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CMG

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.Close $30.54EOD only

Max Pain

$31.50

Next expiry Jun 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$1.16

3.8% from close

Price Gap

+0.96

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

1.26

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

6.5/10

Bearish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 22, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CMG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 22, 2026 close

CMG Theta Report

Analysis based on market close June 23, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

8 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +0.5 spot 1.7% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19

IV Environment

IV Regime

Normal

IV vs VIX

Elevated relative to VIX (48.1% vs 19.5%)

Favorable?

Term structure: Front-end contango, backwardation after 31d; highest IV at 31d

📉IV skew elevated, puts more expensive than calls

⚡Dealer short gamma (-$23.9M) and high put/call ratios amplify downside moves

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Below

GEX regime: Trending ($-23.9M)

Gamma flip: ~$25.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 143,939 (19.2% below spot)

OI concentrations: Put concentration $25-$28, call wall $35-$42; max pain pins $32, $31, $31

Verdict: Elevated pin risk as spot approaches key put support and dealer gamma flip at $25

Premium Opportunities

Call credit spread

Sell 2026-07-31 $32.00/$34.00 call spread

Bearish defined-risk spread selling calls.

Credit: $0.67-$0.81

Max loss: $1.19

BE: $32.81

Mgmt: Exit if spot breaches $31.50.

Call calendar

Sell 2026-07-17 $32.50 call / buy 2026-09-18 $32.50 call

Neutral/bearish calendar selling near-term call.

Debit: $1.24-$1.51

Max loss: $1.51

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Manage short leg at expiration; adjust if spot moves above invalidation.

Risk Alerts

!Negative dealer gamma may accelerate declines

!Bearish flow with high put/call volume ratio (2.32)

!Front-month IV (40.6%) relatively low, not compensating for tail risk

How to Use These Reports

This theta reflects the market close on June 23, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.