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CMG

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.Close $32.28EOD only
Max Pain
$31.50
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.68
2.1% from close
Price Gap
-0.78
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
4
Low premium
P/C OI
1.30
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Jun 25, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CMG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 25, 2026 close
CMG Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 26, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness6 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: N/A
Invalidation: Spot < $25 or VIX > 25
Confidence:
4.5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 5.8% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18

IV Environment

IV Regime
Normal
IV vs VIX
AVG IV 49% vs VIX 18.4: elevated 2.7x, rich for selling.
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: 0 DTE put IV 114% vs call 78% shows extreme fear; upward sloping with spike at 35 DTE (Jul31).

⚠️0 DTE put IV 114%: extreme short-term skew, caution.
✅IV elevated 2.7x VIX, favorable for selling premium.

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+21.4M)

Gamma flip: ~$25.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 143,929 (25.0% below spot)

OI concentrations: Put floor $25-$30 (143k at $25); Call wall $38-$50.

Verdict: Max pain $32, spot above, positive gamma may pin to $32. Moderate risk.

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-08-21 $30.00/$27.50 put spread
Sell 30 put, buy 27.5 put for Aug21 expiry; 0.56 max gain, 56 DTE decay.
Credit: $0.46-$0.56
Max loss: $1.94
BE: $29.44
Mgmt: Exit if spot breaches $32.5; take profit at 50% max gain.
#2
Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-24 $32.00/$30.00 put wing and $35.00/$38.00 call wing
Sell 32/30 put and 35/38 call wings for Jul24 expiry; 1.07 max gain, 14 DTE.
Credit: $0.88-$1.07
Max loss: $1.93
BE: 30.93 / 36.07
Mgmt: Close before earnings to avoid gap risk; monitor pin action. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Wide spread (59%).

Risk Alerts

!Extreme put skew on 0 DTE.
!IV spike at Jul31 expiration (35 DTE) possible event risk.
!Spot above max pain with high put OI ratio (1.29).
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 26, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.