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AMZN

Amazon.com, Inc.Close $232.69EOD only

Max Pain

$232.50

Next expiry Jun 29, 2026

Expected Move

±$4.59

2.0% from close

Price Gap

-0.19

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.61

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 26, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AMZN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 26, 2026 close

AMZN Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 29, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish bias near-term due to pinning below spot at $230-232, pulling price downward. Strong dealer long gamma supports but spot 4.4% above MP weakens support. VIX moderate; upside limited without catalyst.

Confidence:

8.5 / 10

Base 5, -1 pinning below spot, +1 GEX flow aligned, -0.5 spot distance, +0.5 VIX. Net 5.0 neutral: conflicting forces.

Supports: +$229M positive gamma, bullish flow, VIX < 20, normal vol, support at $225-230
Conflicts: Spot above pinning, lack of catalyst, tech sector rally may fade, downward gamma pull

🔴Spot above $230-232 pinning: downward pull likely, potential drift toward $230

📊Flow bullish net premium, but pinning dynamics may dominate near term

⚠️GEX +$229M support holds, but fails to push higher without catalyst

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Normal vol: IV typical for current VIX (18). No volatility expansion expected near term.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning regime: +$229M total gamma concentrated near $230-232 max pain. Spot above, creating downward pressure towards pin.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish flow: net buyer premium, call skew elevated. Dealers hedged long gamma, but pinning offsets upside.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Above MP by ~4.4%. Pinning attraction higher than usual, expect drift toward $230.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Structural GEX and flow backdrop, no event catalyst. Pinning below spot suggests near-term pullback before continuation.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$234.32$245.96

Range $234-246; downward pinning from $230-232 likely to pull spot lower, bias to test $234 support.

Next 1 week

$231.74$248.54

Range $232-249; potential recovery after initial pullback, but upside capped by pinning.

Next 2 weeks

$225.39$254.89

Range $225-255; broader range with downside risk to $225 if pinning fails; upside limited.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $230 (2026-06-29); $232 (2026-07-01); $230 (2026-07-02)

EM guardrails: 2d $234.32/$245.96; 1w $231.74/$248.54

Support: $230.00 · $225.39

Resistance: $250.00 · $254.89 · $260.00

Structural: Max pain pins: $230 (Jun 29), $232 (Jul 1), $230 (Jul 2). 2d EM guardrails: $234.32/$245.96. Support: $230, $225.39. Resistance: $250, $254.89, $260. No gamma flip risk.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+229.1M

DEX: +106.7M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: +$229.1M total gamma, long gamma posture. Dealers buy dips, sell rallies. Net dealer delta +106.7M shares, bullish positioning but pinning below spot creates headwind.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV is in line with VIX (18); no clear overpricing. Normal environment supports directional trades.

Term structure: Flat to near-term backwardation? No event kinks. Jul 2 OPEX shows elevated gamma, but IV typical.

Skew: Call skew higher than puts, consistent with bullish flow. Consider selling puts at $230 support for premium, but beware pinning.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Strong net bullish premium of $427.6M, put/call vol ratio 0.46, indicating heavy call buying.

Directional prints: 9.4 call 242.5 OTM 2026-06-29 — Vol/OI 105:1, low OI. Likely opening long calls, bullish bet on spot rise. 17.2 call 245 OTM 2026-06-29 — Vol/OI 59:1, low OI. Aggressive call buying, bullish. 24.6 call 247.5 OTM 2026-06-29 — Vol/OI 41:1, low OI. Opening long calls, bullish sentiment.

Unusual: 22.4 put 242.5 ITM 2026-06-29 — Vol/OI 224:1, extreme. Could be opening long puts (bearish) or sold as part of spread; preferred read: hedging due to call flow. 10.4 put 237.5 OTM 2026-06-29 — Vol/OI 186:1, extreme. Likely opening; may be bearish speculation or sold premium; preferred read: sold given bullish context. 5.5 put 240 OTM 2026-06-29 — Vol/OI 99:1, high. Heavy put activity; likely opening for hedging or directional; preferred read: hedging or short put premium.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot 4.4% above MP: pinning weakens, pullback to $230 possible.

!VIX spike above 20 would change regime to high vol, hurting leveraged positions.

!Lack of catalyst: tech sector mean reversion could reverse gains.

!Gamma flip absent but large OI at $225-230 could get tested on selloff.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-31 $230.00/$225.00 put spread Why now: Defined-risk debit spread profits from downside move; OTM strikes reduce cost. Strong dealer long gamma supports but spot above MP weakens support.	Time decay and vega if volatility drops; spot may consolidate above MP.
Call credit spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-07-31 $260.00/$265.00 call spread Why now: Credit spread profits from time decay and theta; elevated IV from call flow boosts premium. Short call around resistance.	Spot rally above short strike; vega rise if vol spikes.
Long put	Weak	Buy 2026-07-31 $220.00 put Why now: Long put cheap insurance due to elevated IV; captures bearish move without defined risk.	Time decay if move delayed; IV crush reduces value.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread

Buy 2026-07-31 $230.00/$225.00 put spread

Debit spread targeting downside; limited loss if spot rallies.

Why this play: Best direct bearish play with defined risk; OTM strikes cheap, profits from pullback to $230 area.

Debit: $1.49-$1.82

Max loss: $1.82

BE: $228.18

Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks above $250 or before earnings.

Traders expecting moderate decline, want controlled risk.

Long Put

Buy 2026-07-31 $220.00 put

Outright put for maximum bearish exposure; elevated IV reduces cost.

Why this play: Cheap insurance with high upside; captures bearish move without spread constraints.

Debit: $3.40-$4.15

Max loss: $4.15

BE: $215.85

Mgmt: Set stop-loss at $4.15 premium; consider rolling if vol spikes.

Aggressive traders seeking high reward with higher risk tolerance.

Call Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-31 $260.00/$265.00 call spread

Selling OTM calls to collect premium; benefits from theta and capped risk.

Why this play: Bearish via time decay; profits if spot stays below $260, but limited upside compared to puts.

Credit: $0.90-$1.10

Max loss: $3.90

BE: $261.10

Mgmt: Close at 50% max profit or if spot nears $260.

Traders expecting flat to slightly bearish price action.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF spot breaches $230 support with bearish momentum → Buy 2026-07-31 $230/$225 bear put spread for <$1.82

IFIF spot continues decline below $225.39 → Buy 2026-07-31 $220 long put for <$4.15

IFIF spot rallies but fails near $260 resistance → Sell 2026-07-31 $260/$265 call credit spread for >$0.90

Exit Triggers

EXITIF spot closes above $250 → Exit all bearish plays

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias due to pinning below $230-232 resistance. Key support: $230, $225.39; resistance: $250, $254.89, $260. Top plays: bear put spread on breakdown, long put for deeper decline, call credit spread if rally fails. Exit if spot clears $250.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 29, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.