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AMZN

Amazon.com, Inc.Close $256.52EOD only

Max Pain

$262.50

Next expiry Jun 3, 2026

Expected Move

±$3.85

1.5% from close

Price Gap

+5.98

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.63

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

9.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 2, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AMZN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 2, 2026 close

AMZN Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 10, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 10, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with a short-term magnet into the $240 area; Confidence: 7.0/10; strongest supports are large positive GEX (+$361.9M) concentrated at $240 (+$14.7M) and heavy call premium flow concentrated at $250/$240 which creates a call-side gravity while net premium +$349.5M signals institutional bullishness. Conflicts: spot is 12.2% above the nearest longer-dated max pain ladder and IV term shows a sharp jump beyond two weeks (21d+), which increases tail risk if macro shifts.

Confidence:

7 / 10

Base 7.0 per pre-compute; drivers: +large positive GEX pin at $240, +heavy net call premium flow, -spot sits above near-term MP trend (12.2%). No hidden catalysts found to override.

Supports: GEX pin at $240 (+$14.7M), secondary put OI clusters at $235/$225 provide intraday buybacks; net premium and P/C ratios tilt institutional activity toward calls.
Conflicts: Max pain trajectory lower in short expiries ($212→$225) and spot 12.2% above multi-exp MP; IV spike in 21d+ expiries increases tail cost for selling premium.

📌Pin magnet at $240 (GEX +$14.7M) is the dominant near-term technical anchor

💳Heavy call premium at $250 ($73.8M net) — upside interest concentrated 5% above spot

⚠️IV very low short-dated (3d ATM 24.2%) but jumps to 44.9% at 21d — calendar/diagonal vol arbitrage present

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Vol: Normal — short-dated IV depressed (3d ATM 24.2%, 5d 28.7%) vs avg IV 41.7% due to heavy near-term call flow and dealer hedging compressing ATM vols.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Gamma: Pinning — positive, concentrated near-the-money gamma at $240/$235 forces dealer delta buys into dips and sells into rallies, favoring mean-reversion around $240.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Flow: Bullish — net premium +$349.5M and P/C vol 0.44 indicate institutional call buying concentrated at $240-$250 (net call spend largest at $250).

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot above max pain — current spot $238.38 sits above several near expiry MPs ($212-$225) which creates tension; short-term pin at $240 dominates, longer-dated MP trend is rising.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — GEX pin and bullish flow concentrated across multiple near-term expirations (2–4 weeks) and IV term jumps after ~21d, so trade edge persists 2–4 weeks — prefer 30–45 DTE for core trades, weeklies for tactical overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$237.02$239.75

GEX +$14.7M at $240 and 2d EM guardrails $237.02/$239.75; breach of <$237 invalidates short-term pin.

Next 1 week

$235.99$240.78

1w EM $235.99-$240.78; dealer hedging will compress moves unless macro shocks occur.

Next 2 weeks

$227.06$249.71

2w bounds $227.06-$249.71; sustained break above $249.71 or below $227.06 will flip dealer hedges and trend.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $212 (2026-04-10); $225 (2026-04-13); $220 (2026-04-15)

EM guardrails: 2d $237.02/$239.75; 1w $235.99/$240.78

Support: $235.00 · $232.50 · $225.00

Resistance: $240.00 · $245.00 · $250.00

Structural: Structural call OI wall at $260–$300 caps sustained rallies; long-term put floor clusters around $200–$210 significant for directional hedges.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+361.9M

DEX: +145.7M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: Large positive near-ATM gamma concentrated at $240 (+$14.7M) and secondary at $235 (+$3.3M) — dealers will buy delta on dips toward $235 and sell delta above $240; a ±2% move (≈$233–$243) will materially reduce dealer selling (dips provoke delta buys, rallies provoke delta sells), amplifying mean-reversion into the pin.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: ATM IVs are depressed short-dated (3d 24.2%, 5d 28.7%) versus average IV 41.7%; short IV cheaper than longer-dated vols (21d+ 44.9%), so short-term selling is less rewarded than calendar/diagonal buys.

Term structure: Steep kink: 3d 24.2% → 21d 44.9% (large front-end cheapening and back-end richening) — buy longer-dated protection or sell longer-dated to buy front if selling vols.

Skew: Notable mispricing: buy 21–35d calls or construct regular calendars selling 21d (higher IV) while buying 3–10d (lower IV); example: sell May01 (21d) IV ~44.9%, buy Apr20 (10d) IV ~29.5% — ~15 vol-pt edge.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: + $349.5M bullish; P/C vol 0.44 indicates dominant call buying.

Directional prints: 25.4 put 235 OTM 2026-04-13 — Large unusual trade AMZN260413P00235000 vol 24,030 vs OI 330 (72.8x) — could be short-dated directional hedge (bought protection) or options-selling leg; given overall net call flow, interpreted as tactical protection (buy puts) — buy interpretation more consistent. 29.2 call 250 OTM 2026-04-15 — Unusual call flow AMZN260415C00250000 vol 5,078 vs OI 279 (18.2x) aligns with large call premium at $250 — likely aggressive call buys.

