thetaOwl
HomeOptionsCMGReports

CMG

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.Close $27.52EOD only
Max Pain
$30.00
Next expiry Oct 30, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.15
7.8% from close
Price Gap
+2.48
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
28
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
1.36
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
5.0/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: Oct 23, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CMG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Oct 23, 2026 close
CMG Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 12, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 12, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 26, 2026.

View latest report

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness5 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Iron Condor
Invalidation: Spot breaks above $35 or below $28
Confidence:
5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 7.4% from MP; +1 VIX 18

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
Elevated (IV 55% vs VIX 18)
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Uneven; near-term low due to expiry, front-week elevated at 37%

📊GEX positive $1.6M: dealer long gamma, pinning
🔻Put OI concentration 22.4% below spot: floor near $25-$28
⚠️Max Pain $30 for weekly expiry; spot above, downside draw

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+1.6M)

Gamma flip: ~$25.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 144,010 (22.4% below spot)

OI concentrations: Put OI $28 (144k); call wall $35-$45

Verdict: High – max pain $30 pulls spot lower, dealer gamma supports

Premium Opportunities

#1
Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-10 $31.00/$29.00 put wing and $33.00/$34.00 call wing
Sells put spread 31/29 and call spread 33/34, 28 DTE, captures time decay with elevated IV.
Credit: $0.55-$0.67
Max loss: $1.33
BE: 30.33 / 33.67
Mgmt: Close at 50% max gain or near earnings to avoid gap risk.

Risk Alerts

!Max pain at $30 may pull spot lower
!IV high but term structure uneven; watch for vol compression
!Dealer long gamma may cap moves; pinning risk high
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 12, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.