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CMG

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.Close $32.73EOD only
Max Pain
$32.40
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.00
3.0% from close
Price Gap
-0.33
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
60
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
1.08
Balanced positioning
Consensus
4.5/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Jun 15, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CMG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 15, 2026 close
CMG Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 16, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness7 / 10
Sizing: Conservative
Primary: Earnings premium decay
Invalidation: Unexpected earnings reaction beyond implied move
Confidence:
6 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 spot 0.6% from MP; +1 VIX 16; override: Earnings event introduces binary risk, reducing reliability of deterministic score.

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
IV at 57% vs VIX 16.4 – very elevated.
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Call IV 166% for 2-day expiry (earnings); rest of curve elevated but declining.

📅Earnings in 2 days driving call IV to 166%
⚠️Dealer short gamma may amplify moves on earnings

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: At

GEX regime: Trending ($-9.4M)

Gamma flip: ~$25.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 143,943 (23.3% below spot)

OI concentrations: Max pain at $32; put OI concentration 143,943 (23.3% below spot) suggesting floor at $25-$28.

Verdict: Earnings event overrides typical pin risk – stock can gap.

Premium Opportunities

#1
Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-17 $30.00/$27.50 put wing and $35.00/$37.50 call wing
Sell put & call wings to collect premium, betting range-bound.
Credit: $0.54-$0.65
Max loss: $1.85
BE: 29.35 / 35.65
Mgmt: Stop-loss if IV spikes; close before earnings if gap risk high. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (67%).
#2
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $30.00/$27.50 put spread
Sell OTM put spread, expecting support holds.
Credit: $0.25-$0.31
Max loss: $2.19
BE: $29.69
Mgmt: Roll/close if stock breaks short strike; monitor gamma risk. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (67%).

Risk Alerts

!Earnings event on 2026-06-18 imposes binary gap risk
!High call IV suggests skewed demand for upside
!Dealer short gamma (-$9.4M) may amplify moves
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 16, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.