. Favor defined-risk bull call or put credit spread. Exit if spot falls below $70. Watch $60 gamma flip for tail risk.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 26, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.