thetaOwl

AMZN

Amazon.com, Inc.Close $265.82EOD only
Max Pain
$270.00
Next expiry May 13, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.41
1.3% from close
Price Gap
+4.18
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
46
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.59
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: May 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AMZN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 12, 2026 close
AMZN Directional Report
Analysis based on market close May 13, 2026

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias via pinning gamma ($265) and bullish flow. Spot above max pain with low VIX supports range-bound upside. Target $275 resistance near-term.

Confidence:
9 / 10
GEX/flow alignment (+2), gamma pinning (+1), spot proximity to MP (+0.5), low VIX (+1) give base 9/10.
Supports: GEX +$458.5M, DEX +162.9M shares, spot above $265 MP, bullish flow, low VIX.
Conflicts: No major conflicts; slight resistance at $275.
📊Gamma pin at $265 provides strong support.
📈Bullish flow with net premium buying.
📉Low VIX (17.87) supports orderly movement.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Normal vol, IV inline with typical range.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Pinning: GEX +$458.5M, no flip risk near spot.
Flow Regime
Bullish
Bullish: net premium flow suggests upward bias.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot above $265 MP by ~1.9%, favoring drift up.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Near-term gamma and OI structure aligned with weekly expiry on 2026-05-13.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$264.67$275.60
Gamma support at $265, resistance $275.6.
Next 1 week
$263.13$277.13
Extended range $263-$277, max pain at $265.
Next 2 weeks
$256.73$283.53
Broader support $256.7, resistance $283.5.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $265 (2026-05-13); $235 (2026-05-15); $265 (2026-05-18)
EM guardrails: 2d $264.67/$275.60; 1w $263.13/$277.13
Support: $265.00 · $256.73
Resistance: $275.00 · $280.00 · $283.53
Structural: Support $265 (max pain, gamma pivot), $256.7. Resistance $275 (EM guardrail), $280, $283.5. Gamma flip not imminent.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+458.5M

DEX: +162.9M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: Dealers long gamma: GEX +$458.5M, DEX +162.9M shares. No gamma flip within 30% of spot.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV moderate, slightly above VIX but within normal range for AMZN.

Term structure: Front-end flat, slight contango into weekly expiry.

Skew: Put skew elevated; call spreads attractive for upside exposure.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium positive $270M, P/C vol 0.38, OI 0.59, heavy call buying.

Directional prints: 16.8 call 267.5 ITM 2026-05-13 — 0DTE call vol/OI 22x; likely bought, bullish. 3 call 270 ITM 2026-05-13 — 0DTE call vol/OI 14x; aggressive buying, bullish.

Unusual: 9.2 put 267.5 OTM 2026-05-13 — 0DTE put vol/OI 14.9x, near-zero premium; likely sold or hedged. 36.7 put 247.5 OTM 2026-05-20 — 5/20 put vol/OI 8.7x, OTM; possible protective buy or sell. 29.1 call 270 ITM 2026-05-20 — 5/20 call vol/OI 7.2x, OTM; may be bullish roll.

Risks & Catalysts

!Break below $265 gamma flip zone could trigger stop losses.
!Spike in VIX from macro event would disrupt pinning.
!Flow reversal if sentiment shifts suddenly.
!Resistance at $275 may cap moves without catalyst.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-06-12 $280.00/$290.00 call spread
Why now: Heavy call buying and gamma pinning support upside
Profit capped at $285; break below $265 invalidates
Bullish risk reversalModerate
Buy 2026-06-18 $275.00 call / sell 2026-06-18 $250.00 put
Why now: Bullish flow and low VIX support premium collection
Unlimited downside if stock drops sharply
Put credit spreadModerate
Sell 2026-06-05 $260.00/$250.00 put spread
Why now: Gamma pinning at $265 provides downside buffer
Max loss limited; stock below $260 could hurt

Top Plays

#1
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-06-12 $280.00/$290.00 call spread
Captures upside with defined risk, leveraging bullish flow and low VIX.
Why this play: Best risk/reward for bullish bias; heavy call buying and gamma pinning support upside to $275+.
Debit: $2.45-$2.99
Max loss: $2.99
BE: $282.99
Mgmt: Exit if stock breaks below $265; take profit near $275 or at expiration.
Traders seeking limited-risk bullish exposure.
#2
Bullish Risk Reversal
Buy 2026-06-18 $275.00 call / sell 2026-06-18 $250.00 put
Combines long call and short put to express strong bullish sentiment.
Why this play: Unlimited upside potential with premium collection; suits aggressive bullish view.
Debit: $4.68-$5.72
Max loss: $250.00
BE: $250.00
Mgmt: Monitor gamma flip at $265; adjust if VIX spikes.
Aggressive traders comfortable with higher risk.
#3
Put Credit Spread
Sell 2026-06-05 $260.00/$250.00 put spread
Sells put spread to collect premium with defined risk, benefiting from support at $265.
Why this play: Defensive bullish; uses gamma pinning as downside buffer for income.
Credit: $1.91-$2.34
Max loss: $7.66
BE: $257.66
Mgmt: Exit if stock drops below $265; roll if tested.
Income-focused traders expecting range-bound upside.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFStock holds above $265 supportBuy 2026-06-12 $280/$290 call spread near $2.72
IFStock breaks above $275 resistanceBuy 2026-06-18 $275 call / sell 2026-06-18 $250 put near $5.20
IFStock remains above $265Sell 2026-06-05 $260/$250 put spread near $2.10
Exit Triggers
EXITStock breaks below $265Close all bullish positions

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias via gamma pinning ($265) and call flow. Key support $265, resistance $275. Entry on support hold or breakout. Break below $265 invalidates. Use limited-risk spreads. Next earnings 2026-07-30.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on May 13, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.