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AMZN

Amazon.com, Inc.Close $234.27EOD only
Max Pain
$237.50
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$5.81
2.5% from close
Price Gap
+3.23
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
10
Low premium
P/C OI
0.62
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 24, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AMZN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 24, 2026 close
AMZN Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 25, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias with near-term upside to max pain $238, supported by dealer long delta and short gamma amplification. Mixed flow and spot below MP introduce caution.

Confidence:
7 / 10
Base 5, +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned, -0.5 spot 4.4% below MP, +0.5 VIX 19.
Supports: Dealer long delta, short gamma, normal vol, positive flow alignment.
Conflicts: Mixed overall flow, spot below max pain, resistance near $237.5.
📈Dealer delta +101M shares, gamma -12.3M amplifies directional moves.
🎯Max pain at $238 (6/26) acts as upside magnet.
⚠️Mixed flow and spot 4.4% below MP warrants caution.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Volatility is normal relative to typical range, with VIX at 19 indicating no extreme fear or complacency.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Total gamma -$12.3M, moderately negative dealers short gamma, no flip point within 30% of spot.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Options flow mixed overall but recent premium skewed bullish with positive delta flow.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot 4.4% below max pain $238, creating upward pull but pin risk near expiration.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Upcoming expiration on 2026-06-26 and subsequent weekly expirations create event-specific dynamics with max pain as magnet.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$222.86$231.15
Upside to $231.15 EM guardrail, with $238 max pain as target.
Next 1 week
$218.96$235.06
Potential to test $235 max pain for weekly expiration.
Next 2 weeks
$214.18$239.83
Support $214.18, resistance $239.83, dealer delta favors upside.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $238 (2026-06-26); $235 (2026-06-29); $238 (2026-07-01)
EM guardrails: 2d $222.86/$231.15; 1w $218.96/$235.06
Support: $214.18
Resistance: $237.50 · $239.83
Structural: Max pain pins: $238 (6/26), $235 (6/29), $238 (7/1). EM guardrails: 2d $222.86/$231.15; 1w $218.96/$235.06. Support $214.18, resistance $237.5 and $239.83.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-12.3M

DEX: +101.3M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: Dealers net long +101.3M shares delta but short gamma -$12.3M, amplifying directional bias. No gamma flip within 30%.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: AMZN IV likely in line with VIX ~19; vol regime Normal, not rich or cheap vs market.

Term structure: Front-end vol may be elevated due to event-specific expiration; back-month normal.

Skew: Skew data unavailable; no actionable vol structure opportunity identified.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium +$123M (bought); call-heavy volume (P/C 0.65) indicates bullish flow.

Directional prints: 33.9 call 227.5 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 110x OI, likely bought, bullish. 32.1 call 230 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 21.8x OI, likely bought, bullish. 62.4 put 242.5 ITM 2026-06-29 — Vol 18.2x OI, put buying, bearish.

Unusual: 33.9 call 227.5 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 110x OI, extreme call activity. 32.1 call 230 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 21.8x OI, notable call volume. 62.4 put 242.5 ITM 2026-06-29 — Vol 18.2x OI, unusual put volume.

Risks & Catalysts

!Expiration pin risk near $238 max pain.
!Short gamma amplifies moves in either direction.
!Mixed flow suggests potential lack of sustained conviction.
!Resistance zone $237.5-239.83 may cap upside.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Long callModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-07-31 $245.00 call
Why now: Long call captures upside convexity and volatility expansion into earnings. Theta decay risk but defined downside.
Theta decay if flat; short gamma multiplies move. Max loss is premium paid.
Bull call spreadModerate
Buy 2026-07-31 $245.00/$255.00 call spread
Why now: Bull call spread limits downside while leveraging upside to $248 region. Lower premium outlay.
Upside capped; may not capture full rally. Max loss is debit paid.

Top Plays

#1
Long Call
Buy 2026-07-31 $245.00 call
Expresses bullish directional view with positive gamma and vega exposure ahead of earnings.
Why this play: Captures upside convexity and volatility expansion into earnings, with unlimited upside potential, aligning with bullish bias.
Debit: $4.68-$5.72
Max loss: $5.72
BE: $250.72
Mgmt: Monitor for theta decay; take profits at $255 or 100% gain. Stop loss at $214.18 invalidation.
Aggressive traders seeking maximum upside.
#2
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-07-31 $245.00/$255.00 call spread
Expresses bullish view with defined risk and reduced cost, suitable for event-driven trades.
Why this play: Limits downside while leveraging upside to $248 region with lower premium outlay, reducing risk for a similar bullish view.
Debit: $1.78-$2.17
Max loss: $2.17
BE: $247.17
Mgmt: Target max profit at $255; consider early close at 50% gain or loss. Monitor expiration pin risk.
Risk-averse traders seeking defined risk and moderate return.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFPrice breaks above resistance $237.5 with volume → Buy 2026-07-31 $245 call at market (target entry $4.68-$5.72)
Adjustment Triggers
ADJPrice reaches $248 and momentum stalls → Close 50% of long call to lock profits
Exit Triggers
EXITPrice falls below support $214.18 → Exit all long positions to limit loss

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias into earnings 35 days out. Key resistance $237.5; support $214.18. Enter on breakout with long call. Manage via stop at $214.18 and target $255. Max pain $238 adds near-term ceiling; monitor for gamma squeeze.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 25, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.