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AMZN

Amazon.com, Inc.Close $232.79EOD only
Max Pain
$240.00
Next expiry Jun 24, 2026
Expected Move
±$5.53
2.4% from close
Price Gap
+7.21
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
13
Low premium
P/C OI
0.65
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AMZN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 22, 2026 close
AMZN Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 23, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

AMZN near $235 max pain with positive dealer gamma ($+79.8M) providing pinning support, but broad tech sell-off (QQQ -3.3%) creates downside risk. Neutral-bearish bias short-term; downside to 2d low at $230.43 likely if market pressure persists. Longer-term, structural support at $220.79 and resistance at $247.44 define range.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
Base 5 from mixed flow and VIX 19.5; adjustments: -1 GEX/flow contradict (mixed flow), +1 GEX positive pinning, +1 spot 0.4% from MP, +0.5 VIX 19 (normal vol). Net 6.5/10.
Supports: Positive dealer gamma ($+79.8M) and delta (+99.5M shares); spot at max pain ($235); normal vol environment.
Conflicts: Broad market sell-off (QQQ -3.3%); mixed flow data (GEX positive but flow direction negative).
📌Spot at $235 max pain - high pin probability for near-term expiries.
📉QQQ -3.3% suggests tech weakness; AMZN likely to test $230.43 2d low.
🛡️Dealer gamma $+79.8M provides support; buyers step in on dips.
📊VIX 19.5 normal; implied vol not elevated despite sell-off.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Normal: VIX 19.5, near typical range for large-cap tech. No IV expansion despite market drop.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Pinning: Positive dealer gamma ($+79.8M) actively hedging, reinforcing $235 max pin. No flip risk within 30% of spot.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed: Net premium flow ambiguous; GEX positive but flow direction negative, indicating conflict between dealer hedging and directional trades.
Spot vs Max Pain
At
At: Spot at exactly max pain ($235) for near expiry (2026-06-24), increasing pin probability and range-bound behavior.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Focus on weekly expiry (2026-06-24) pin action; broad market pressure may extend weakness, but pinning effects dominate short-term.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$230.43$237.80
Market sell-off likely pushes to lower band $230.43; pin at $235 as pivot.
Next 1 week
$226.06$242.16
Wider range $226.06-$242.16; pinning at $240 (2026-06-26) may cap upside.
Next 2 weeks
$220.79$247.44
Support $220.79 holds; potential bounce back to $235-$247.44 resistance zone.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $235 (2026-06-24); $240 (2026-06-26); $235 (2026-06-29)
EM guardrails: 2d $230.43/$237.80; 1w $226.06/$242.16
Support: $220.79
Resistance: $235.00 · $247.44 · $250.00
Structural: Support 220.79 (2w low); resistance 235 (max pain), 247.44 (2w high), 250 (round number). Gamma flip not present; no significant put OI below spot.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+79.8M

DEX: +99.5M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: Dealer gamma positive $+79.8M, delta +99.5M shares. Long gamma implies stabilizing hedging; long delta indicates net long exposure.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV likely inline with VIX 19.5; no cheap/rich divergence. Normal implied vol supports range-bound strategy.

Term structure: No event kinks significant; near-term expiries (2d, 1w) reflective of pinning dynamics. Backwardation not observed.

Skew: Skew neutral; opportunity in short-dated strangles near $235 pin with expectation of staying within 2d range.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$15.8M (net put buying) but put/call volume ratio 0.44 and OI ratio 0.63 suggest bullish; mixed signal.

Directional prints: 27.3 call 237.5 OTM 2026-06-24 — Vol 38k vs OI 2k (19x); likely opening. Bearish if sold, bullish if bought. 27.2 put 235 ITM 2026-06-24 — Vol 20k vs OI 1.3k (15.6x); likely opening. Bearish if bought.

Unusual: 80.5 call 212.5 ITM 2026-06-24 — Deep ITM call, vol 2.2k vs OI 232 (9.5x), IV 80.5% unusually high for deep ITM. 81.4 call 210 ITM 2026-06-24 — Deep ITM call, vol 2.3k vs OI 309 (7.3x), IV 81.4%; similar unusual pattern. 41.7 call 225 ITM 2026-06-26 — Weekly call (6/26), vol 1.9k vs OI 273 (7.1x), IV 41.7% elevated. Unusual expiration.

Risks & Catalysts

!Broad market sell-off accelerating (QQQ breakdown) could break $230.43 support.
!Dealer gamma flips if spot moves 30% below current (unlikely).
!Flow turns aggressively bearish, overwhelming pinning support.
!Earnings or macro surprise (no event scheduled but macro risk).

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate
Buy 2026-07-31 $215.00/$210.00 put spread
Why now: Post-earnings bearish guidance suggests downside to $230.43; bear put spread limits risk while profiting if spot declines below short strike.
Upside risk if spot rallies above short strike; max loss is net premium paid.
Call credit spreadModerate
Sell 2026-07-31 $260.00/$270.00 call spread
Why now: Earnings guidance capped upside; sell call spread to profit from spot staying below resistance near $240.
Upside risk if spot breaks above sold strike; defined loss.
Long putModerate-Weak
Buy 2026-07-31 $220.00 put
Why now: Bearish earnings guidance justifies long put for convex payoff; target $230.43.
Time decay if spot stays above strike; requires downside move.

Top Plays

#1
Bearish Call Credit Spread
Sell 2026-07-31 $260.00/$270.00 call spread
Sells OTM call spread to capture premium decay as spot stays below resistance.
Why this play: Best aligns with neutral-bearish bias; profits from limited upside while avoiding large downside risk.
Credit: $1.46-$1.79
Max loss: $8.21
BE: $261.79
Mgmt: Set stop at invalidation level 235; take profit at 50% of max gain.
Traders expecting range-bound or slightly bearish price action.
#2
Long Put
Buy 2026-07-31 $220.00 put
Buys OTM put to hedge or speculate on downside break.
Why this play: Provides convex payoff if sell-off intensifies beyond 220, but less likely given support at 220.79.
Debit: $4.55-$5.56
Max loss: $5.56
BE: $214.44
Mgmt: Close if spot rebounds above 235 or if theta decay accelerates.
Aggressive traders willing to pay premium for tail risk.
#3
Bear Put Spread
Buy 2026-07-31 $215.00/$210.00 put spread
Buys put spread targeting sub-210 move.
Why this play: Requires deeper decline than thesis suggests; lower probability of profit.
Debit: $0.79-$0.97
Max loss: $0.97
BE: $214.03
Mgmt: Monitor NFP and market breadth; close at 50% loss.
Traders expecting sharp post-earnings drop.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIf AMZN breaks below $230.43 with bearish momentum → Enter 2026-07-31 $220 put at $4.55-$5.56 for downside protection
IFIf AMZN stays below $235 amid persistent sell-off → Sell 2026-07-31 $260/$270 call spread at $1.46-$1.79 for premium decay
Exit Triggers
EXITIf AMZN rebounds above $235 → Close all bearish positions to limit losses

Tactical Summary

AMZN near $235 max pain with positive dealer gamma, but broad tech sell-off (QQQ -3.3%) creates downside risk. Short-term bearish; support $220.79, resistance $247.44. Top play: call credit spread for range-bound bias; long put for tail risk. Invalidation at $235.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 23, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.