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CMG

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.Close $33.14EOD only
Max Pain
$34.00
Next expiry Sep 25, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.04
3.1% from close
Price Gap
+0.86
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
2
Low premium
P/C OI
0.86
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
5.0/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: Sep 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CMG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Sep 21, 2026 close
CMG Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 23, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 23, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 26, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness8 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Credit spreads (bearish)
Invalidation: Spot breaks above $32 or VIX spikes above 25
Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +0.5 spot 1.7% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19

IV Environment

IV Regime
Normal
IV vs VIX
Elevated relative to VIX (48.1% vs 19.5%)
Favorable?
No

Term structure: Front-end contango, backwardation after 31d; highest IV at 31d

📉IV skew elevated, puts more expensive than calls
⚡Dealer short gamma (-$23.9M) and high put/call ratios amplify downside moves

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Below

GEX regime: Trending ($-23.9M)

Gamma flip: ~$25.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 143,939 (19.2% below spot)

OI concentrations: Put concentration $25-$28, call wall $35-$42; max pain pins $32, $31, $31

Verdict: Elevated pin risk as spot approaches key put support and dealer gamma flip at $25

Premium Opportunities

#1
Call credit spread
Sell 2026-07-31 $32.00/$34.00 call spread
Bearish defined-risk spread selling calls.
Credit: $0.67-$0.81
Max loss: $1.19
BE: $32.81
Mgmt: Exit if spot breaches $31.50.
#2
Call calendar
Sell 2026-07-17 $32.50 call / buy 2026-09-18 $32.50 call
Neutral/bearish calendar selling near-term call.
Debit: $1.24-$1.51
Max loss: $1.51
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Manage short leg at expiration; adjust if spot moves above invalidation.

Risk Alerts

!Negative dealer gamma may accelerate declines
!Bearish flow with high put/call volume ratio (2.32)
!Front-month IV (40.6%) relatively low, not compensating for tail risk
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 23, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.