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CMG

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.Close $32.49EOD only
Max Pain
$31.50
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.29
4.0% from close
Price Gap
-0.99
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
1.05
Balanced positioning
Consensus
6.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CMG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 18, 2026 close
CMG Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 22, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness8 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Out-of-the-money credit spreads
Invalidation: Spot closes below $28 support or above $33
Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -0.5 spot 3.0% from MP; +1 VIX 17

IV Environment

IV Regime
Normal
IV vs VIX
IV (48.5%) significantly above VIX (17.3) — rich premium for sellers, but elevated skew.
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Front-end IV declines then spikes at 39d (49.9%), overall contango with near-term dip—opportunity in short-dated premium.

📈IV 48.5% vs VIX 17.3: rich premium but driven by put demand (P/C OI 1.26).
⚠️Term structure dip then spike implies event risk in 39-day expiration; sell near-term but avoid back-week vol.

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Below

GEX regime: Trending ($-25.4M)

Gamma flip: ~$25.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 143,928 (18.1% below spot)

OI concentrations: Max pain $32 near-term; put OI 143,928 at $28, call wall $35-$42; gamma flip $25.

Verdict: Spot ($30.18) below max pain, pin risk to $32; high put OI at $28 provides support.

Premium Opportunities

#1
Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-31 $27.00/$25.00 put wing and $34.00/$37.00 call wing
Captures volatility crush after earnings with defined risk.
Credit: $0.71-$0.86
Max loss: $2.14
BE: 26.14 / 34.86
Mgmt: Close before earnings or after crush; watch gamma. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.
#2
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-24 $28.00/$26.00 put spread
Bullish premium selling with put OI support.
Credit: $0.25-$0.31
Max loss: $1.69
BE: $27.69
Mgmt: Monitor support at $28; roll if spot weakens. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (55%).
#3
Call credit spread
Sell 2026-07-24 $33.00/$35.00 call spread
Bearish premium selling with capped upside.
Credit: $0.25-$0.30
Max loss: $1.70
BE: $33.30
Mgmt: Manage if spot nears $31.5; close early if pin risk rises. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Wide spread (64%).

Risk Alerts

!Negative dealer gamma (-$25.4M) amplifies spot moves; hedge accordingly.
!Spot below max pain increases pin risk; monitor earnings/event volatility.
!Elevated IV but declining term structure—premium decay expected but watch for tail events.
!Put/call OI ratio >1 indicates hedging pressure; potential for short squeeze if spot rallies.
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 22, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.