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CMG

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.Close $37.22EOD only
Max Pain
$34.00
Next expiry Aug 7, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.55
4.2% from close
Price Gap
-3.22
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
14
Low premium
P/C OI
0.72
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
5.0/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: Jul 31, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CMG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jul 31, 2026 close
CMG Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 17, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 17, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 26, 2026.

View latest report

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness6 / 10
Sizing: Conservative
Primary: Event hedging
Invalidation: Spot breaks below 30.02 support or above 32.4 resistance
Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +0.5 spot 1.7% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
IV (60%) significantly higher than VIX (18.44)
Favorable?
No

Term structure: Front-end elevated due to event risk; backwardated near-term then contango

⚠️Negative dealer gamma (-$19.5M) amplifies moves, risky for shorts
📉Bearish flow with put/call volume ratio 1.94

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Below

GEX regime: Trending ($-19.5M)

Gamma flip: ~$25.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 143,942 (21.5% below spot)

OI concentrations: Call OI wall $35-$45; Put floor $25-$28; Max pain near $32 for near-term expirations

Verdict: Moderate pin risk near $32; spot below max pain but put floor provides support

Premium Opportunities

#1
Call diagonal
Sell 2026-07-24 $32.00 call / buy 2026-09-18 $32.50 call
Sell near-term call, buy later call to profit from IV contraction post-event.
Debit: $0.88-$1.07
Max loss: $1.07
BE: Path-dependent
#2
Put diagonal
Sell 2026-07-24 $32.00 put / buy 2026-09-18 $32.50 put
Sell near-term put, buy later put to profit from post-event IV normalization.
Debit: $1.21-$1.48
Max loss: $1.48
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25. Substitutions: short_put: resolved contract 2026-07-24 $32.50 missing; used 2026-07-24 $32.00.

Risk Alerts

!Event risk on 2026-06-18 drives extreme 1d IV
!Negative GEX can exacerbate directional moves
!Bearish flow suggests continued downside pressure
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 17, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.