Unusual: 25.4 put 235 OTM 2026-04-13 — High-velocity 4/13 $235 put print (24,030 vol) — likely short-dated protection bought by participants, elevates short-dated skew demand.

Risks & Catalysts

!Pin breaks below $237 (2d EM low) — dealer hedging flips from buying to selling causing accelerated downmoves.

!Macro shock or broad market selloff raising VIX will inflate 21d+ IV and punish short premium; IV at 21d is 44.9%.

!Max pain trend lower in immediate expiries (today–next week $212–$225) could pull spot if sustained put buying arrives.

!Earnings on 2026-04-30 (~3 weeks) could reprice longer-dated vols and invalidate multi-week range if guidance surprises.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy AMZN shares at market	GEX pin and concentrated call flow make sharp mean-reversion likely; large downside to MP trend.
Short stock	Weak	Avoid initiating naked short — heavy dealer positive gamma and call flow create asymmetry	Dealers buy dips; short squeezes likely into pin.
Covered call	Moderate	Buy stock + sell 2026-05-01 250C	Forgoes upside past $250; long stock downside exposure to MP trend.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-20 $235/$230 put spread	Breaks below $232.5 support and GEX flip accelerate losses.
Long calls	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-05-01 250C for directional upside	High theta and elevated 21d+ IV; call premium expensive relative to 3–10d.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-04-20 $240/$235 bear put spread	Against pinning — dealers will buy dips; expensive if no macro stress.
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-20 $240/$235 put x $250/$255 call (defined-risk wings sized)	VIX spike or trend above $250 breaks call wing; manage if spot exits EM $235–$241.
Calendar / Diagonal (regular calendar)	Strong	Sell 2026-05-01 250C, buy 2026-04-20 250C (sell higher-IV longer, buy lower-IV near)	Requires careful vega exposure; leg IV differential (~44.9% May01 vs ~29.5% Apr20 ≈ +15.4 vol-pt) drives edge.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-20 240C, buy 2027-01-15 240C (LEAPS diagonal)	Assumes persistent pin; exposure to earnings and term-structure shifts.
Short premium wings (butterfly/condor overlays)	Moderate	Sell 2026-04-20 240/245 call vertical, buy 235/230 put vertical as hedge	Vol blowouts or directional moves beyond EM bounds cause losses.

Top Plays

Sell 240/235 put spread 2026-04-20

Sell 2026-04-20 $240/$235 put spread

Works with positive GEX pin at $240 and short-dated IV cheap; collects premium while dealers buy dips into $240.

Credit: $0.65-$0.90

Max loss: $4.35

BE: $238.35

Mgmt: Take profit at 50–70% of max credit; cut if spot < $235 or VIX spikes above 35.

Defined-risk premium collectors wanting short-dated exposure

Regular calendar on 250C (sell May01, buy Apr20)

Sell 2026-05-01 250C, buy 2026-04-20 250C

Exploits large IV differential (May01 ~44.9% vs Apr20 ~29.5% ≈ +15.4 vol-pt); collects calendar vega and benefits if spot remains under $250 while front-month gamma decays.

Debit: $0.40-$0.80

Max loss: $100.00

BE: Requires scenario management (structured around IV collapse)

Mgmt: Trim if front IV rises or if spot rallies toward $250; unwind if front-month loses <50% extrinsic in 3 trading days.

Vol-arbitrage traders comfortable managing calendar decay and assignment risk

Sell iron-condor 240/235 put x 250/255 call 2026-04-20

Sell 2026-04-20 240/235 put vertical and sell 2026-04-20 250/255 call vertical

Defined-risk short premium that aligns with pin at $240 and call interest at $250; collects premium across the concentrated gamma band.

Credit: $1.10-$1.85

Max loss: $3.90

BE: Lower BE ~238.90 / Upper BE ~251.95

Mgmt: Take 50–75% profit if premium decays to target; cut if spot < $235 or > $252.

Traders wanting defined risk short premium over the next 1–2 weeks

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot tags $240 and holds for 30 minutes → Sell 2026-04-20 $240/$235 put spread

IFIf spot is < $239 and front 10d IV < 30% → Initiate regular calendar: sell 2026-05-01 250C, buy 2026-04-20 250C

IFIf spot rallies to $245 and fails to close above $245 for 2 sessions → Sell iron-condor 240/235 put x 250/255 call 2026-04-20

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf spot drops below $235 → Roll down short put spread strikes one strike (e.g., to 235/230) or buy 235–240 protection

ADJIf VIX (SPX) rises >5 pts intraday and spot <$238 → Hedge short premium by buying 240/245 call verticals or reduce size

Exit Triggers

EXITIf short premium trade reaches 60% of max profit → Close 50–100% of position to lock gains

EXITIf spot closes below $232.50 (secondary support) or IV21d >50% → Exit all short premium and convert to directional hedges

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: positive GEX pin at $240 plus large institutional call flow creates a mean-reverting, multi-week short-premium edge concentrated within $235–$250; invalidation below $232.50 (secondary support) or a sustained IV spike (>50% 21d) flips edge to directional protection. Top plays: short-dated put spread (4/20 240/235) for defined credit, calendar on 250C to harvest term-structure, and iron-condor 240/235x250/255 for balanced short premium.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 10, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.