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CMG

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.Close $34.43EOD only

Max Pain

$32.00

Next expiry Nov 13, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.69

2.0% from close

Price Gap

-2.43

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

High premium

P/C OI

1.54

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

5.0/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: Nov 6, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CMG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Nov 6, 2026 close

CMG Theta Report

Analysis based on market close June 24, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 24, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 26, 2026.

View latest report

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

8 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 spot 0.6% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19

IV Environment

IV Regime

Normal

IV vs VIX

IV elevated vs VIX, 151% of VIX

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Overall contango with a volatility spike at 37 DTE (July 31 expiry), suggesting event risk.

📈IV 46.8% vs VIX 18.6% offers rich premiums

⚠️Vol spike at 37 DTE signals potential event risk

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: At

GEX regime: Trending ($-13.6M)

Gamma flip: ~$25.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 143,936 (21.1% below spot)

OI concentrations: Max pain at $32 (2d), $31 (1w, 2w). Call wall $35-$42, put floor $25-$30.

Verdict: Elevated pin risk near 2-day expiry; monitor max pain $32.

Premium Opportunities

Put credit spread

Sell 2026-07-24 $30.00/$29.00 put spread

Sell $30/$29 put spread for credit, max gain $0.28.

Credit: $0.23-$0.28

Max loss: $0.72

BE: $29.72

Mgmt: Exit if CMG breaks below $31.5.

Call credit spread

Sell 2026-07-31 $33.00/$34.00 call spread

Sell $33/$34 call spread, max gain $0.33.

Credit: $0.27-$0.33

Max loss: $0.67

BE: $33.33

Mgmt: Close before July 31 if IV drops.

Iron condor

Sell 2026-07-24 $31.00/$30.00 put wing and $33.00/$34.00 call wing

Sell $31/$30 put wing and $33/$34 call wing, max gain $0.75.

Credit: $0.61-$0.75

Max loss: $0.25

BE: 30.25 / 33.75

Mgmt: Adjust wings if spot approaches $31 or $33.

Risk Alerts

!Gamma trending regime increases directional risk

!Negative dealer gamma of $-13.6M amplifies spot moves

!Volatility spike at 37 DTE (July 31) may indicate event risk

How to Use These Reports

This theta reflects the market close on June 24, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.