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CMG

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.Close $38.52EOD only

Max Pain

$33.00

Next expiry Jul 31, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.85

2.2% from close

Price Gap

-5.52

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.74

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

5.0/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: Jul 30, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CMG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jul 30, 2026 close

CMG Theta Report

Analysis based on market close June 15, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 15, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 26, 2026.

View latest report

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

8.5 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +0.5 spot 1.0% from MP; +1 VIX 16

IV Environment

IV Regime

High

IV vs VIX

52.9% IV vs 16.2 VIX — elevated

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Steep contango from 3DTE to 11DTE, then flattening. Front-week call IV 129% indicates event risk.

⚠️Extreme front-week call skew (129% IV) suggests heavy call buying — potential explosive move.

🔻Negative dealer gamma ($-2.4M) amplifies spot moves — avoid naked shorts.

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Trending ($-2.4M)

Gamma flip: ~$25.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 143,944 (23.6% below spot)

OI concentrations: Max pain pins at $32 (18Jun), $31 (26Jun, 2Jul). Call wall $35-$45, put floor $25-$28.

Verdict: Moderate — nearest max pain $32 is within EM guardrails, but high call OI above and negative gamma increase pin likelihood.

Premium Opportunities

Iron condor

Sell 2026-07-17 $30.00/$27.50 put wing and $35.00/$37.50 call wing

Sell wider put and call wings to capture theta decay with capped risk.

Credit: $0.66-$0.81

Max loss: $1.69

BE: 29.19 / 35.81

Mgmt: Close at 50% max gain or before earnings.

Call credit spread

Sell 2026-07-10 $35.00/$45.00 call spread

Sell 35/45 call spread to collect premium with capped loss.

Credit: $0.36-$0.45

Max loss: $9.55

BE: $35.45

Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks above $34.83 or before earnings. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Volume below 5.

Put credit spread

Sell 2026-07-10 $31.00/$29.00 put spread

Sell 31/29 put spread to collect premium with defined risk.

Credit: $0.30-$0.36

Max loss: $1.64

BE: $30.64

Mgmt: Adjust if spot falls below $32.50. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (53%).

Risk Alerts

!Front-week event risk (earnings?) — IV may collapse post-event.

!Short gamma exacerbates moves; black swan scenarios possible.

!High IV premium attractive but defined risk essential.

How to Use These Reports

This theta reflects the market close on June 15, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.