thetaOwl

CMG

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.Close $32.23EOD only
Max Pain
$32.40
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.25
3.9% from close
Price Gap
+0.17
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
45
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
1.11
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
5.0/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CMG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 12, 2026 close
CMG Flow Report
Analysis based on market close June 15, 2026

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Flow Verdict

BiasBearish
Confirmation: Break below recent low with volume
Invalidation: Price above gamma flip at $25
Confidence:
8.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +0.5 spot 1.0% from MP; +1 VIX 16

Watch next session: Monitor put OI changes

Flow Summary

Net premium: -$14.6M bearish

P/C volume ratio: 1.20

P/C OI ratio: 1.08

Heavy put buying at weekly expirations, net premium negative, put-call ratios elevated. Negative gamma suggests accelerated downside if spot declines.

Notable Prints

#1
CMG 2026-06-18 $39.20 Put
Vol: 2,644
OI: 576
Vol/OI: 4.6x
IV: 96.9%
Notional: ~$2.3M
Intent: Bearish bet
Dual read: Hedge

Read-through: High vol/OI

#2
CMG 2026-06-26 $36.00 Call
Vol: 904
OI: 249
Vol/OI: 3.6x
IV: 40.0%
Notional: ~$9K
Intent: Speculative

Read-through: OTM call, low cost

#3
CMG 2026-06-18 $37.20 Put
Vol: 1,354
OI: 403
Vol/OI: 3.4x
IV: 50.0%
Notional: ~$880K
Intent: Bearish
Dual read: Roll

Read-through: New put

#4
CMG 2026-06-18 $40.00 Put
Vol: 5,136
OI: 1,708
Vol/OI: 3.0x
IV: 125.4%
Notional: ~$4.8M
Intent: Aggressive bearish
Dual read: Hedge

Read-through: Largest volume

#5
CMG 2026-06-18 $38.00 Put
Vol: 1,304
OI: 431
Vol/OI: 3.0x
IV: 100.4%
Notional: ~$939K
Intent: Bearish
Dual read: Hedge

Read-through: High IV

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Minimal; only $36C 6/26 vol 904 (low OI).

Put additions: Heavy: $40P vol 5136, OI 1708; $39.2P, $37.2P, $38P active.

GEX/DEX consistency: Mixed: GEX -$2.4M (short gamma), DEX +23.2M (long delta); vulnerable to sharp moves.

OI clusters: Put OI: $40 (1708), $38 (431), $45 (270); call OI sparse. Gamma flip ~$25.

Hedging evidence: Aggressive put buying (vol>OI 3x), elevated IV (125%+); hedging or bearish bets.

Max pain context: Spot above MP; high put OI suggests resistance near $40; gamma flip at $25 signals downside risk.

Signal vs Noise

~Put surge at $40 strike is real signal: institutional flow + negative GEX.
~High put IV and vol/oi>3 confirm bearish hedging, not noise.
~Low OI call ($36C) is noise; likely retail/speculative.
~DEX +23.2M vs negative GEX suggests confusion; DEX may be stale or broader.

Key Conclusions

🔴Institutions loading puts at $40, $38; OI clusters act as resistance.
⚠️Negative GEX + high put IV = dealer hedging pressure; spot below $40 could accelerate decline.
📌Max pain unclear but put OI suggests $40; monitor gamma flip at $25.
How to Use These Reports
This flow reflects the market close on June 15, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.